Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 Index and its ETFs, such as SPY and VOO, are expected to experience high volatility due to various catalysts including macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and earnings reports [1] Group 1: Market Volatility - Investors are likely to react strongly to upcoming macro data, which could influence market sentiment and trading behavior [1] - Geopolitical events are anticipated to add to the uncertainty in the market, potentially impacting investor confidence [1] - Earnings reports from key companies will also play a significant role in determining market direction and volatility [1]

Market Reaction - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) experienced a rapid rally followed by a swift decline after the report was released [1] - The bond market reacted more strongly compared to the equity market [1] Analyst Background - The portfolio manager has over 10 years of experience in global markets, focusing on managing multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios [1] - The approach combines top-down macro analysis with bottom-up stock selection and real-time positioning [1] Investment Focus - The analysis emphasizes earnings, technological disruption, policy shifts, and capital flows to identify mispriced opportunities [1] - Insights are shared on Seeking Alpha, highlighting high-conviction ideas and contrarian views on both growth and value stocks [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of combining top-down macroeconomic analysis with bottom-up stock selection to identify mispriced investment opportunities in global markets [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company employs a flexible equity fund management approach, focusing on fundamental equity research and macro and geopolitical strategy [1] - It manages multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios, indicating a diversified investment approach [1] - The analysis includes real-time positioning using tools like Bloomberg, models, and data to enhance decision-making [1] Group 2: Focus Areas - Key focus areas include earnings, technological disruption, policy shifts, and capital flows, which are critical for identifying potential investment opportunities [1] - The company aims to uncover mispriced opportunities before the market recognizes them, highlighting a proactive investment strategy [1] Group 3: Communication and Insights - The company shares high-conviction ideas and contrarian views on platforms like Seeking Alpha, providing deep breakdowns of both growth and value stocks [1] - Following the company on social media platforms is encouraged for more insights, indicating an active engagement with the investment community [1]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 has shown strong momentum, reaching new all-time highs, and is expected to continue this trend into 2026 with projected gains of 12% to 15% [7][10]. Market Momentum - The S&P 500 has been up for seven consecutive months, with potential for an eighth month in December, indicating a robust market despite being stretched [2]. - Global participation in market gains is noted, with other countries also making new highs, suggesting a broader bullish sentiment [2]. Bull Market Characteristics - The current bull market in the US is entering its fourth year, with historical data indicating that bull markets of this length typically last an average of eight years [6]. - Key drivers of this bull market are identified as strong earnings and profit margins, with recent earnings seasons showing new highs in profit margins [4][5]. Sector Performance - A rotation in sector performance is observed, with industrials and financials taking the lead as tech stocks pull back slightly [3][11]. - The strategy for 2026 includes a focus on cyclicals, particularly in industrials, financials, and technology, while maintaining an equal weight in tech exposure [12][13]. International Markets - European markets have outperformed the US, with the German DAX breaking out to levels not seen since 2007, indicating potential for continued strong performance relative to the US [14][18]. - A diversified portfolio with a significant allocation to developed international markets is recommended, as these markets may continue to perform well [16][19]. Commodities and Investor Sentiment - Gold and silver have seen significant price increases, with gold up 70% and silver up 170% for the year, indicating strong investor sentiment [21]. - The potential for both gold and the stock market to rise together is highlighted, suggesting a favorable environment for commodities [22]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to dollar-cost average into the market to mitigate risks associated with volatility and potential pullbacks [34][36]. - Maintaining a diversified portfolio is emphasized, with a recommendation to explore sectors beyond the well-known tech giants [35].

Market Outlook for 2026 - The market indicates positive underlying economic factors despite business challenges in the current year [2] - Broadening market trends are expected to continue, benefiting growth stocks into 2026 [3] - Momentum heading into the new year is strong, supported by earnings and a potentially stable or easing Federal Reserve policy [4] - Confusion around market leadership (Mag 7 vs broader market) is expected to persist, requiring focus on earnings and Fed policy [9] Historical Context & Potential Risks - The average bull market lasts about five years, suggesting the current one is still relatively early [6] - Stocks have only risen for four consecutive years with double-digit percentage gains once in the last 100 years, highlighting potential for a market correction [10] Supporting Factors - Constructive elements from a major bill passed this summer are beginning to materialize [7] - Clarity around tariff policy, consumer-related factors (back tax refunds), and deregulation efforts are expected to support business growth [7] - Fundamental underpinnings and earnings are supporting current valuations [8]

