picked up to 0.71% YoY in November from 0.25% in October, driven by persistent food price deflation and weak core inflation. Most economists said headline inflation appears to have bottomed out in October on account of lower food prices and one-time GST cut adjustment and expect it to inch up but will be below RBI’s 4% medium-term target. RBI has cut the repo rate by 125 bps since the easing cycle began in February stating that it is to support growth as inflation remained benign.WHY A PAUSE NOW? , on the ...

Welcome back. Our next guest issued a dissenting vote at last week's big Fed meeting, pushing for even steeper rate cuts. Joining us here at Post 9 in a CNBC exclusive is Federal Reserve Governor Steven Myron.Governor, it's great to have you back at Post 9. Welcome. >> Good day.Thanks for having me back. >> So, I know you just gave this big speech at Columbia about inflation. And before we dive into that, maybe you could just explain why you dissented for even sharper rate cuts when some of your colleagues ...

Economic Indicators - The December Empire manufacturing survey unexpectedly contracted by 22.6 points to -3.9, significantly weaker than the expected 10.0 [3] - The NAHB housing market index for December rose by 1 to an 8-month high of 39, aligning with expectations [3] - Eurozone industrial production for October increased by 0.8% month-over-month, marking the largest rise in 5 months and meeting expectations [6] Federal Reserve Policy - The dollar index is down by 0.24% due to the contraction in the Empire manufacturing survey, which is seen as a dovish factor for Federal Reserve policy [1] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran indicated that the current policy stance is unnecessarily restrictive for the economy, citing a benign inflation outlook and labor market concerns [3] - There is a 27% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming January meeting [4] Currency Movements - The euro (EUR/USD) is up by 0.23%, reaching a 2.5-month high, supported by dollar weakness and positive Eurozone industrial production data [5] - The yen (USD/JPY) is down by 0.60%, climbing to a 1-week high against the dollar due to stronger-than-expected Japanese economic indicators and expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [7] Market Sentiment - Concerns are growing that President Trump may appoint a dovish Fed Chair, which could negatively impact the dollar [2] - Markets are pricing in a 0% chance of a rate cut by the European Central Bank at the upcoming policy meeting, indicating a divergence in central bank policies between the Fed and the ECB [6]

Nigerian inflation eased more than anticipated in November, strengthening the case for policymakers to resume interest-rate cuts when they next meet in February https://t.co/SIZDNM0Sur ...

Let's focus on this busy roster of central banks data. What do you think has the power to surprise Paul. Where are we going to see some volatility being created.Yeah. Hi there. Well, so lots of potential volatility in the fixed rate space this week.It all spins around off of the Fed. Of course, the Fed cutting last week, but then sort of signaling that it might be going on hold for a little bit of time. So that gives the market a time to calibrate where other central banks are going relative to the Fed.The ...

