Shep. We also seem to get confirmation of something that the treasury secretary has pretty much signaled he doesn't want the job at the fed. He likes where he is.Yes, he does. And the president made very clear that he had four candidates. He talked about the two Kevins.Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as being contenders. But he made clear that Scott Bessant really wanted to stay in his role as treasury secretary. He was he was enjoying the job.And he made clear that, look, Scott Besson's name can come off the ...

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets [1] - He has worked as a financial journalist and covered various futures markets in the U.S. [1] - Jim is the proprietor of an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service [2] Group 2 - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim has also been a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service [2] - He was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] Group 3 - Jim provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

Mortgage rates have dropped, but it's not likely tied to the latest Fed news. Here’s why waiting for a Fed rate cut could be a poor strategy for homebuyers. https://t.co/FgViI8SVoQ ...

Live Q&A: When will the Fed cut rates?Bloomberg journalists answer your questions about the double dissent, market reaction and the growing pressure from President Trump on Jerome Powell in a Live Q&A on July 31 at 11:30 a.m. EDT https://t.co/METERvzH7w ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The passage states that the passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US Senate, an increase in the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and a decline in China's domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a rebound in copper prices. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly go long on the main contract at low prices, while paying attention to relevant support and resistance levels [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data 1.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - On July 17, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,840 yuan, down 140 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 54,262 lots, a decrease of 6,664 lots; the open interest was 153,791 lots, down 6,666 lots; the inventory was 68,127 tons, a decrease of 8,103 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,020 yuan, down 40 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 180 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous day; the spot premium or discount of electrolytic copper in Guangzhou was 65 yuan, up 5 yuan; in North China, it was - 120 yuan, up 20 yuan; in East China, it was - 15 yuan, up 25 yuan [2]. - The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 10 yuan, down 20 yuan; the spread between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 20 yuan, down 10 yuan; the spread between the second continuous and the third continuous contract was 40 yuan, unchanged [2]. 1.2 London Copper - On July 17, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,678 US dollars, up 41 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 122,150 tons compared to before [2]. - The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 58.71 US dollars, up 5.78 US dollars; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 113 US dollars, up 9.23 US dollars. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0430, down 0.05 [2]. 1.3 COMEX Copper - On July 17, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.498 US dollars, down 0.02 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory was 241,814 tons, an increase of 3,550 tons [2]. 2. Company Production - Rio Tinto's copper production in Q2 2025 was 229,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 9%. Its annual production guidance for 2025 is 780,000 - 850,000 tons [2]. 3. Macro and Industry Situation 3.1 Macro - The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold, digital currencies, etc. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the US consumer inflation rate in June. However, the US producer inflation rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The increasing expectation of Powell's early departure raises the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September or December [4]. 3.2 Upstream - The import index of Chinese copper concentrates increased from last week. The port throughput and inventory of copper concentrates in China changed. The restriction on high - quality scrap copper exports in Europe, the Sino - US trade dispute, and the negative or rising spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper affect the scrap copper market, with expected changes in production and import volume in July and tight supply - demand expectations [4]. - Some copper smelters had production adjustments. Glencore's 200,000 - ton SBX copper smelter in the Philippines, the Namibian roweb copper smelter of Zhongkuang Resources, and Glencore's 350,000 - ton anode copper plant in Chile suspended production. The Kaooe Kakula copper smelter in Congo (Kinshasa) may be put into operation in June 2025 with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Several projects in China are in progress or planned [4]. - The weekly processing fee of copper in northern and southern China changed. The planned maintenance capacity of domestic smelters in July may decrease, and the production and import volume of domestic copper in July are expected to increase. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area increased, while the social inventory decreased. The inventory of LME electrolytic copper increased, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased due to shipments to the US [4]. 3.3 Downstream - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and cable in East China decreased. Some refined copper rod enterprises planned to reduce production and inventory in July, but new orders improved slightly. The operating rates of refined and recycled copper rod production, copper wire and cable production, copper strip production, and copper foil production changed, with different trends [4]. - Affected by factors such as the Sino - US trade situation and the traditional off - season, the operating rates of domestic copper enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - The report suggests that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly go long on the main contract at low prices, paying attention to the support levels of 76,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.2 for US copper, as well as the resistance levels of 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,800 - 10,000 for London copper, and 6.0 - 7.0 for US copper [4]

