前言 10月2日，一直对关税"挺满意"的美国财长贝森特，竟主动放话说中美谈判要有"重大突破"。 此外，贝森特还在媒体前透露，中美高层将会在短时间内有所互动，显然对中美谈判结果势在必得。 是什么让贝森特态度如此反常 ？美方这次又在打什么主意？ 一个月内变脸比翻书还快 说变脸就变脸，比川剧还快。就在8月20日，贝森特还一副胸有成竹的样子，对媒体表示他对当前的关税水平"感到满意"。 话音还没落地多久，10月2日这天，同一个人却在镜头前信誓旦旦地预告，中美下一轮贸易谈判将会有"相当大的突破"。这前后不过40多天，态度转变之 快，让人都有点跟不上节奏。 更有意思的是，贝森特这次不光是口头上松口，还专门提到了农产品采购这个敏感话题。要知道，大豆贸易一直是中美经贸关系的晴雨表，也是美国农民最 关心的生计问题。 现在贝森特主动把这事儿拿出来说，说明什么？说明这事儿已经不能再拖了，压力大到了必须要正面回应的地步。从政策制定的角度看，财政部长这种级别 的官员，每一次公开表态都不是随口说说的。 特别是涉及到对华政策这种敏感话题，更是需要经过内部充分协调才会对外发声。那么问题来了，是什么样的压力，能让一个原本"满意"的人，在短短一个 ...

美国劳工统计局推迟了一份对未来通胀数据至关重要的年度报告，此举正值外界对美国关键经济数据准确性与政治化风险的担忧日益加剧之际。 周五，美国劳工统计局突然宣布，原定于下周二发布的2024年度消费者支出数据将被"重新安排至稍后日期"。美国劳工统计局并未解释推迟的原 因，也未提供新的发布时间表，仅表示"有更多信息时将通知用户"。 （美国劳工统计局官网显示年度消费者支出数据发布时间将被推迟） 每年9月左右，美国劳工统计局会发布上一年度的年度平均支出数据，例如2023年数据于2024年9月发布，显示所有消费者单位平均支出为77,280 美元（较2022年增长5.9%），税前收入增长8.3%。 这份年度报告是美国政府唯一提供消费者支出和收入完整信息的家庭调查数据，涵盖消费者活动、支出、收入和人口统计信息。更重要的是，该 数据用于确定来年消费者价格指数中特定商品和服务的权重。 缺乏解释的罕见延迟 此次发布的推迟之所以引起市场关注，关键在于其"异乎寻常"的沉默。 美国劳工统计局在公告中仅提及延期，但未提供任何背景说明，美国劳工部（统计局的上级部门）也未对此事发表评论。 分析人士指出，这与去年的情况形成鲜明对比。 本月早些时候 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in response to economic slowdown and rising labor market risks, despite ongoing inflation concerns [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience amid high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, but significant slowdowns in labor markets and economic growth have been observed [1][6]. - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% [6]. - The core consumer price index rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [6]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices surged, with the Dow Jones reaching a new intraday high of 45,748.82 points [1][2]. - The market interpreted Powell's comments as a strong signal for potential rate cuts in September, leading to significant gains across major indices [1][2]. Political Pressures - Powell faces unprecedented political pressure from President Trump, who has been advocating for aggressive rate cuts and influencing Fed appointments [4][5]. - The upcoming September meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in recent years, as Powell navigates economic challenges alongside political and market pressures [5]. Regional Implications - A potential rate cut by the Fed could positively impact Asian economies, particularly smaller open economies that rely heavily on trade [8]. - The analysis suggests that while inflation pressures in Asia are low, many central banks are positioned to lower rates, providing opportunities for investment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole annual meeting is a significant event for global central banks, with particular focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which may influence interest rate decisions and set the tone for global markets in the coming year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that inflation issues are not resolved, indicating insufficient reasons for rate cuts at this time [3] - Kansas City Fed President George emphasized that inflation is closer to 3% rather than the target of 2%, warning against premature easing that could alter public inflation expectations [3] - Overall, Fed officials appear cautious, believing it is not yet time to relax monetary policy [3] Group 2: Market Expectations vs. Fed Officials - The market is more optimistic, with nearly 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, and potential for four cumulative cuts over the next year [3] - Analysts caution that market expectations may be overly optimistic, with potential for a "hawkish surprise" if inflation rebounds or political pressures increase [3][4] Group 3: Economic Data and Uncertainty - Recent economic data has been mixed, with Fed officials prioritizing inflation risks, while employment data revisions have strengthened rate cut expectations [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed unexpected strength, complicating the Fed's decision-making process amid concerns over both weak employment and persistent inflation [4] Group 4: Political