Earnings season’s bar has been lowered, but that doesn’t mean it’s easier to clear. Analysts expect U.S. companies to post softer profit growth in Q3 — roughly half the pace of the spring surge — as margin magic gives way to cost math. Big Tech is still doing the heavy lifting, but for everyone else, “resilient consumer demand” has started to sound like a dare. After two quarters of double-digit gains, earnings growth for the S&P 500 is projected to slow to about 8.8% year-over-year , down from roughly 13 ...

In the latest CFO Briefing newsletter, a close look at two developing trends and how they may play out this earnings season https://t.co/cwRldKAStc ...

Core Viewpoint - Valuations are a significant concern as the market prepares for the upcoming earnings season, which will prominently feature reports from major banks [1] Group 1 - The market's fundamentals will be highlighted in the coming week with the start of earnings season [1]

Core Viewpoint - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 14, with expectations for sales of $23.74 billion and earnings of $2.77 per share, indicating a stable outlook for the company in the drug and biotech sector [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JNJ's earnings has remained unchanged at $10.86 per share for 2025, while the estimate for 2026 has slightly increased from $11.36 to $11.38 per share over the past 60 days [1][2] - JNJ's earnings surprise history shows an average surprise of 5.73% over the last four quarters, with a recent surprise of 4.14% [2][3] Sales Performance - Sales growth is anticipated from key products such as Darzalex, Tremfya, and Erleada, along with new drugs like Carvykti and Tecvayli [5][6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Darzalex sales is $3.63 billion, while Tremfya is estimated at $1.3 billion [6] - The Innovative Medicines segment is projected to face challenges due to biosimilar competition for Stelara, which is expected to decline significantly [8][9] MedTech Segment Insights - JNJ's MedTech business is expected to show improvement driven by newly acquired cardiovascular businesses and strong performance in Surgical Vision and wound closure [12][13] - However, the MedTech segment faces challenges in China due to the volume-based procurement (VBP) program, which is likely to continue impacting sales [13] Stock Performance and Valuation - JNJ's stock has outperformed the industry with a year-to-date increase of 32.2%, compared to a 7.8% increase in the industry [16] - The company's shares are currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 16.97, which is higher than the industry average of 15.88 [19] Business Model and Growth Outlook - JNJ's diversified business model focuses on Pharmaceuticals and MedTech following the separation of its Consumer Health segment [23] - The Innovative Medicine unit has shown a growth trend, with a 2.4% increase in sales in the first half of 2025, despite challenges [24] - JNJ is advancing its pipeline and has made acquisitions to strengthen its position in the neurological and psychiatric drug market [26] Future Expectations - JNJ considers 2025 a "catalyst year," expecting operational sales growth to accelerate in the second half of the year, driven by newly launched products [29]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has released its quarterly list of top 25 tactical trades for the earnings season, highlighting both upside and downside names, with Broadcom, Disney, Celsius, and Win as top picks, while MAS and Super Micro are identified as downside risks [1] - The list has outperformed the S&P 500 by 3% annually over the past 13 years, indicating a strong track record in identifying profitable trades [1] Company Highlights - Broadcom is noted for its potential upside, particularly due to its custom compute AI chips, with analyst Jim Schneider projecting earnings visibility above consensus for the next year [3] - Disney's direct-to-consumer business and parks are performing well, with expectations for near-term earnings beats and consensus increases over the next year [8] - Win Resorts is highlighted for its resurgence in volumes in Macau, driven by a loyalty program, and an upcoming UAE investor day is expected to attract attention [11] - City is identified as a top pick in the financial sector, with expectations for fee growth and business simplification to resonate positively with investors [12] Market Trends - The earnings day moves for S&P 500 stocks have shown the highest volatility since 2009, reflecting significant fundamental volatility in the market [4] - There is a notable increase in options activity, particularly in single stocks like Tesla, which accounts for 27% of all single stock options volumes, and zero-day options on the S&P now represent 63% of all index option volume [6][7] - The current market environment is characterized by high dispersion and volatility, influenced by themes such as AI and government policy, which are benefiting some companies while posing challenges for others [5]

Group 1 - The earnings season is set to begin next week, with the tech sector expected to report record results [1] - Recent deal activity in the data center sector is positively influencing the outlook for tech companies [1]

time. We have a trading day ahead. We've had some earnings and much to discuss live at the CBOE.Kevin Hanks with the prebell playbook. Good morning to you. Good morning, Nicole Pedalites.Yeah, it's Friday here at the SIBO and we're looking at futures that are modestly higher, but what's moving are those other parts of the market. You're you're seeing the dollar lower. Why.Well, the Japanese yen is 4/10en of a percent higher this morning. That's creating the lower dollar. Look at the yields now down below 4. ...

