Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a positive economic return of 2.6% for the quarter, consisting of a $0.34 dividend and a modest $0.11 decline in book value to $8.81 [7][22] - The estimated book value per common share as of April 30 is between $7.74 and $8.06, reflecting a decline in April due to market volatility [8][21] - The leverage ratio was reduced from 7.1x to the mid-6s during the quarter, indicating a cautious approach in response to market conditions [21][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency RMBS portfolio increased by 9.5% quarter over quarter, with investments focused on higher coupon securities [17] - The company rotated its allocations from lower coupons to higher coupons, capitalizing on attractive valuations [18] - Agency CMBS exposure remained at approximately 15% of the total investment portfolio, with new purchases yielding low double-digit ROEs [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. Treasury yields declined by 20 to 40 basis points across the yield curve during the first quarter, driven by concerns over economic growth [10][11] - The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in deeper cuts, with expectations for the target rate to be reduced three to four times in 2025 [12] - Agency mortgages underperformed treasuries in April due to increased interest rate volatility and market sell-offs [21][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on higher coupon Agency RMBS, anticipating improved demand as interest rate volatility declines [18][23] - The strategy includes increasing allocations to specified pools with predictable prepayment characteristics, particularly in a slowing economic environment [18] - The company is cautious about agency mortgages in the near term but maintains a favorable long-term outlook due to expected improvements in investor demand [8][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about tightening financial conditions and the potential impact of U.S. trade policies on economic growth [5][6] - The outlook remains cautious due to elevated interest rate volatility and policy uncertainty, but there is optimism for a steeper yield curve and improved demand in the long term [23] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining liquidity to navigate potential market stress while capitalizing on investment opportunities as conditions improve [23] Other Important Information - The company noted that prepayment speeds remained low due to limited purchase and refinancing activity, but a decline in mortgage rates is expected to increase prepayment speeds in the coming months [6][7] - The funding market for the company's assets has been stable, with repo spreads remaining attractive [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on leverage management during volatile periods - Management indicated that leverage was reduced by about 0.5 turns in April due to increased uncertainty regarding monetary and fiscal policy [26][28] Question: Comments on returns and spreads - Management noted that levered ROEs are in the low 20s on higher coupons, indicating attractive spreads [30] Question: Changes to the hedge portfolio - The hedge ratio was increased in response to uncertainty about near-term monetary policy, maintaining a mix of swaps and treasuries [34] Question: Impact of portfolio size on dividend levels - Management confirmed that the recent dividend reduction is still comfortably covered by current earnings [36] Question: Opportunity set in agency compared to previous peaks - Management expressed that the current opportunity in mortgages is attractive, but there is caution due to potential inflation and its impact on monetary policy [40][41] Question: Relative value of loan balance pools - Management discussed the rotation from low loan balance pools to more credit-constrained pools, driven by economic uncertainty and pricing dynamics [42][44] Question: Forward rate outlook and hedge portfolio development - Management emphasized a conservative approach to hedging and leverage, given the uncertainty in interest rate cuts [50][52] Question: Opportunities in commercial credit - Management stated that they are currently not looking to add credit exposure and have sold remaining credit investments, focusing solely on agency assets [61][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the fiscal situation in China, expecting further fiscal easing ahead due to ongoing economic challenges [1][9]. Core Insights - Fiscal revenue growth improved to +0.3% year-on-year in March from -1.6% in January-February, driven by stronger-than-expected activity data [2][5]. - Fiscal expenditure growth rose to +5.7% year-on-year in March from +3.4% in January-February, primarily due to increased spending in energy saving, environmental protection, and agriculture [6]. - The ongoing property downturn continues to negatively impact local government funding, with land sales revenue declining by -16.3% year-on-year in March [7][8]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - On-budget fiscal revenue growth was +0.3% year-on-year in March, a recovery from -1.6% in January-February, with tax revenue contraction narrowing to -2.2% [2][5]. - Fiscal expenditure growth increased to +5.7% year-on-year in March, up from +3.4% in January-February, driven by specific sectors [6]. Property Sector Impact - Property-related government revenue remained weak, with land sales revenue down -16.3% year-on-year in March, indicating continued pressure from the property market [7][8]. - The contraction in property-related tax revenue narrowed to -0.1% in March from -11.4% in January-February, suggesting some stabilization [7]. Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD) - The AFD metric narrowed to -10.9% of GDP in March from -11.6% in February on a 3-month moving average basis, while it widened slightly on a 12-month moving average basis [3][8]. - The forecast for the AFD metric is expected to widen by 4.1 percentage points of GDP to 14.5% in 2025, indicating a shift in fiscal policy from a growth drag to a potential driver [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trend of proactive fiscal spending in the early months of the year, with a significant focus on social welfare and public services, despite a decline in overall fiscal revenue growth. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first two months, general public budget revenue reached 4.4 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, which is below the previous year's growth of 1.3% and the budget target of 0.1% [3] - The general public budget expenditure was 4.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slightly lower than the previous year's growth and the target of 4.4% [5] - The broad fiscal deficit reached 621.7 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, indicating significant expenditure pressure amid declining revenue [2] Group 2: Focus on Social Welfare - There was a notable increase in the proportion of expenditure directed towards social welfare, education, and employment, while infrastructure spending saw a decrease [6] - The central government's expenditure growth rose to 8.6%, while local government expenditure growth fell to 2.7% [5] - Personal income tax revenue showed a rebound with a growth rate of 26.7%, reflecting marginal improvements in residents' income [4] Group 3: Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue growth recorded a decline of 10.7%, falling short of the initial budget target of 0.7% [7] - Government fund expenditure growth decreased to 1.2%, which is below the initial target of 23.1% but higher than the previous year's growth of 0.2% [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Dollar (USD)** and its expected performance in **2025**, drawing parallels with **2017** and **2018**. The analysis is provided by **Morgan Stanley Research**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD Decline in 2017**: The USD declined in 2017 due to trade policy, global growth, and European politics, with fiscal and Fed policy being less supportive than anticipated. Similar factors are expected to contribute to a decline in 2025 [1][4][68]. 2. **Trade Policy**: In 2025, the USD is expected to be negatively impacted by trade policy, similar to 2017. The administration is likely to use tariffs as a negotiation tactic, particularly with China, Canada, and Mexico [77][78][80]. 3. **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy is not expected to be fully incorporated into growth expectations until a budget reconciliation bill is passed. This mirrors the situation in 2017, where deficit forecasts remained unchanged until late in the year [4][68][106]. 4. **Global Growth Expectations**: Global growth in 2025 is anticipated to align with expectations, contrasting with the faster-than-expected growth in 2017. This is expected to have a neutral or slightly negative impact on the USD [4][113]. 5. **European Politics**: Political stability in Europe is expected to improve, reducing EUR-negative risk premiums, similar to the underperformance of EU-skeptical parties in 2017 [4][69][117]. 6. **Central Bank Policies**: The Fed is expected to cut rates, while the ECB's policies may lead to a stronger EUR against the USD. This reflects the changes in central bank policies observed in 2017 [4][119][125]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Tariff Expectations**: The expectation of gradual increases in tariffs on imports from China and the Euro Area is highlighted, with a focus on the potential impact on the USD [78][99][103]. 2. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a significant divergence in investor expectations regarding trade policy, with many believing that tariffs will not escalate as much as previously anticipated [91][92]. 3. **Deficit Forecasts**: The analysis indicates that deficit expectations have widened significantly since the 2024 election, similar to the dynamics observed in 2016-2017 [108][109]. 4. **Market Positioning**: The USD has recently declined due to positioning by investors who expected more aggressive tariff measures than those announced [87][88]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected trends in the USD and the influencing factors.