When we see such a positive jobs report, 147,000 jobs and a lower unemployment level, what is this. What is driving this. Good morning.Thanks for having me. Look, you know, as you said a moment ago, you know, this report was better than 78 out of the 79 forecasts that came into into the Bloomberg consensus range, the Bloomberg forecast. And so what we see is an economy that continues to defy it, continues to defy expectations, continues to defy, you know, all the doom and gloom that's out there, whether it' ...

US Political & Economic Landscape - The US political system is perceived to be transforming, with concerns about slavish devotion to a leader and Washington potentially turning into Pyongyang [1] - There's a sense that the US is politically not the same country it was a few years ago, impacting the entire international system [1] - Public opinion is largely negative towards current legislation, even with deliberate obfuscation of its impact [25] - The US stock market may be detached from the economic reality, potentially driven by corporate profit expectations in a favorable regime [15] International Order & Global Economy - The traditional global order is being tested, with the US potentially abdicating its leadership role [1][3] - The world may be moving towards a "world order minus one," where the US is excluded due to its current political climate [3] - There's an opportunity for other countries, like China and the EU, to take on leading roles in trade, climate action, and global governance [5][6][7] - The US dollar has fallen about 10% since the start of the year, a phenomenon typically seen in emerging markets [17] Risks & Uncertainties - There are concerns about the stability of the US system, with potential for unfair elections and the creation of a massive secret police force [2] - The US is potentially setting itself up for a financial crisis due to deregulation, irresponsible fiscal policy, and pressure on the Federal Reserve [31][33] - There's a risk of runaway inflation if the Federal Reserve becomes too politicized and attempts to goose up the economy for political gain [34]

Poland will likely keep interest rates unchanged after policymakers turned cautious, citing loose fiscal policy and global price risks https://t.co/9JheNe3y6U ...

Fiscal Policy & Debt - The industry expresses concern about the rise of Modern Monetary Theory, which suggests debt doesn't need to be repaid if a country can print money, particularly with the US as the reserve currency [1] - The industry believes that mounting levels of debt and deficit spending are unsustainable [1] - The industry suggests the US government needs to be able to sustain itself, especially as the cost of interest for the Treasury is increasing [2] Bond Market & Risk - The industry anticipates significant issues among bond buyers due to accumulating debt and rising interest costs [2] - The industry observes that the term premium has increased, reflecting a sense of more risk associated with the US due to increased spending [2] - The industry advocates for fiscal conservatism to address these concerns [2]

Economic Outlook & Uncertainty - Trade negotiations are a relevant factor influencing the European economy, with predictions varying based on different outcomes [1] - High levels of uncertainty persist due to geopolitical risks and the unknown final outcome of trade negotiations [4][5] - The Euro area's growth rate is expected to be below 1% in 2025 and slightly above that in 2026, with risks tilted to the downside [9] - Investment is flat, and consumption is not recovering, indicating a weak economic situation [9][10] Monetary Policy - The ECB has reduced interest rates eight times, from 4% to 2%, and is in a good place to deal with the future [3] - Further interest rate cuts are unlikely to significantly improve the economy, and the focus should be on certainty in trade and fiscal policies [10][11] - The evolution of inflation is expected to be positive, with the possibility of undershooting the target being limited [6][7] - The ECB does not target any concrete level for the exchange rate but monitors its level and evolution, considering its impact on inflation [16] Inflation & Exchange Rate - The ECB is confident that inflation will reach 2%, with favorable factors including the exchange rate and the evolution of energy prices [17][18][19] - An exchange rate of 1.17 or even 1.20 is considered acceptable, but overshooting beyond that would be more complicated [14] Fiscal Policy & Market Risks - Increased defensive spending is supported, but fiscal sustainability is needed, as markets may not continue to overlook fiscal policy [21][22] - Concerns exist about a market event linked to perceived unsustainable fiscal policy, which could lead to higher yields and impact valuations [23][24]

Key takeaways from our recent client conversations around the world. June 30, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing | North America M Idea The Weekly Worldview: The Hardest Questions: From Beijing to Berlin M A good friend of mine likes to say that the main reason that he forecasts is to find out why he was wrong. Our view of a meaningful deceleration in the US and the global economy from tariffs and other policies has yet to play out. We find ourselves waiting. So, while we wait, we take stock of the ...

Joining us now is Evercore chairman emeritus and black rockck co-founder Ralph Schlaststein right here on set. It's great to have you. Welcome.It's great to be here. Let's start right there. Uh because what what an incredible second quarter we had.Uh tariff tantrum. Is it over. Is is the fear about peak tariffs behind us.Well, I I think you can never say it's completely behind us because I don't think we have a absolutely certain path as to where the president and his team are going to take the tariff discu ...

President Trump expecting to see his long-awaited reconciliation bill on his desk by this Friday. Joining us right now is Joe Leavia. He's counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant.Good morning to you. Morning, Andrew. We are getting closer.We have a what do they call it. A voterama taking place uh today. What do you think has to happen to I mean we've had a couple of different people even on the show this morning who said there's still some other reconciliation issues that really have to take place bef ...

It does seem as if there are some risk positive stories at the margin. Then you can look at the 899 news from the United States as an example of that. And even some of the weakness in the data at the United States has been fed through into the lower rates narrative.So I suppose from that perspective, the the push higher in stocks makes sense. Is that too much complacency, though, in your view. I'm struggling with this market at the moment.Every input would seem bullish at the margin. As you say, yields are ...

June 23, 2025 12:53 AM GMT India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook | Asia Pacific Policy Impetus to Bolster Growth Growth indicators exhibit a modest recovery led by domestic demand. Macro stability indicators have improved, increasing flexibility for policy makers. Uncertainty from external conditions continues to weigh on growth, even as India appears better placed on a relative basis. 1) Growth – uneven recovery: High-frequency data in May suggest a mixed trend across indicators, with ones such as G ...