GLOBAL HEAD BANK OF BANKING AT UBS AND COHEAD OF THE BUSINESS IN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND. I WANT TO PICK UP ON A POINT THAT AVERILL WAS MAKING ABOUT GOOD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE NUMBERS WE'VE HAD, HIGHEST IN NOVEMBER. IT GOES TO WHAT WE'VE HEARD FROM THREE OF THE BIG BANKS LAST WEEK.THEY ARE ALL SOUNDING UPBEAT ABOUT CREDIT QUALITY, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND THE CONSUMER SECTOR AS WELL. IS THAT THE WAY HE WOULD CHARACTERIZE THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY AT THE MOMENT. FROM AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE, YES.WE HAVE SEEN IF ...

Summary of US Consumer Pulse Survey: November 10, 2025 Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Consumer Market - **Survey**: Conducted by Morgan Stanley, Wave 70, involving ~2,000 consumers from October 30th to November 3rd, 2025 [2][25] Key Findings Consumer Confidence - **Economic Outlook**: - 33% of consumers expect the economy to improve in the next six months, down from 36% last month and 44% in January [6][8] - 49% expect the economy to worsen, up from 46% last month [6][8] - NET score for economic outlook is -16%, a decline from -10% last wave and +8% in January [6][8] - **Household Finances**: - 38% expect finances to improve, down from 40% last month [12][58] - 31% expect finances to worsen, up from 28% last month [12][58] - NET score for household finances is +6%, down from +12% last month and +23% in January [12][58] Spending Intentions - **Short-term Spending Outlook**: - 31% of consumers plan to spend more next month, while 18% plan to spend less, resulting in a NET of +13%, down from +17% last month and +21% last year [6][13] - Lower-income consumers are more affected by the pause of SNAP benefits, contributing to the decline in spending intentions [6][13] - **Long-term Spending Outlook**: - Decline observed across categories, similar to levels seen in April [14][82] - Prioritization of essentials like groceries and household supplies continues [82] Inflation and Political Concerns - **Inflation**: - Remains the top concern for 57% of consumers, slightly down from 61% last year [7][30] - **Political Environment**: - 45% of consumers cite the political environment as a concern, up from 42% last month [7][30] - Concerns about the ability to repay debts (21%) and pay for rent/mortgage (23%) remain consistent with previous surveys [7][30] Holiday Spending Outlook - **Holiday Budgets**: - 38% plan to keep holiday budgets the same, 30% expect to spend more, and 23% expect to spend less, yielding a NET of +6%, down from +14% last year [86][90] - Higher prices are the main driver for spending changes, with 52% of consumers attributing reduced spending to inflation [91][92] Consumer Behavior Trends - **Spending Categories**: - Negative net spending intentions are observed in apparel (-18%), toys (-19%), and leisure/entertainment categories [15][83] - Food away from home remains a top category for spending cuts [51][83] - **Use of AI in Shopping**: - 45% of holiday shoppers are utilizing AI tools, with younger consumers showing higher engagement [108] Additional Insights - **Demographic Variations**: - Concerns about inflation and political issues vary by income level, with low-income consumers more worried about debts and high-income consumers focusing on investments [35][37] - **Tariff Concerns**: - 35% of consumers are very concerned about tariffs, with spending cautiousness increasing [40][45] This survey indicates a notable decline in consumer confidence and spending intentions, influenced by economic and political factors, with a cautious outlook for the upcoming holiday season.

Australia’s consumer confidence soared in November as households turned more positive on the economy, a result that’s likely to further reduce the chances of a near-term interest-rate cut https://t.co/3dgbyNGOEp ...

Economic Impact - Government shutdown is eroding American consumer confidence [1] - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hits its lowest point since mid-2022 [1]

Consumers' moods dropped further in November, according to a monthly survey from the University of Michigan, continuing a slide that has worsened amid persistent price increases and an extended government shutdown. ...

