🚨JUST IN: Traders reduce bets on two Fed rate cuts this year.All eyes on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow for clues. https://t.co/qBYdSVRrwu ...

Group 1 - The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which measures implied volatility in the Treasury market, has reached its lowest level since early 2022, indicating a significant reduction in bond market volatility [1] - This decline in volatility occurs as the Federal Reserve prepares for upcoming monetary policy decisions, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macro drivers affecting various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies [1] - It highlights the role of empirical data in shaping investment narratives and the necessity for clear communication of financial information to diverse audiences [1]

Group 1 - The markets are anticipating Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a probability exceeding 90% for a quarter-point reduction in the upcoming meeting [1] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the FOMC is likely to resume its cutting cycle next month [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of macro drivers affecting various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies [1]

Market Performance - Small-cap stocks outperformed major U.S. stock market indices on August 12, with the Russell 2000 Index gaining nearly 3%, marking its largest one-day rally since May [1] - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also saw a jump of about 3% [1] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year over year in July, slightly below the forecast of 2.8%, while core inflation increased to 3.1% from June's 2.9% [3] - The softer inflation data has strengthened the case for potential Fed rate cuts in September, with futures markets pricing in a 94% chance of a quarter-point cut [3] Small Business Sentiment - Optimism among small business owners increased in July, with the small business optimism index climbing to 100.3, the highest level since February and above the 52-year average of 98 [5] - This rise in optimism may indicate a stabilizing business environment, positively impacting small-cap stocks and ETFs [5] ETF Performance - Invesco S&P SmallCap Industrials ETF (PSCI) rose 3.8%, focusing on 93 small-cap companies in industrial sectors [6] - Invesco S&P SmallCap Information Technology ETF (PSCT) increased by 3.7%, providing exposure to 69 small-cap tech companies [7] - Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF (XSVM) gained 3.6%, tracking 122 stocks with high value and momentum scores [8] - Invesco S&P SmallCap Quality ETF (XSHQ) also rose 3.6%, holding 121 stocks with high quality scores [9][10] - First Trust Small Cap Value AlphaDEX Fund (FYT) increased by 3.5%, tracking 262 stocks from the Nasdaq US 700 Small Cap Value Index [11] Sector Trends - Financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary stocks, which make up over half of the Russell 2000, are experiencing strong rebounds [13] - Regional banks are stabilizing as credit risks recede, while manufacturing and transportation sectors benefit from improved supply chains and infrastructure spending [13] M&A Activity - There is an uptick in dealmaking within healthcare, biotech, and tech services, with large-cap companies targeting small and mid-sized firms for growth [14] - This M&A momentum is attracting active managers and hedge funds, injecting fresh liquidity into the small-cap space [14] Valuation Trends - Large-cap valuations have become stretched after a prolonged rally, while small-caps remain relatively discounted, prompting institutional investors to rotate into under-owned segments like small-caps [12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current trends and developments in the financial sector, particularly focusing on investment opportunities and market dynamics [4]. Group 1 - The financial sector has seen significant changes in recent years, with a shift towards digitalization and technology-driven solutions [4]. - Companies are increasingly adopting innovative strategies to enhance their competitive edge and meet evolving consumer demands [4]. - The article highlights the importance of staying informed about market trends to identify potential investment opportunities [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of inflation on the market and investment strategies [1][2] - It highlights the role of J.P. Morgan in analyzing inflation trends and their implications for various asset classes [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding inflation dynamics for making informed investment decisions [1][2] Group 2 - The author, Ernest Hoffman, has extensive experience in market reporting and analysis, contributing to the credibility of the insights presented [3] - The article aims to provide a comprehensive overview of current inflation trends and their potential effects on the economy [1][2] - It serves as a resource for investors looking to navigate the complexities of inflation in their investment strategies [1][2]

Market & Trade Talk Outlook - TIAA Wealth Management manages $1.4 trillion in client assets [1] - Extending the deadline for China trade negotiations would be a positive market outcome [1] - A major deal from current China trade talks is not anticipated [2] - US trade policy uncertainty is decreasing, with European and Japanese deals setting a framework [2] - Trade truce between the US and China should hold due to economic interdependencies, despite occasional flare-ups [3] Tariff Impact & Economic Growth - Tariffs of approximately 15% are being applied to major trading partners like Europe and Japan [2] - Tariffs of 19% to 20% are being applied to other Asian countries, aimed at curbing Chinese transshipment [3] - Current tariff levels of 15% to 16% on $3.1 trillion in US imports equate to about $400 billion in taxes on businesses and consumers [5] - The economy is expected to slow down to a 1% to 1.5% growth rate due to tariffs [5] Potential Economic Offsets - The market is anticipating potential Fed rate cuts, looking past inflation and focusing on a cooling labor market [6] - Deregulation and potential rise in capital expenditures could lead to an uptick in growth next year [7] - Income tax relief to households and corporations may offset some tariff costs [7][8] - Re-industrialization and manufacturing starts in the US are rising, benefiting industrial companies [9] - Reshoring is taking place, which may not be fully factored into stock prices [10]

But the market's not where you are, right, Van. Welcome. Uh, hey, Kelly, how are you.First of all, thanks for having me on and thanks for letting me one be one of your last guests before you go on leave. Uh, best of luck to your family and I hope to see you again very soon. Thank you.No one better to kick things off and and no better topic uh really than talking about, you know, Fed rate cuts because what is it, July. So, they're not priced for July. Are they priced for September. Uh, they're priced for Yea ...

Market Trends - Bitcoin's bull case appears robust due to traders anticipating increased Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 [1] - Treasury yields indicate ongoing fiscal expansion [1] - Yield differentials suggest potential Japanese Yen (JPY) strength [1] Potential Risks - JPY strength could trigger market volatility [1]

According to WSJ, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has privately advised Donald Trump against removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, citing strong economic performance, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts later this year, and potential legal and political risks. Bessent also noted that Powell's term ends in May, allowing for a natural transition. Trump described Bessent as “reassuring.”https://t.co/zcyA2C9epR ...