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为什么判断今年不会再降息?
表舅是养基大户· 2025-08-23 13:33
大家周六晚上好,有点尴尬,之前说好的每周六晚上,贴一篇星球里的精选内容出来的,结果,过去两周的周末,都身体抱恙,没更新,咱们今天继续。 第一,上周的星球周度精选。 首先比较值得一说的是,截至今天,「表舅和表舅的朋友们」,这个从去年6月开始,仅仅运作了一年零两个月的知识星球, 正式迎来了第7000位小伙 伴。 这应该是金融类星球里,最快速度达到这一里程碑的(之一),希望这一 认真运营、只讲干货、理性客观 的内容社区,能被更多看到。 ...... 好了, 以下是本周的精选,大家扫码下图的二维码 ,即可进入。 今天这篇,我把上周做的, 针对央妈的二季度货币政策报告的解读 ,拿出来聊一下——其实,还是就着《 为什么我不看空债券? 》里的观点继续说,因 为,我们反复强调, 前所未有的低利率环境 ,是本轮股市走强的最强主线,没有之一,因此,货币政策的变化,其实和股债,都有直接的强关系。 另外, 结构化的货币工具 , 对新质生产力、对科技板块的资金浇灌 ,也是本轮科技牛市的主要动力之一,因此,无论从任何角度看,理解央妈的货政报 告,对投资权益、投资固收,都有很强的指导意义。 因此,还是拿出来,和大家交流一番。 | 沪指突破 ...
扛住美国关税冲击 欧元区PMI以15个月最快速度扩张
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 10:17
尽管受到美国关税的影响,欧元区私营部门仍以15个月以来的最快速度扩张,制造业摆脱了长达三年的低迷态势。标普全球编制的综 合采购经理人指数(PMI)从7月份的50.9升至8月份的51.1,进一步高于50的荣枯分界线。分析师此前预测为50.6。 服务业表现略有减弱,但仍符合预期,制造业PMI则跃升至50.5,打破了小幅放缓的预期,并实现了自2022年6月以来的首次扩张。德 国的制造业也接近结束长达三年的低迷期。 他表示:"美国的贸易政策正在产生影响。德国此前表现良好,这可能是因为美国客户提前采购,但现在订单也出现了下降。法国在过 去几个月里已经走出了外需下滑的困境,但新订单仍在下降。" 欧元区20国经济第二季度意外增长0.1%,但远低于此前三个月0.6%的增速,当时受到关税引发的囤货热潮的影响。通胀率徘徊在欧洲 央行设定的2%目标附近。 汉堡商业银行经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia周四表示:"情况正在好转。尽管面临美国关税和普遍的不确定性等不利因素,但欧元区各地的 企业似乎都表现得相当不错。" 欧元兑美元汇率稳定在1.1654,此前曾小幅下跌,而欧元区债券价格则继续下跌,德国10年期国债收益率上涨2个基 ...
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250821
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:17
地址 :北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 (100020) 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师:王静,执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明: 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版,复制,引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发,须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/08/21 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨,COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.00%报 3392.20 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银期货涨 1.51%报 37.90 美元/盎司。 2. 美国库存骤降推高油价,美油主力合约收涨 1.73%,报 62.84 美元/桶;布 伦特原油主力合约涨 1.76%,报 66.95 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨,LME 期锌涨 0.63%报 2786.00 美元/吨,LME 期铝涨 0.53%报 2577.00 美元/吨,LME 期铅涨 0.35%报 1980.50 美元/吨,LME 期铜 ...
