Traders are about to see if earnings justify the optimism priced into the US stock market https://t.co/3DmgKG46uo ...

Earnings Season Outlook - The options market implies JP Morgan's stock price will move approximately 3% on the day of its earnings report and about 3.6% by the end of the week, aligning with the eight-quarter average [1] - Netflix is expected to experience a stock price move of around 8% following its earnings release [1] Trading Strategy - A put spread collar strategy is suggested for a broadly held stock, involving buying 1225 puts, selling 1125 puts, and selling 1325 calls for August 22nd weekly options [3] - This strategy offers approximately 8% upside potential and 8% downside protection, corresponding to the implied move, with the expectation of "ball crush" after [3] Company Analysis - One company is described as an "unregulated utility" with a great business model, but its stock price is extended relative to its 150-day moving average [2] - Hedging is recommended for this company going into earnings due to its widespread ownership [2]

Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesGetty Images Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) is scheduled to announce its earnings around Tuesday, July 15, 2025. The consensus for earnings is set at approximately $1.75 per share, reflecting an increase of about 16% from the previous year, while revenues are anticipated to grow by nearly 5%. Growth is expected to be fueled by a rise in assets under custody and administration, which exceeded $53 trillion in the last quarter, along with continuing cost reductions and a g ...

My next guest is expecting all of this bullish momentum to continue. He says investors should look past any soft patches and focus on what's warning. Jim Karen working.Jim Karen is CIO of Cross Asset Solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Manager. I'm not saying you're recommending Bitcoin. Maybe you are.I don't know. I'm not and it's not part of it. Uh Palunteer.No. Um what is driving this momentum. Is it you know I the little fear and greed index is back to I think greed or extreme greed levels.Um but wha ...

Tech Sector Analysis - Tech earnings continue to print well into the double digits, reaching all-time highs, driven by fundamentals rather than just multiple expansion [1] - The value of tech in portfolios is significant, especially with tariff uncertainty, making US growth exposure valuable [2] - Overweighting tech in portfolios can be justified if earnings continue to print and multiples expand, particularly if a tariff-induced slowdown occurs [3] - Quality active management is crucial within the tech sector, specifically within the "Magnificent 7" portion [4] Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The market is still awaiting the bite of tariffs, with a wide range of potential outcomes [5][6] - Commentary on consumer behavior and business investment decisions is important in assessing the impact of tariffs [6] - Focus should be on how tariff rates on major partners (Canada, Mexico, China) affect the economy, while monitoring GDP resilience [8] - There are concerns about the lower cohort, with negative year-on-year card spend and light comps in certain sectors [7] Investment Strategy - A balanced approach in a multi-asset portfolio is currently most appropriate [10] - Mid-single-digit yields on core fixed income are competitive with mid-single-digit earnings yields on equities, given elevated multiples [11] - The strategy is to remain patient, vigilant, and opportunistic, waiting for the next bout of volatility [12] - US growth is expected to be the dominant driver of 10-year Treasury yields in the long term, with yields in the mid-4% range commensurate with US growth [14]

Schneider, senior U.S. Portfolio strategist at Goldman Sachs. Ben, great to have you here. Good morning.We got to start off with the news. You're changing your S&P price targets for three months, six months. And also the next year let's do the 12 month horizon 6900 double digit.About a 1,011% rise from here. What is the catalyst. Right now we're already at all time highs.That's right. >> And when we sent out this note to clients, the real message was even though the S&P 500 has rallied by 25% over the last ...

Welcome back. NASDAQ hitting a record high today. Nvidia becoming the first company ever to reach $4 trillion in market cap.Question now, should you continue to lean into that trade or diversify elsewhere. Joined now by Elizabeth Burton, chief investment strategist for Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Welcome back.It's good to see you. Good to see you. You're on the diversification train, right.Don't don't just lean into tech or or large cap. We're always on the diversification train. Yeah, but I mean, you k ...

Market Outlook - Verdens Capital advisors haven't set a specific S&P 500 target for a year, focusing on earnings as the primary driver [3] - The market's continued record highs, despite unresolved tariff issues, make the industry cautious about the second half of the year [6] - Concerns exist regarding the long-term economic impact of global debt exceeding 100% of GDP in many developed economies [8] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The industry notes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to delay interest rate cuts due to uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [9][10] - The potential September rate cut by the Fed is now viewed as a 50-50 chance, contingent on upcoming data and tariff implications [15] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the need to balance concerns about slowing growth and a potentially cracking labor market with the unknown impact of tariffs on inflation [12][13][14] Trade and Tariffs - The market initially reacted negatively to the Trump administration's worst-case tariff scenarios, but rebounded when less severe outcomes materialized [5][6] - The postponement of tariffs to August delays the Fed's ability to assess their impact on inflation [9] - The ultimate impact of tariffs on businesses and consumers remains uncertain, requiring a wait-and-see approach [14]

Group 1 - Netflix is expected to announce Q2 2025 earnings on July 17, 2025, with revenues projected at approximately $11 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year, and earnings projected at $7.06 per share, up from $4.88 last year [2] - The revenue growth is attributed to recent price hikes and increasing advertising revenue, with the standard HD plan price raised by $2.50 to $18 per month and the Premium plan increased to $25 per month [2] - Netflix's advertising technology enhancements, including the launch of an in-house ad tech platform in the U.S. in April, are expected to improve ad capabilities and pricing realizations [2] Group 2 - Content costs for Netflix are anticipated to rise this year, as the company expands into live sports, which may lead to higher production and licensing expenses [3] - Netflix's current market capitalization stands at $551 billion, with total revenue over the last twelve months at $40 billion, operating profits at $11 billion, and net income at $9.3 billion [4] Group 3 - Historical data shows that Netflix has had 19 earnings data points in the past five years, with 42% resulting in positive one-day returns, which increases to 64% over the past three years [5] - The median of the positive one-day returns is 11%, while the median of the negative returns is -6.9% [5] Group 4 - A strategy to examine the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings can be beneficial, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns exhibit high correlation [6]

streaming. Go to CNBC. com plus now.>> Welcome back. Tech stocks driving the S&P 500 today to a new intraday high yet again. Our next guest says to stick with those winners in the second half of the year.Joining us now at post nine is Michael Pappas of Advisors at Rockefeller. Welcome back. Great.So you still want to ride this this winning trade. Why so. Look, I just think.>> Again technology is changing everything that we have. The metrics have actually changed in the way we evaluate jobs. I think this is ...