Core Insights - Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported a decline in Q3 results due to reduced prices and volumes, with net income falling to $142 million from $165 million year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net income also decreased to $172 million compared to $194 million a year earlier, and earnings per diluted share dropped to $0.48 from $0.55 [1][2] Financial Performance - Quarterly net sales decreased by 1% year-on-year to $2.19 billion from $2.22 billion, influenced by lower pricing and demand in the Americas, partially offset by moderate international growth and a favorable foreign exchange impact of $24 million [2] - EBITDA fell by 13% to $361 million from $417 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $383 million, down from $433 million in the prior-year quarter [2][3] - The adjusted EBITDA margin narrowed to 17.5% from 19.5% a year ago [3] Debt and Capital Expenditure - Total debt increased to $5.94 billion from $5.21 billion at the end of 2024 [3] - Capital expenditure was $267 million, compared to $313 million in the same quarter of 2024 [3] Shareholder Returns - In the first nine months of 2025, the company returned $248 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, including the repurchase of approximately 1.8 million shares for $39 million in Q3 [3] Year-to-Date Performance and Outlook - For the nine months ended September 30, net income totaled $373 million, down from $520 million a year earlier, with adjusted EBITDA at $1.08 billion compared to $1.28 billion a year ago [4] - The company expects full-year net sales between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.40 billion to $1.45 billion, and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.80 to $2.00 [4] - The outlook reflects year-to-date performance and efforts to align production with orders, with noted high volume and market uncertainty due to weakened consumer confidence [5] Future Production and Efficiency - The company anticipates reaching full production in 12 to 18 months, with the Waco facility expected to become the world's most efficient producer of recycled paperboard [6]

Core Insights - Marimekko's net sales and operating profit increased in the third quarter of 2025, with net sales reaching EUR 50.8 million, an 8% increase from EUR 47.2 million in the same period of 2024 [7][11] - The company expects net sales for 2025 to grow from EUR 182.6 million in 2024, with a comparable operating profit margin estimated at 16-19% [4][18] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, net sales increased by 8% to EUR 50.8 million, driven by a 15% rise in wholesale sales [11] - Operating profit for Q3 improved to EUR 12.5 million, a 13% increase from EUR 11.1 million in Q3 2024, with a comparable operating profit of EUR 12.7 million [6][12] - For the January-September period, net sales grew by 5% to EUR 134.8 million, with operating profit reaching EUR 23.1 million [7][12] Market Dynamics - The growth in net sales was particularly strong in Finland and internationally, with Finnish sales increasing by 7% and international sales by 8% [11][12] - The company noted that licensing income was significantly lower than the previous year, impacting overall net sales [7][12] Strategic Initiatives - Marimekko is focusing on expanding its international presence, particularly in Asia, with plans to open 10-15 new stores in 2025 [20][21] - The company launched a French-language online store and opened its first flagship store in Paris to enhance global brand awareness [17] Challenges and Outlook - The company faces uncertainties related to global economic conditions, including geopolitical tensions and consumer confidence, which may affect sales and profitability in 2025 [18][19] - Fixed costs are expected to rise in 2025, influenced by general cost inflation and increased marketing expenses [23]

Consumer Confidence & Economic Concerns - US consumer confidence is declining due to worries about the weakening labor market and rising cost of living [1]

Core Insights - Consumer confidence decreased in October, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index falling to 94.6 from 95.6 in September, marking the lowest level since spring [1] - There is a notable divergence between current and future economic assessments, particularly across different income groups [1] Consumer Sentiment - The Present Situation Index increased by 1.8 points to 129.3, indicating a more positive appraisal of current business and labor conditions, while the Expectations Index dropped by 2.9 points to 71.5, remaining below the recession concern threshold for the eighth consecutive month [3] - Inflation expectations rose to 5.9% from 5.8% in September, with over half of consumers anticipating higher borrowing costs [4] Income Disparities - Lower-income households, particularly those earning below $75,000, showed sharper declines in confidence, contrasting with improved sentiment among those earning above $200,000 [6] - Labor Economy workers, earning $25 an hour or less, represent about one-third of the U.S. workforce and account for approximately $1.7 trillion in annual consumer spending [6] Economic Impact - A 1% wage change in the Labor Economy segment could impact GDP by about $17 billion, highlighting the sensitivity of consumer spending to wage fluctuations [7] - Confidence among lower-income groups deteriorates more rapidly with rising inflation expectations or stagnant wages [8] Demographic Variations - Economic pressures affect different demographic groups unevenly, with confidence improving among consumers aged 35 to 54, while declining for those younger than 35 and older than 55 [9] Holiday Spending Outlook - Early indicators suggest consumers plan to spend 3.9% less on gifts and 12% less on non-gift items during the holiday season, prioritizing promotions and value [12] - Despite optimism regarding current job and income conditions, persistent weakness in expectations indicates uncertainty as the holiday season approaches [12]

Let's get back to the broader markets and the outlook for the economy after consumer confidence this month did fall to the lowest level since April. Joining us this morning is Medlife Investment Management chief market strategist Drew Mattis. Been watching a lot of this stuff closely.Drew, good to see you again. >> Good to good to be here. So, Conference Board is is kind of instructive and it it does fit a little bit with the narrative being built at Amazon and GM and Paramount uh where headcount is either ...