美股三大指数涨跌不一 原油黄金双双走强
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 00:39
Market Overview - The S&P 500 index has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, reflecting investor sentiment shifting away from technology stocks towards sectors with relatively lower valuations [1] - The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw declines of 0.24% and a slight increase of 0.04%, respectively [1] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks experienced widespread declines, with Intel dropping approximately 7% and other companies like Google, Amazon, Apple, and Tesla falling over 1% [1] - Microsoft, Nvidia, Netflix, Meta, and AMD also saw minor decreases [1] Retail Sector - Mixed retail earnings reports are influencing market evaluations, with Target's stock falling 6.3% after announcing a CEO change and maintaining its previously lowered annual guidance [1] - Estee Lauder's shares dropped 3.7% due to tariff-related challenges impacting its annual profit outlook [1] Construction and Materials - James Hardie Industries, a building materials supplier, saw its stock plummet over 34% after warning about ongoing challenges in the North American renovation and new construction markets [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.33%, with notable movements in popular Chinese stocks such as NetEase, which increased by 1.7%, while JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo saw minor declines [2] Commodities - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased by $0.86, or 1.38%, closing at $63.21 per barrel [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.99%, reaching $3391.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.49%, closing at $37.89 per ounce [3]
特朗普怒喷鲍威尔 “灾难”,这场美联储内斗藏着多少狠招?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 03:59
Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with Trump criticizing Powell for maintaining high interest rates, which he claims is damaging the U.S. housing industry [2][3][4] - Trump's urgent call for interest rate cuts is driven by the significant impact of high rates on the housing market, where mortgage rates have surged above 7%, leading to a 23% drop in new home sales [5][6] - The housing industry is crucial to the U.S. economy, accounting for nearly 15% of GDP, making it a key indicator of economic health [6][7] Group 2 - Powell's resistance to lowering interest rates is based on persistent core PCE inflation at 3.2% and a robust job market, which he believes could lead to a resurgence of inflation if rates are cut [9][10] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, as historical precedents show past chairpersons have been influenced by political figures, yet Powell is determined to maintain this independence despite Trump's pressure [10][12] - The ongoing standoff between Trump and Powell poses risks not only to the U.S. economy but also to the global economy, as changes in U.S. interest rates can have widespread implications for global capital flows and economic stability [20][22][24]
关税与高利率压制消费需求 家得宝(HD.US)Q2同店销售额不及预期
智通财经网· 2025-08-19 12:13
Core Insights - Home Depot reported Q2 financial results with non-GAAP EPS of $4.68, slightly below expectations by $0.01, while revenue reached $45.28 billion, reflecting a 4.8% year-over-year growth, meeting forecasts [1] - Key sales metrics showed underperformance, indicating a reduction in consumer spending on big-ticket items amid high interest rates and inflation uncertainty, with same-store sales growth at 1%, below the expected 1.4% [1][2] - The company noted a decline in same-store customer transactions by 0.4% year-over-year, while the average transaction amount increased by 1.4% [1] Financial Performance - Home Depot's total customer transactions decreased by 0.9% to 446.8 million, with the average transaction amount rising by 1.2% to $90.01 [1] - The company expects total sales to grow by 2.8% for the fiscal year, with same-store sales projected to increase by approximately 1% after excluding one-time factors [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly engaging in smaller projects, with 12 out of 16 sales departments reporting year-over-year sales growth [2] - The trend of postponing large projects persists due to high interest rates and economic instability, although customers are not canceling these projects [2][3] Pricing Strategy - Home Depot has maintained its pricing levels as most imported goods arrived before new tariffs were implemented, although price increases are anticipated later in the year [2][3] - The company is studying customer sensitivity to price increases and expanding procurement channels [3] Market Positioning - Home Depot is focusing on professional contractors, with a significant portion of sales coming from this segment, which typically spends more than DIY customers [4][6] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion and plans to acquire GMS for approximately $4.3 billion, enhancing its professional product distribution [6] Competitive Landscape - Home Depot's competitors, such as Floor & Decor, have noted minimal impact from recent price adjustments but anticipate further measures later in the year [3] - The company has not altered its pricing strategy despite changes in U.S. tariff policies, with a customer base that generally has better financial stability than the average consumer [7]
【招银研究|固收产品月报】债市扰动仍在,固收+优势凸显(2025年8月)
招商银行研究· 2025-08-19 10:08
作者:招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 2025 年以来 | | | 固收产品收益 | 含权债基>高等级同业存单指基>现金 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金> | | | 回顾 | 管理>短债基金>中长期借審 现金管理 > 中长期债基 近一个月,供给端"反内卷"和需求 | | | | 1 月偏强震荡,2 月-3 月中旬债市大幅回 端基建、民生政策落地,基本面修复 调,4月初债市快速走强后回归震荡,5月下 | | | 债市回顾 | 预期强化,市场风险偏好抬升,资金 | 旬小幅回调,6月回归震荡,7月以来有所回 | | | 面维持相对宽松。长债弱于短债,信 | | | | 用债弱于利率债。 | 调。 | | | | 1.财政部、税务总局明确自8月8日起,对新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券 | | 行业事件跟踪 | 利息收入恢复征收增值税。 | | | | | 2.近期多家头部保险公司宣布下调产品预定利率,将于 8 月 31 日前完成产品切换。 | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个 ...
