Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in response to economic slowdown and rising labor market risks, despite ongoing inflation concerns [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience amid high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, but significant slowdowns in labor markets and economic growth have been observed [1][6]. - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% [6]. - The core consumer price index rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [6]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices surged, with the Dow Jones reaching a new intraday high of 45,748.82 points [1][2]. - The market interpreted Powell's comments as a strong signal for potential rate cuts in September, leading to significant gains across major indices [1][2]. Political Pressures - Powell faces unprecedented political pressure from President Trump, who has been advocating for aggressive rate cuts and influencing Fed appointments [4][5]. - The upcoming September meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in recent years, as Powell navigates economic challenges alongside political and market pressures [5]. Regional Implications - A potential rate cut by the Fed could positively impact Asian economies, particularly smaller open economies that rely heavily on trade [8]. - The analysis suggests that while inflation pressures in Asia are low, many central banks are positioned to lower rates, providing opportunities for investment [8].

美联储鲍威尔将于周五(北京时间晚上10点)在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的全球央行年会上发表讲话。这 一夏季金融市场"年度大戏"被视为美联储货币政策未来走向的关键时刻。 支持降息的理由包括消费者物价因关税影响温和上升，就业市场出现降温迹象。但另一面，7月批发价 格录得三年来最大涨幅，就业仍处历史低位，美联储内部对通胀的担忧升温。最新公布的7月会议纪要 显示，多数官员预计通胀将短期回升，并最终传导至消费者。 市场人士认为，鲍威尔的措辞可能打破夏季以来的股市涨势。Ritholtz财富管理公司首席策略师Callie Cox指出："以目前的通胀和就业数据，鲍威尔很难确认市场几乎笃定的9月降息。"Neuberger Berman首 席投资官Shannon Saccocia则强调："去年正是在杰克逊霍尔，鲍威尔为政策行动定下基调，今年市场同 样寄予厚望。" 回顾历史，2022年鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的鹰派表态曾终结美股熊市反弹。分析师普遍认为，若鲍威尔此 次释放更多谨慎信号，美股夏季的低波动上涨行情或将戛然而止。 市场高度期待鲍威尔确认9月降息的前景。根据CME FedWatch工具，交易员周四押注美联储9月16-17日 会议上降 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of maintaining rates in May due to strong employment data and easing inflation pressures [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May exceeds 96%, indicating a strong consensus in the market [3]. - April's non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, significantly surpassing the expected 138,000, reflecting a robust labor market [3]. - The March PCE price index rose by 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE dropping to 2.6%, suggesting reduced short-term pressure for rate hikes [3]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Recent tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have emerged, with President Trump suggesting that the Fed should lower rates, which could undermine the Fed's independence [3][4]. - The upcoming press conference is crucial for understanding Fed Chair Powell's stance on inflation, economic outlook, and political pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - A hawkish signal from Powell could lead to a rebound in the dollar index, putting short-term pressure on the Chinese yuan, while long-term trends will depend on domestic economic resilience [5]. - If the Fed signals a stable liquidity environment without aggressive rate hikes, technology stocks may continue to perform well, driven by AI trends [5]. - Gold prices are sensitive to interest rates; maintaining current rates could enhance its appeal as a safe-haven asset, while oil prices will depend on the Fed's economic outlook [5]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Current market expectations indicate a 35% probability of a rate cut in June, suggesting that most believe the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The focus should be on whether the Fed's policy logic shifts from "anti-inflation priority" to "balancing growth and inflation," which will influence asset allocation strategies in the coming months [5].

美国总统特朗普：鲍威尔将面临大量政治压力。 ...