Core Viewpoint - Many investors are anticipating further interest rate cuts in December, with a 93% probability assigned to this outcome, while dividend stocks like Plains All American Pipeline LP, Hercules Capital, and TORM plc are highlighted as attractive options for building a high-yield portfolio without resorting to Treasuries [3][4][6]. Company Summaries Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) - Plains All American Pipeline is a midstream company that transports and processes crude oil and natural gas liquids, generating steady cash flow through fee-based contracts, independent of commodity prices [5][7]. - The stock has appreciated by 83.27% over the past five years, not accounting for its substantial dividend [7]. - The company benefits from increased pipeline usage driven by long-term energy demand growth and booming exports from North America to Europe, with a forward dividend yield of 8.74% [8]. Hercules Capital (HTGC) - Hercules Capital is a business development company focused on venture lending, known for high dividend yields due to its tax structure that mandates nearly all income distribution to shareholders [9]. - The company offers a forward dividend yield of 10.23% and has received a Baa2 investment-grade rating upgrade from Moody's [5]. TORM plc (TRMD) - TORM benefits from Europe's transition to North American and Middle Eastern energy sources, necessitating longer-distance tanker transport [5].

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair raises concerns about his ability to implement aggressive interest rate cuts desired by President Trump, as his influence within the committee may be limited [1][2][3]. Group 1: Appointment and Influence - Gregory Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income, expressed skepticism about Hassett's credibility within the Federal Reserve committee, questioning whether he can drive consensus for rate cuts [3]. - The bond market's reaction, indicated by rising Treasury yields, suggests a lack of confidence in Hassett's potential appointment and its implications for monetary policy [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The discussions around Hassett's candidacy have led bond traders and macro fund managers to assess the potential impact on global markets, highlighting the sensitivity of markets to changes in Fed leadership [4]. - Despite Hassett's coyness about his candidacy, market participants have begun to position themselves for a possible increase in the pace of rate cuts, reflecting a shift in sentiment following his emergence as a frontrunner [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (FLBR) has reached a 52-week high and has increased by 48.4% from its 52-week low price of $13.98 per share, raising questions about its potential for further gains [1] Group 1: Fund Overview - FLBR provides exposure to large and mid-cap stocks based in Brazil and charges an annual fee of 19 basis points [2] Group 2: Factors Behind the Rise - The rise of FLBR to a 52-week high is attributed to the strengthening of Brazil's currency (the Real) and record highs in the Brazilian stock market, driven by expectations of future interest rate cuts by Brazil's central bank and a favorable outlook due to a potentially weaker U.S. dollar [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - FLBR is expected to maintain its strong performance in the near term, indicated by a positive weighted alpha of 37.98, suggesting potential for further rally [4]

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.38% at a 5-week low. The dollar was undercut by today’s weak Nov ADP report, which was dovish for Fed policy.  The dollar recovered from its worst level today after the Nov ISM services index unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high. President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026.  Bloomberg reported last week that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the likely choice to succeed Powell. ...

Group 1 - Traders are increasing bets on lower interest rates following the anticipated announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair and the release of delayed economic data [1][2] - The demand for short-term curve structures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) indicates expectations for monetary policy easing after Jerome Powell's term ends in May [2][4] - The frontrunner for the new Fed chair position is Kevin Hassett, as indicated by President Trump, which has led to increased trading activity in futures markets [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming announcement of the new Fed chair is expected to create a "shadow Fed chair," potentially complicating the Fed's communication of monetary policy [4] - Delayed labor market data, set to be released on December 16, could influence market expectations for dovish monetary policy if it confirms signs of softening in the labor market [5][6] - Recent trading activity has shown a preference for positions that benefit from a curve steepening, particularly targeting short-dated futures [6] Group 3 - Wagers on a dovish policy shift have resulted in a decline in 10-year Treasury yields, which fell below 4% last week [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.08%, down from 4.11%, reflecting market reactions to expectations of rate cuts [7]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market faced significant turbulence in November 2025, influenced by elevated valuations, mixed economic signals, and changing expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2] - The pullback in AI-linked megacap stocks led to profit-taking, impacting broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average showing modest gains while the Nasdaq Composite declined [1] Economic Indicators - Heavy selling in equities occurred mid-November due to a breakdown in the "AI trade" and reduced odds for rate cuts following hawkish Fed remarks amid a government shutdown [2] - Sentiment improved during the Thanksgiving week as weakening labor market data and dovish economic indicators raised hopes for a potential Fed rate cut in December [2] Sector Performance - Rate-sensitive sectors, particularly Financial Services, emerged as top performers in November, benefiting from optimism around economic stability and expectations of rate cuts [3] - Five selected bank stocks outperformed the S&P 500 in November, driven by rising net interest income (NII), acquisitions, and regional expansions [7] Selected Bank Stocks - Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Regions Financial (RF), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) are highlighted as strong performers with market caps of $20 billion or more [5][7] - CFG reported $222.7 billion in assets and is on track to meet its 2025 targets for deposits, loans, and assets under management [9][10] - HBAN's recent acquisitions and expansion plans are expected to drive loan and deposit growth, with management projecting an 8% increase in loans and 5.5% in deposits for 2025 [17][18] - USB is focusing on expanding consumer and commercial deposits and enhancing fee-based revenue through payment innovations, with a market cap of $76.24 billion [22][21] - RF is advancing its growth strategy through acquisitions and is benefiting from rising loan pipelines, with a market cap of $22.32 billion [25][24] - FITB is expanding its geographic footprint and has announced a merger with Comerica, which will create the ninth-largest U.S. bank, with a market cap of $28.73 billion [30][31]