Summary of Key Points from the December FOMC Meeting Industry Overview - The document primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and economic outlook, impacting the financial services and investment banking sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Rate Cut Announcement**: The Federal Reserve reduced the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5-3.75% with a focus on data dependency for future adjustments [6][9][10] 2. **Dissenting Opinions**: There were three dissents during the meeting; two members favored holding rates steady while one member advocated for a larger 50 basis point cut [6][20] 3. **Labor Market Concerns**: Chair Powell indicated that the labor market is showing signs of cooling, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points since June [26][30] 4. **Inflation Outlook**: The Fed noted a slight decrease in inflation pressures, particularly in services, while goods inflation remains influenced by tariffs [28][29] 5. **Future Rate Cuts**: The Fed is expected to consider further cuts in January and April, contingent on labor market stability and inflation trends [9][30][34] 6. **Economic Projections**: The Fed upgraded its growth projections for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a more optimistic outlook despite ongoing risks [35][37] 7. **Reserve Management Purchases**: The Fed will initiate purchases of Treasury bills at a pace of $40 billion per month to maintain ample reserves, which is distinct from quantitative easing [12][15][77] 8. **Market Reactions**: The announcement led to a positive response in agency mortgages and a rally in Treasury yields, indicating market confidence in the Fed's approach [58][97] Additional Important Content 1. **Data Dependency**: The Fed emphasized a return to a data-dependent approach for future rate adjustments, raising the bar for further cuts [16][24] 2. **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate is now viewed as being above the longer-run estimate, which could signal potential concerns for future economic stability [18][19] 3. **Balance of Risks**: The Fed sees risks to growth and inflation as more balanced than in previous assessments, indicating a shift in outlook among FOMC members [37][39] 4. **Trade Ideas**: Recommendations for investors include maintaining long positions in UST 5-year notes and entering buy contracts for FFJ6, reflecting expectations of future rate cuts [69][75] 5. **Housing Market Challenges**: Powell acknowledged ongoing challenges in the housing market, suggesting that a 25 basis point rate cut may not significantly impact housing demand due to low supply and existing low-rate mortgages [101]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500, has shown significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 16% and an overall gain of about 86% over the past five years [1][2] - The upcoming tax refund season in 2026 is projected to be the largest on record, potentially providing American households with refunds ranging from $1,000 to $2,000, totaling between $100 billion and $150 billion [3][4][5] - Investment strategies such as owning an S&P 500 index fund are recommended for individuals looking to benefit from the stock market's long-term growth [6][7] Investment Opportunities - Real estate is highlighted as a cornerstone of wealth-building, with properties providing consistent rental income and serving as a hedge against inflation [10][11] - Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived allow individuals to invest in rental properties with minimal capital, starting as low as $100, making real estate investment more accessible [12][13] - Commercial property investments through platforms like First National Realty Partners (FNRP) enable accredited investors to diversify their portfolios without the responsibilities of being a landlord [14][15] Financial Management Strategies - High-yield savings accounts (HYSAs) and certificates of deposit (CDs) are discussed as options for managing cash, particularly in a fluctuating interest-rate environment [16][18] - Raisin offers access to high-yield and no-penalty CDs, providing options for both fixed returns and flexibility in accessing funds [19][20]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - A Kansas City Fed president dissented due to inflation being too high and a largely imbalanced labor market [2] - The speaker has been saying for months that rates will be able to be a fair bit lower than they are today for 2026, but is uncomfortable front loading too many rate cuts and assuming that what we've seen in inflation be transitory [4] - The speaker wants evidence that tariffs coming off next year will cause inflation to fall, as the theory sounds like the argument of 2021's "transitory" inflation [13] - The speaker is one of the most optimistic people for one year from now about how far rates can go down, more than the median in 2026 [15] - The speaker wants to get evidence that inflation is going to be temporary, because there were some disturbing readings on services before the lights went out [17] - The speaker says that inflation has been above the target for four and a half years, and it's rising [20] Labor Market - Most measures of the job market have been pretty stable, and the chance that things in the job market would fall apart rapidly in the within 1 to 2 months before we would revisit this again, feel relatively low [5] - The unemployment rate is ticking up from 4% at the beginning of the year to 4040 basis points [10] - If the unemployment rate is for four and a half or under and stays there stably as long as it's coupled with some of these other rates, the vacancy rate, the hiring rate, the layoff rate, if those show stability [35] Fed Operations - The decision to come back into the market and purchase $40 billion of bills is a technical adjustment, not QE, intended to allow rate control, not to influence monetary policy [27] - The balance sheet is growing, but in an ample reserves regime, it's supposed to be a share of something, a share of bank deposits, a share of GDP [29]

Citigroup analysts said the Turkish central bank’s sizable interest-rate cut on Thursday begged for an explanation, warning the monetary authority had little room for policy missteps https://t.co/FlpBrNaczX ...

Core Insights - Inflation is expected to worsen before improving, with the Federal Reserve closely monitoring prices and tariffs before adjusting interest rates [1][8] - The Fed anticipates that tariff-driven inflation will influence its interest rate decisions, potentially leading to prolonged higher rates that could slow economic growth [3][8] Inflation Projections - The Federal Reserve projects the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to decrease to 2.4% by 2026, down from a previous forecast of 2.6% [4] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is also expected to decline slightly [4] Tariff Impact - The effects of President Trump's tariffs on inflation are just beginning to manifest, with goods inflation primarily occurring in sectors affected by these tariffs [2][5] - Powell indicated that inflation from goods is likely to peak in the first quarter, with a potential decrease in the latter half of the next year if no new tariffs are introduced [6][7] Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed is likely to maintain current interest rates for several months to assess the impact of inflation before making further cuts [9] - Fed officials project only one additional quarter-point rate cut next year, with market participants not expecting significant rate cuts before late April [10] Economic Data Dependency - Future interest rate decisions will heavily rely on upcoming economic data and may be influenced by potential leadership changes at the Fed [12]