美国经济:零售保持韧性
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-08-18 02:05
Retail Performance - In July, U.S. retail and food service sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly below the market expectation of 0.6%[5] - The average monthly growth rate of retail sales rose from 0% in January-May to 0.7% in June-July, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[2] - Automotive sales rebounded, with a month-on-month growth rate increasing from 1.4% in June to 1.6% in July after a cumulative decline of 4.6% in the first five months of 2023[5] Industrial Output - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month in July, primarily due to declines in mining and utilities, which dropped to -0.4% and -0.2% respectively[5] - Manufacturing output remained flat at 0% month-on-month, with significant increases in medical equipment (2.6%) and semiconductors (2.9%), while apparel and automotive sectors saw declines[5] Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is expected to defend the independence of the central bank and reduce market expectations for significant interest rate cuts[2] - With inflation expected to rebound and unemployment rates remaining low, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[2]
债券收益受何影响?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-17 10:40
Core Insights - Bonds are influenced by various factors, including interest rates, credit risk, bond duration, inflation expectations, and tax policies [1][2] Interest Rates - Market interest rates have an inverse relationship with bond prices; when rates rise, existing bonds with lower rates decrease in value, potentially leading to capital losses for investors [1] - Conversely, when market rates fall, existing bonds increase in value, allowing investors to realize capital gains [1] Credit Risk - The creditworthiness of bond issuers significantly impacts bond yields; higher-rated issuers typically offer lower yields due to lower default risk, while lower-rated issuers must provide higher yields to compensate for increased risk [1][2] - Default by an issuer can result in loss of both interest income and principal for investors [1] Bond Duration - Longer-duration bonds generally carry higher risks and uncertainties, necessitating higher yields to attract investors, known as the term premium [2] - Long-term bonds face more risks from interest rate fluctuations and inflation compared to short-term bonds [2] Inflation Expectations - Rising inflation expectations lead investors to demand higher yields to offset the loss of purchasing power, which can pressure bond prices and reduce actual yields [2] - Conversely, lower inflation expectations can alleviate downward pressure on bond prices, potentially increasing yields [2] Tax Policies - Different types of bonds may have varying tax treatments, with some offering tax-exempt interest income, making them more attractive despite lower nominal rates [2] - The tax-adjusted yield can influence investor choices and overall returns on bonds [2]
第一创业晨会纪要-20250815
Macro Economic Group - The July PPI in the US increased by 3.3% year-on-year, the highest since February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the highest since June 2022 [4] - Core PPI rose by 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9% [4] - The unexpected strength in PPI data may lead to a market reassessment of inflation and interest rates, with a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut expected in September [4][5] Industry Comprehensive Group - Taicheng Technology reported a revenue of 828 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.49%, and a net profit of 173 million yuan, up 118.02% [7] - The increase in performance is attributed to self-developed key components replacing external purchases and changes in sales structure, leading to a rise in gross margin [7] - The AI server revenue of Hon Hai Precision Industry reached 1.79 trillion NTD in Q2, a year-on-year increase of over 60%, with expectations for continued growth in the AI market [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The energy storage industry is experiencing a surge in demand, with many companies reporting improved performance due to accelerated project implementation and positive market signals [9] - 152 energy storage companies are advocating against internal competition, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the industry [9] - The sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 16,200 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 185%, with a cumulative sales of 82,200 units from January to July, reflecting strong market confidence [10][11] Consumer Group - Jinlongyu reported a revenue of 115.68 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.67%, with a net profit of 1.756 billion yuan, up 60.07% [15] - Tencent Music achieved a revenue of 15.798 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%, with a net profit of 6.7 billion yuan, up 115.85% [16]