I think for the near-term and near-term in this context, May being 2026, I think we should expect more M&A. And one of the reasons why I say that is because on one hand, you're seeing reasonably strong equity markets and some stability in rates. And, you know, you look at Treasury volatility, that's much lower.Rates may not be as low as some would like, but the rate volatility is lower. It sets a better platform. But I think the other sort of overarching theme here is that, you know, we have this k-shaped e ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "The American Bubble," highlighting its prevalence in recent discussions about the stock market and economic conditions [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic factors, stock selection, and real-time positioning in identifying investment opportunities [1]. - It mentions the focus on earnings, technological disruption, policy shifts, and capital flows as critical elements for recognizing mispriced opportunities in the market [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article outlines a strategy that combines top-down macro analysis with bottom-up stock selection to manage multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios [1]. - It indicates that the author shares high-conviction ideas and contrarian views on both growth and value stocks, aiming to provide deep insights into market dynamics [1].

Core Insights - FedEx reported fiscal second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations for both earnings and revenue, raising its full-year guidance due to stronger package pricing, higher U.S. volumes, and ongoing cost-cutting initiatives [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for the quarter were $4.82 per share, surpassing analysts' expectations of $4.11 [1] - Revenue increased to $23.5 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $22.78 billion [1] Operational Highlights - Consolidated operating performance improved with strengthened pricing across U.S. domestic and International Priority services, alongside growth in U.S. domestic package volumes [2] - Structural cost reductions remained on track, although gains were partially offset by higher wage and transportation expenses, global trade policy changes, and costs related to grounding the MD11 aircraft fleet [2] Segment Performance - The FedEx Express segment showed stronger operating results, with operating margin expanding by 100 basis points to 7.7%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 6.4% [3] - FedEx Freight segment results declined due to lower shipment volumes and rising wage expenses, incurring $152 million in one-time spin-off-related costs during the quarter [4] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, FedEx raised its revenue growth forecast to 5%–6% from a prior range of 4%–6% and increased its adjusted earnings outlook to $14.80–$16.00 per share before mark-to-market pension adjustments, compared to the previous range of $14.20–$16.00 [5] - The planned spin-off of FedEx Freight is on schedule for June 1, 2026, with the business expected to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol FDXF [4]

Let's get to the broader markets. Our next guest is bullish about the new year. Says worries about tech's high valuations are misplaced.Joining us here this morning at Post9 is Tally Leisure, chief market strategist at the Wealth Consulting Group. Nice to have you in T. Welcome.>> Thank you. Good to be here. At least to have you, Dad.>> You're uh you're pretty constructive on next year. >> Yes. And I'm glad we're sitting down for that conversation because we see the S&P 500 achieving 85 8500 >> 8500 driven ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street strategists are largely optimistic about S&P 500 earnings growth, projecting earnings per share in 2026 to be between $300 and $320, indicating a year-over-year growth of 11% to 19% from the expected levels of this year [1] Valuation Perspectives - Some strategists believe the elevated forward price-earnings (P/E) ratio is justified and sustainable, which could lead to above-average market returns in 2026 [2] - Conversely, others view the high P/E as a potential headwind for the market, suggesting that it may revert to historical averages, which could limit returns [3] Market Timing and Valuation - Evidence indicates that the forward P/E ratio does not effectively predict stock market performance over a one-year period, with a weak correlation of -0.12 observed [4] - Analysts from Schwab emphasize that valuation is not a reliable market-timing tool, noting that high forward P/E ratios have historically been associated with both negative and positive returns [5] Market Trends - The stock market generally trends upward, even during periods of high P/E ratios, as indicated by the greater number of data points on the right side of the y-axis in historical charts [6] - The increase in earnings expectations is a significant driver of stock prices, contributing to the market rally observed this year despite flattening P/E ratios [7] Earnings Growth vs. Valuation - Falling valuations do not necessarily lead to declining stock prices; stocks can appreciate if earnings grow at a faster rate than prices [8]