Core Insights - Major indices are attempting to rebound after a recent pullback, with optimism surrounding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a resurgence in tech stocks [3][5] Company Summaries Amazon - Wells Fargo raised its price target on Amazon to $295 per share, maintaining an overweight rating. The firm anticipates that sustained supply constraints in the cloud industry could lead to a doubling of AWS capacity by 2027, potentially adding $150 billion in annual revenue, which would significantly enhance revenue estimates for 2027 and 2028 [5][6] Eli Lilly - Bank of America reiterated a buy rating on Eli Lilly, increasing its price target from $950 to $1,286. The firm highlights Eli Lilly's leadership in the obesity and diabetes market with its GLP-1 franchise, Zepbound/Mounjaro, and expects the launch of a new oral obesity medication in early 2026 [7][8] Apple - Bernstein reiterated an outperform rating on Apple, noting strong iPhone sales. In October, Apple achieved a record single-month market share of 24.2%, with unit sales increasing by 30% month-over-month and 12% year-over-year, driven by robust sales in both China and the US [9]

Sometimes you have to take matters into your own hands. The government shutdown ended a while ago, but there's been at least one lingering effect: a lack of inflation data.The last CPI report was for September and released way back on October 24. November's inflation report — sorry October, we'll catch you next year — was scheduled to drop December 10, but got bumped to December 18. But who wants to wait another two-plus weeks?Business Insider took matters into its own hands, surveying readers about how p ...

Group 1 - US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by eight basis points to 4.09%, while shorter maturities rose by at least four basis points [3] - Merck & Co. announced an eight-part bond offering, contributing to a projected $40 billion in corporate bond supply for December, with approximately half expected this week [3] - The total corporate bond supply for the year through November reached $1.55 trillion, indicating robust market conditions [3] Group 2 - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week are high, despite concerns from some policymakers about persistent inflation above the 2% target [4] - Economists at Bank of America have resumed forecasting a Fed rate cut next week, influenced by recent employment data showing an increase in the unemployment rate to nearly 4.5% [4] - A private-sector gauge of US manufacturing unexpectedly declined, impacting the Treasury selloff and indicating potential economic weakness [5] Group 3 - Traders are assigning an 80% probability to the Fed lowering benchmark rates next week, influenced by President Trump's decision on the next central bank leader [7] - The market is reacting to the prospect of rate cuts, with US yields fluctuating around 4% after previously dropping below that level [6]

Core Viewpoint - RBC Capital Markets has set a new 12-month price target for the S&P 500 at 7,750, indicating confidence in US stocks and suggesting a potential rise of nearly 14% over the coming year [1][2]. Group 1: Price Target and Market Outlook - The new price target of 7,750 reflects a bullish sentiment among analysts, aligning with other optimistic forecasts such as Deutsche Bank's call for 8,000 by year-end 2026 [1][2]. - The expectation of a bull market continuation is supported by a growing consensus among analysts [2][7]. Group 2: Key Supporting Factors - A potential drop in interest rates is highlighted as a significant factor that could support stock prices, with historical data showing that modest Fed rate cuts lead to an average S&P 500 increase of 13.3% [3]. - Current market conditions indicate an 87% probability of a rate cut by the end of December, a significant increase from 30% two weeks prior, which could further bolster market confidence [4]. Group 3: Earnings Performance - S&P 500 companies reported a 13.4% profit growth in Q3, driven largely by Big Tech, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit gains and exceeding the 10-year average of 9.5% [5]. - Despite strong earnings, the growth is still below the five-year average of 14.9%, indicating room for improvement [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - A rotation from megacap growth stocks to value stocks is beginning, with expectations that this trend will continue as earnings improve outside the top-performing companies [6]. - The overall economic outlook remains nuanced, with expectations of limited pullbacks in the S&P 500 to the 5-10% range unless recession risks become significant [8].