Pressures - The Fed faces political pressure from the White House, with President Trump criticizing Powell and pushing for changes in the Board of Governors that could influence rate decisions [5] - The independence and credibility of the Fed are under scrutiny due to these political dynamics [5] Group 5: Market Reactions - On August 21, U.S. stock markets declined, indicating investor caution despite expectations for rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty about future economic conditions [5] - The upcoming speech by Powell is critical, as it could lead to rapid market adjustments depending on whether he signals a hawkish or dovish stance [5][6]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the global central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which is viewed as a critical moment for the future direction of monetary policy [1] - Market expectations are high for Powell to confirm the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with a 73.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut during the September 16-17 meeting according to CME FedWatch [1] - Recent volatility in U.S. stock markets is noted, with the Nasdaq index down 2.4% for the week, the S&P 500 down 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.4% [1] Group 2 - Analysts warn that if Powell does not commit to or suggest that market expectations are excessive, it could lead to significant repricing of bond yields and risk assets [1] - Support for a rate cut is based on moderate consumer price increases due to tariffs and signs of cooling in the job market, but there are concerns about rising inflation as wholesale prices recorded their largest increase in three years [1] - Political pressure on Powell is increasing, with President Trump criticizing the Fed's slow rate cuts and calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook over alleged mortgage application fraud [2]

美联储内部分歧加剧，市场关注9月降息的可能性。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos近日发表文章称，美联储官员们虽然同意最终 需要恢复降息，但本周不会行动，他们对何时恢复降息存在严重分歧。 文章认为，目前，美联储内部已经分化为三个不同的阵营：一派想马上降息，担心劳动力市场恶化；中 间派想等更多数据确认关税影响温和；另一派则更谨慎，等看到明显经济疲软才行动。 这种内部分歧源于关税威胁引发通胀担忧，导致美联储此前屡屡暂停降息。 然而，随着关税传导的价格上涨幅度比预期温和，而就业市场显现疲软迹象，叠加特朗普的施压，联储 内部的分歧趋于复杂。 文章指出，焦点是周三FOMC会后鲍威尔在记者会上有关9月是否降息的暗示。 三大阵营的政策分歧日趋明显 按照Timiraos的说法，美联储内部的分化可以清晰地划分为三个主要阵营：中间的谨慎派、急于降息的 少数派，以及更保守的等待派。 中间派的代表包括旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利（Mary Daly），她在爱达荷州的一次会议上表示： "通胀前景一直过于不稳定，无法证明先发制人地降息以应对经济疲软是合理的。" 但她同时指出，由于利率仍处于紧缩水平，"你不能永 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's work remains unaffected by political pressure, as stated by Daly [1] Group 1 - Daly emphasized that the Federal Reserve operates independently and is not swayed by external political influences [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicated that it will take several months to clarify the impact of tariffs, expressing hope that political pressure will not influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently assessing the effects of tariffs on the economy [1] - There is a concern regarding the potential influence of political pressure on the Federal Reserve's policy-making [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee expresses hope that political pressures will not influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve amidst political pressures [1] - The statement reflects concerns about external influences on monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve aims to focus on economic indicators rather than political considerations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The head of the Atomic Energy Organization stated that Iran will not yield to authoritarian political pressure [1] Group 1 - Iran's commitment to its nuclear program remains steadfast despite external political pressures [1] - The organization emphasizes the importance of maintaining sovereignty in its nuclear decisions [1] - The statement reflects Iran's broader stance against perceived external interference in its domestic affairs [1]