Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are largely flat with S&P 500 up by 0.02%, Dow unchanged, Nasdaq down by 0.03%, and Russell 2000 down by 0.17% [3] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is commencing a two-day FOMC meeting, expected to result in a quarter-point rate cut to conclude 2025 [2] Earnings Reports - Notable earnings reports today include BHP Group, AutoZone, and Ferguson Enterprises, all with market capitalizations of at least $1 billion [3] Economic Data - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) data for September and October will be released, providing insights for policymakers ahead of interest rate decisions [4] - Additional economic indicators to be released include the NFIB Business Optimism Index for November, ADP Employment data, and Redbook data [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates will significantly impact consumer prices, the job market, and corporate America, with a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut predicted by CME FedWatch [1]. Economic Data and Labor Market - The Federal Open Market Committee's decision is complicated by a recent government shutdown that disrupted key economic data releases, leaving the Fed without a complete picture of the U.S. economy [2][3]. - Key job and price data are delayed, including the October consumer price index and unemployment rate, which will not be available before the December meeting [3][4]. - The delayed September jobs report indicated more job additions than expected, but the increase in unemployment suggests ongoing concerns about the labor market [5][6]. Federal Reserve's Strategy - Economists expect the Fed to cut rates again but may adopt a wait-and-see approach afterward to assess economic developments [7]. - Some Fed members advocate for larger and more consistent rate cuts, indicating potential shifts in monetary strategy in 2026 as leadership changes [8]. Impact on Consumers and Businesses - A third consecutive rate cut could lower costs for major purchases, such as mortgages and auto loans, while also making credit card payments cheaper [9][10]. - Sustained rate cuts could enhance the job market by facilitating business borrowing and investment, potentially leading to increased consumer spending [12].

Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced a decline of 0.98%, trading at $90,264.02, while Ethereum rose by 0.27% to $3,112.05 [2] - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 0.93% to $3.09 trillion [7] Trading Activity - Bitcoin's trading volume surged by 15% over the last 24 hours, with an intraday low of $89,644 reached [3] - Cryptocurrency liquidations totaled $200 million in the last 24 hours, with over $100 million in bearish short positions eliminated [5] - Bitcoin's open interest fell by 0.29% in the last 24 hours, with over 70% of Binance's top traders positioned long on BTC [6] Stock Performance - Shares of cryptocurrency-related companies such as Strategy Inc. and Coinbase Global Inc. closed up by 2.63% and 1.66%, respectively [4] Analyst Insights - Analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified $92,000 as a crucial level for Bitcoin, predicting potential corrections if the Federal Reserve adopts a hawkish stance [10] - Lacie Zhang from Bitget Wallet anticipates moderate downward pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting BTC to recover towards $95,000–$100,000 and ETH to retest $3,800 as market conditions stabilize [11]

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates are increasing significantly despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates later this week [1] Group 1 - The rise in mortgage rates is occurring in a context where the Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement interest rate cuts [1]

US stocks fell on Monday as Wall Street awaited the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year, while the deal drama between Netflix (NFLX) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) escalated to a new level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped 0.5%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) declined by 0.1%. The laggard start to the trading week comes on the heels of closing gains for stocks on Friday. Markets are on the lookout for risks to almost-total con ...

Tom Lee has had a front row seat to more than a fair share of stock market pops and drops. Lee, a veteran Wall Street analyst who has tracked the stock market since the 1990s, is the founder of Fundstrat, a respected equity research firm that advises money managers and high-net worth investors. His extensive stock market experience means he has navigated the internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, the Covid pandemic, and 2022's bear market. Those experiences taught him valuable investing insights abo ...

