Negative momentum in the labor market and AI's adoption in the workplace will make the Fed’s unemployment outlook hard to achieve next year, @conorsen says (via @opinion) https://t.co/vQoZK8srw6 ...

Roger, settle this for us. Was it hawkish. Was it doubbish.The fact that they're going to buy bonds on the short end, does that have the same impact uh as it just a deeper cut. No, I I think they're trying to avoid sending the message that the buying bonds on the short end had anything to do with monetary policy. Um was it hawkish. Was it dovish.I'd have to say it was uh distinctly undecided. You know, as you point out, there were three descents. One in favor of more uh reductions, two in favor of holding.a ...

to follow up on your comments about job growth. Why is it so much worse than the official data is suggesting. >> Oh, well, we just we know I think it's it's um this is I don't think this is particularly controversial.There's a it's very difficult to to estimate job growth in real time. They don't count everybody. They have a survey and there's been something of a systematic overcount.And so we we expected and they correct it twice a year. So the last time they corrected it, we thought the correction would b ...

Uh thank you uh Mr. . Chairman for taking our questions here. Um the uh you had previously described rate cuts in terms of a riskmanagement framework and kind of following up on what Howard was asking um is the riskmanagement phase of rate cuts over here and uh um have you taken out sufficient uh insurance I guess against potential weakness in terms of the data we might get next week when it comes to employment.So we're going to get a great deal of data between now and the and the January meeting and I'm su ...

Joining us to discuss this morning, Goldman Sachs head of investment grade credit, Johnny Fine is back at Post9. JF, it's great to see you again. Thanks for coming in.>> Great to be on. Thanks for having me. >> What's your thinking right now on what they will do, should do.>> Uh, so I think they will cut. I think they should cut. I think they will be hawkish in terms of the rhetoric following that cut in the press conference. And I don't think they should be. Um, I think they should be very very patient and ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has the potential to rise even if the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not cut interest rates, primarily due to strong earnings growth despite some economic indicators showing weakness [3][4]. Economic Indicators - Recent retail sales numbers were weak, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) did not show strong performance, indicating mixed economic signals [3]. - The unemployment rate is increasing, which raises concerns about the Fed's timing in making rate cuts [4]. Earnings Performance - Analysts had anticipated low single-digit increases in earnings for the first three quarters of the year, but actual earnings growth came in at 10% to 15% [3][4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is facing challenges that may not be resolved by lowering interest rates, including retiring baby boomers and a skills mismatch among workers [5][6]. - Despite strong GDP growth projected at around 4% for the second and third quarters, payroll employment growth is lagging, suggesting productivity increases are outpacing job growth [6]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed's potential rate cuts may not significantly impact the bond market, as seen in previous instances where rate cuts did not lead to lower bond yields [7][8]. - Inflation remains around 3%, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate adjustments [8]. Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing sentiment that if the Fed lowers rates, it could reduce the risk of economic weakness, but persistent inflation may lead to future rate hikes [8][9]. - Concerns exist about a potential "meltup" in the stock market, where rapid price increases could lead to instability [11].

Monetary Policy Outlook - Morgan Stanley no longer anticipates a December Fed rate cut [1] - The bank now forecasts three rate cuts in 2025: January, April, and June [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains its terminal rate forecast at 3-325% [1] Economic Indicators - Stronger payrolls data reduces the perceived risk of rising unemployment [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point, influenced by recent job cuts from major companies like Amazon and UPS, despite a lack of official employment data due to a government shutdown [1][2] - Amazon announced a reduction of 14,000 jobs, while UPS has cut 48,000 positions this year, indicating a trend of workforce reductions among large corporations [1][2] - The job cuts are seen as a potential catalyst for further Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, with major indices reaching record highs [2][3] Group 2 - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise in the coming quarters, which could be perceived as beneficial for the market as it may prompt the Fed to take action [3][4] - There is a concern that the current job losses and rising unemployment may eventually lead to negative economic implications, despite some believing that bad news could be good for the market [4][5] - The lack of recent data complicates the understanding of the economic landscape, as companies are providing insights into their operations amidst the job cuts [5][6] Group 3 - The layoffs at UPS are attributed to a reversal of pandemic-driven demand, suggesting that the company cannot sustain its previous workforce levels [8] - In contrast, Amazon's job cuts are viewed as a strategic move to maintain capital discipline and focus on high-potential investments, indicating a different narrative behind their workforce reduction [9][10] - The differing stories of Amazon and UPS highlight the complexities of the current job market, where job cuts may coexist with productivity gains [10]

So today is our latest installment with a closer look at the labor market and jobs. Joining us now is John Leer, chief economist at Morgan Morning Consults. This is a firm that specializes in online survey research.Uh and John, it's great to have you on. Highfrequency data. What is it showing you. How do you gather it and what is it showing you.>> Yeah, what it's showing is a labor market that has consistently weakened over the last four weeks. I don't think it's falling off a cliff, but we're certainly in ...

Monetary Policy - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will approach additional rate cuts very cautiously [1] - Inflation risks remain more prominent than the threat of higher unemployment [1]