Market Overview - US stocks reached record highs, but concerns about the AI trade being a bubble are emerging [1][2][7] - The Dow is down approximately 140 points, with slight declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [2][4] - Bond yields are increasing, and the US dollar is strengthening despite the debasement trade [3][4] AI Trade Insights - Seport Research Partners suggests the AI trade is in the early stages of a bubble, driven by spending from six major companies: Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle [7][8] - OpenAI is noted for its lack of cash flow, raising concerns about its sustainability compared to other companies in the bubble [9][12] - Oracle's recent decision to take on debt to fuel growth is seen as a sign of bubble acceleration, which can amplify both gains and losses [11] - The aggressive deal-making by OpenAI is prompting other companies to spend heavily to keep up, potentially prolonging the bubble [14][15] Airline Industry Developments - Delta Airlines reported strong third-quarter results, with revenue up 15.2% year-over-year, driven by premium and business segments [39][40] - The CEO expressed confidence in business travel recovery, with 90% of business customers expecting to travel the same or more next year [40] - Concerns about the impact of the government shutdown on air travel persist, with potential disruptions if the shutdown continues [44][49] Consumer Sector Analysis - PepsiCo narrowly topped earnings estimates, but faces challenges in its snack business due to price sensitivity among middle and lower-income consumers [95][97] - The company is expected to make price adjustments or increase promotions to address volume challenges [99][104] - The snack sector is seeing a shift towards private label products as consumers seek better value [109] Technology Sector Updates - Ferrari shares dropped significantly after issuing a cautious forecast and scaling back electrification ambitions [60][61] - Tesla is under federal safety probe regarding its full self-driving system, affecting approximately 2.9 million vehicles [62] - Serve Robotics is expanding its delivery partnership with DoorDash, moving beyond its previous collaboration with Uber Eats [63]

Core Insights - The article provides a market analysis focusing on the S&P 500 and S&P 500 Futures, indicating current trends and potential investment opportunities [1] Group 1: S&P 500 Analysis - The S&P 500 index has shown significant fluctuations, reflecting broader market sentiments and economic indicators [1] - Recent performance metrics suggest a potential upward trend, driven by strong earnings reports from key sectors [1] Group 2: S&P 500 Futures - S&P 500 Futures indicate investor expectations for future market movements, with current data suggesting a bullish outlook [1] - The futures market is reacting to macroeconomic factors, including interest rate changes and inflation concerns, which could impact future performance [1]

Market Overview - Major averages have recently hit record highs, with the S&P 500 closing on over 30 records [1] - There has been a significant rally of 40% from the market's bottom, leading to cautious optimism among investors [2][5] Investment Strategy - The company has raised some cash in anticipation of potential volatility during the upcoming earnings season [3][5] - A cautious approach is being adopted, following Warren Buffett's principle of being fearful when others are greedy, especially in the current information vacuum [4][11] Earnings Outlook - Concerns are raised regarding the deceleration of earnings growth among major tech companies, with the MAG 7 expected to see earnings growth drop from 32% last year to below 15% this quarter [9][10] - Capital expenditures as a percentage of free cash flow among hyperscalers have increased to 60%, impacting earnings growth and stock buybacks [8] Stock Recommendations - Estee Lauder and Diageo are highlighted as attractive defensive stocks, with potential for significant returns over a 3 to 5-year period [12][18] - Diageo is recovering from COVID impacts, targeting $3 billion in free cash flow and experiencing growth in its non-alcoholic beverage segment [17] - Estee Lauder is returning to growth with a focus on online sales, increasing from 20% to 31% of its business, and targeting $1 to $1.1 billion in operating cash flow [19][20]