Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Bostic, indicates that the current "healthy" state of the economy allows for a period of observation regarding how uncertainties will resolve [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has the flexibility to monitor economic conditions due to the overall health of the economy [1] - Bostic's comments suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of understanding economic uncertainties before making further decisions [1]

美联储理事沃勒：关税可能导致一次性的价格上涨，美联储可以对此持宽容态度。 ...

美联储戴利：美联储正在观望。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate within a range. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, but due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly in a consolidation phase. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in a short - term consolidation phase. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, and the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. In the short term, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited, mainly in a consolidation phase. Follow - up attention should be paid to external factors such as tariffs and the Fed, as well as domestic macro - economic indicators. [4]

美联储主席鲍威尔将于五分钟后在Thomas Laubach研究会议上致开幕词。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is awaiting more data to understand the impact of rising import tariffs on inflation and the economy, as current consumer inflation data appears to be mixed [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee from the Federal Reserve indicated that the mild consumer inflation data for April does not necessarily reflect the effects of increased import tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve is trying to discern the underlying trends amidst the "noise" in the data [1] - There is a need for more comprehensive data to accurately assess price movements and economic direction [1]

Core Insights - In April, the U.S. inflation rate decreased to 2.3%, contrary to analysts' expectations of maintaining the previous month's rate of 2.4% [1] - Despite the reduction of several tariffs announced by Trump on April 2, economists warn that the majority of the impact from import tariffs has yet to be realized [1] - Federal Reserve officials anticipate that price pressures will rise further, indicating ongoing concerns about inflation [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April was reported at 2.3%, down from 2.4% in March [1] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index also fell to 2.3% in March, remaining above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [1] Federal Reserve Dynamics - Trump has pressured Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, expressing frustration with the communication process [1] - The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure is the PCE rather than the CPI, highlighting a potential divergence in inflation assessment [1]

美联储的威廉姆斯：市场似乎相信美联储将把通胀率拉回2%。 ...

美国总统特朗普：与美联储主席鲍威尔的对话就像"对牛弹琴"。 ...

Mhmarkets迈汇：美元在美联储暗示无降息急迫性后保持强势 Mhmarkets迈汇表示，美元在周四对欧元保持稳定，此前美联储在周三发出警告称，高通胀和失业率上升对经济构成风 险，市场对美元的信心因此得到支撑。此外，华盛顿和北京之间的贸易紧张局势有望缓解，投资者正密切关注计划于周六 在瑞士举行的会议。 Mhmarkets迈汇认为，美联储在周三的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上维持利率不变，符合市场预期。然而，美联 储主席鲍威尔表示，目前尚不清楚经济是否会继续稳定增长，还是会因贸易不确定性增加和通胀可能飙升而放缓。鲍威尔 称："目前货币政策的适当反应并不明确，我们也不清楚应该采取什么行动。" Mhmarkets迈汇分析称，市场目前预计到今年年底将有三次降息，每次降息25个基点，下一次降息可能在7月或9月。然 而，鲍威尔的言论表明，美联储并不急于采取行动，而是希望等待更明确的经济数据来指导政策。 Mhmarkets迈汇引用澳大利亚联邦银行国际和可持续经济主管约瑟夫·卡普索的观点称："FOMC不想提前对美国经济的变化 做出反应，而是希望等待'硬'经济数据来指导其政策行动。"他还认为："我们预计鲍威尔主席和其他 ...