Group 1 - U.S. households' current financial situations deteriorated notably in November, while their outlook for the next year slightly worsened [1] - Job market expectations improved, with a decrease in the anticipated unemployment rate and a lower probability of job loss over the next year [1] - Households reduced the likelihood of voluntarily leaving their jobs [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to the 3.50%-3.75% range to support a weakening job market [2] - There is considerable opposition among policymakers regarding the rate cut due to persistent inflation pressures above the Fed's 2% target [3] Group 3 - Inflation expectations for the next year remained steady at 3.2%, with three- and five-year projections unchanged at 3% [4] - Home price expectations held steady at a 3% increase, while medical cost expectations surged by 10.1%, the highest since January 2014 [5] - Future earnings and income growth remained positive compared to the previous month [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - President Trump plans to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett as a likely candidate, raising questions about the Fed's independence [1] - The markets are anticipating a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range to 3.50%-3.75% following the upcoming FOMC meeting [3][6] - The October JOLTS job openings are expected to increase by 7,150, while the Q3 employment cost index is projected to rise by 0.9% [3] Group 2: Trade and Corporate Earnings - China's November exports increased by 5.9% year-over-year, surpassing expectations, while imports rose by only 1.9%, falling short of forecasts [2] - Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies rose by 14.6%, significantly exceeding expectations of 7.2%, with 83% of companies reporting better-than-expected results [7] Group 3: Stock Market Movements - M&A activity is driving stock prices higher, with Confluent's shares up over 27% following its acquisition by IBM for approximately $11 billion [4][14] - Carvana's stock increased by more than 7% after being announced as a replacement in the S&P 500 [4][14] - Chip stocks are performing well, with Micron Technology up over 4% and Broadcom up over 3%, contributing to overall market strength [12] Group 4: Interest Rates and Bond Markets - The 10-year T-note yield reached a two-week high of 4.16%, influenced by higher bond yields and upcoming Treasury auctions totaling $119 billion [8] - European government bond yields are also rising, with the 10-year German bund yield climbing to an 8.5-month high of 2.846% [9] Group 5: Cryptocurrency and Related Stocks - Stocks related to cryptocurrency are experiencing gains, with Bitcoin up over 3%, and companies like Coinbase and Marathon Digital Holdings seeing increases of more than 2% [13]

Core Inflation and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed little change in September, likely paving the way for an anticipated interest rate cut at the upcoming meeting [1][4] - Overall prices increased by 0.3% in September compared to August, matching the previous month's increase, while core prices rose by 0.2% [2][4] - Year-over-year, overall prices rose by 2.8%, a slight increase from 2.7% in August, while core prices also rose by 2.8%, down from 2.9% [3][4] Consumer Spending and Economic Signals - Consumer spending grew by 0.3% in September, a decrease from 0.5% in August, indicating that Americans are still willing to spend despite high prices and stagnant hiring [7] - Recent data shows a surge in spending during Black Friday and the following weekend, with online spending increasing by 7.7% compared to the previous year [8] - The economy is exhibiting mixed signals, with solid growth despite a rising unemployment rate of 4.4%, and job cuts being reported in certain sectors [9][10] Employment Trends - The ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in November, suggesting that companies are beginning to lay off workers, which could lead to reduced consumer spending [10] - The upcoming government jobs report for November is expected to show a small gain, according to FactSet [10]

Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% due to concerns over the jobs market and inflation [1] - The core PCE price index rose +0.2% month-over-month and +2.8% year-over-year in September, slightly below expectations [3] - U.S. personal spending increased by +0.3% month-over-month, while personal income grew by +0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations [3] - The German October Industrial Production rose +1.8% month-over-month, significantly above expectations of +0.2% [10] Market Performance - Wall Street's major equity averages ended positively, with Ulta Beauty surging over +12% after strong Q3 results and raised guidance [4] - Micron Technology and GlobalFoundries saw gains of over +4% and +3% respectively, while Warner Bros. Discovery climbed more than +6% following Netflix's acquisition announcement [4] - In pre-market trading, Tesla fell over -1% after a downgrade, while Confluent soared more than +28% amid acquisition talks [16] Corporate Earnings - Several prominent companies, including Broadcom, Oracle, and Adobe, are set to release quarterly results this week [7] - Carvana is expected to be added to the S&P 500 index on December 22nd, leading to an over +8% rise in pre-market trading [17] International Developments - China's November Trade Balance stood at $111.68 billion, exceeding expectations of $105 billion, with exports rising +5.9% year-over-year [12] - Japan's economy contracted more than initially estimated in Q3, with a revised annualized GDP of -2.3% quarter-over-quarter [14]