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The President has stated he will not fire the Federal Reserve Chair [3] - The Federal Reserve claims its decisions are data-driven, which is causing frustration for the President [6] - Inflation data has been better than expected, with the "super core metric" (consumer services excluding rents) being 150 basis points lower than when the Fed began cutting rates [7] - History suggests the Fed typically follows market pricing, implying rates should eventually decrease [7] Tariffs & Inflation - The administration argues that tariffs are not inflationary and are being absorbed by foreign profit margins [6][7] - The US could collect upwards of $300 billion in tariff revenue annually [8][12] - Import prices of goods directly impacted by tariffs have fallen, suggesting tariffs are being built into margins [11][12] - The tariffs' impact on inflation has been minimal, contrary to earlier predictions [12] US Economic Leverage - The US, as the world's largest consumer, dictates market terms, giving it leverage in negotiations [14]

Fiscal Policy & Legislation - Senate passed the Trump mega bill, heading to the House with potential votes as soon as tomorrow, aiming for the president's desk by July 4th [2] - Last-minute changes to the bill include the potential removal of the excise tax on solar and wind [3] - The combination of the deficit impact from the budget bill and tariffs appears to be neutral, according to the CBO [15][16] Bond Market & Interest Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield at 427 basis points is viewed positively, suggesting growth without hyperinflation or uncontrolled deficit [12][15] - Goldman Sachs raises its 2025 Fed rate cut forecast to three from one (September, October, and December) due to smaller-than-expected tariff effects [16] - A September 18th Fed rate cut is anticipated, driven by the expectation that inflation will not spike in June and July [20] Currency & International Markets - The weakness in the dollar is a significant trend, powering investor portfolios forward through international stock exposure [6] - International stocks have been outperforming US stocks, with a 126 percentage points gap through Friday, marking the widest gap in 24 years [8] - Even stripping out the effect of the weak US dollar, international stocks are still up 11% year-to-date, driven by earnings growth in regions like South Korea and Europe [9] Company Specific - General Motors (GM) is being re-evaluated due to potential adjustments to trade rules, with the market possibly anticipating higher earnings and a higher multiple [13]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve, indicating potential rate cuts in September due to weak consumer spending and subdued core PCE inflation [1][8]. Core Insights - Consumer spending has shown signs of persistent weakness, particularly in services, with a nominal increase of only 0.1% MoM and flat real terms, leading to an overall decline in personal spending [5][7]. - Core PCE inflation increased by 0.179% MoM, slightly above expectations, but still subdued enough to support the case for rate cuts [4][8]. - The report highlights a significant decline in travel-related spending, particularly in air travel and hotel accommodations, which have seen declines every month this year [7][8]. Summary by Sections Consumer Spending - Personal spending fell by 0.1% MoM in nominal terms and 0.3% in real terms, with goods spending declining by 0.8% MoM [5]. - Services spending showed unexpected weakness, with a nominal increase of only 0.1% MoM and flat in real terms, indicating a broader trend of reduced consumer demand [5][7]. Inflation Metrics - Core PCE inflation was reported at 0.179% MoM, slightly stronger than consensus but still indicative of a soft inflation environment [4][8]. - The report suggests that weak consumer demand limits the ability of firms to pass through tariff price increases, reducing the risk of broad-based inflation [8]. Employment Implications - The report indicates that weaker consumer demand could lead to softer hiring, raising downside risks to the Federal Reserve's employment mandate [8].

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index saw the largest intraday swing since 2008 in the April 8 trading session. The index closed 0.1% higher yesterday after swinging from a loss of around 5.2% to a gain of 4.5% at intraday extremes, marking its largest intraday comeback since Oct. 10, 2008. Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ) , which tracks the Nasdaq Composite Index, also saw wild swings of 10% from high to low in a single day and closed 0.1% lower. While most of the stocks in the ETF portfolio have ...