Market Overview - Wall Street's three main equity benchmarks closed mixed, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dropping over -17% after disappointing Q1 revenue guidance, while Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged more than +13% following strong FQ2 results and an increased full-year revenue outlook [2] - The ADP National Employment report indicated that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by +22K in January, below the expected +46K, while the ISM services index remained unchanged at 53.8, exceeding expectations [6] - U.S. rate futures show an 88.0% probability of no rate change and a 12.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [8] Corporate Earnings - The fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is ongoing, with S&P 500 companies expected to report an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year [9] - Notable companies reporting earnings include Amazon.com (AMZN), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) [9] Economic Data - Investors are focused on upcoming U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, expected to be 212K, and JOLTs Job Openings figures anticipated at 7.200 million [10] - Germany's December Factory Orders rose +7.8% m/m, while France's Industrial Production fell -0.7% m/m, and Eurozone's Retail Sales decreased -0.5% m/m [14] International Markets - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.15% as investors await monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank [13] - Asian stock markets closed lower, with China's Shanghai Composite Index down -0.64% and Japan's Nikkei 225 down -0.88%, primarily due to weakness in technology stocks [15][17]

Market Overview - US stocks mostly fell as Wall Street assessed earnings and awaited Alphabet's results, with the S&P 500 down about 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite down over 1.5% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% as investors shifted from tech stocks to blue-chip names [1] AI Impact on Tech Stocks - Wall Street is struggling due to fears of AI disruption, leading to a sell-off in software stocks that affected global markets [2] - Major tech stocks like Nvidia fell over 3%, Google dropped nearly 2%, Amazon slid over 2%, and Tesla sank more than 3% [2] Earnings and Market Sentiment - Even better-than-expected earnings are insufficient to convince the market unless companies can demonstrate that AI will be beneficial [3] - Advanced Micro Devices saw its shares plummet due to a weak sales outlook, raising concerns about its competitiveness against Nvidia [3] Labor Market Insights - An ADP report indicated that employers added only 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below the expected 45,000 [4] - The delay in federal jobs data has made private data increasingly important, with the official jobs report rescheduled for next Wednesday [4] Commodity Movements - Gold gained amid US-Iran tensions but fell back below $5,000 an ounce after a significant slump [5] - Bitcoin losses accumulated, trading near $72,000 at one point [5] Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - Eli Lilly's stock surged after a positive 2026 profit forecast driven by high demand for weight-loss drugs [6] - In contrast, Novo Nordisk's shares tumbled after it forecasted a steep drop in sales, shocking investors [6]

Group 1 - The recent selloff in global software stocks was triggered by the launch of a new AI "agent" by Anthropic, which surprised investors and highlighted the market's increasing discrimination between AI winners and losers [3] - Walmart became the first retailer to surpass a market valuation of $1 trillion, with its shares rising nearly 26% over the past year, positioning it among tech giants [2] - Novo Nordisk's shares fell almost 20% after the company warned about its profit outlook for the year due to intense competition in the weight-loss drug market [5] Group 2 - Major Wall Street indexes experienced a decline of about 1%, with Nasdaq futures remaining negative, indicating a broader market concern [4] - The ISM manufacturing index showed a sharp increase, suggesting signs of accelerating economic activity, alongside brisk business loan growth reported by the Fed [5] - Upcoming reports include ISM's service sector data and ADP's private sector jobs report, which are anticipated to provide further insights into the economic landscape [6]

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.0% chance of no rate change and a 9.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Tuesday that last year’s rate cuts have helped bolster the labor market as policymakers now work to bring inflation back toward the central bank’s target. “I think of these cuts as having taken out some insurance to support the labor market as we work to complete the last mile to bring inflation back to target,” Barkin sa ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is showing resilience with major indexes rebounding from earlier declines, driven by sector strength and cautious optimism as investors navigate corporate news and economic events [1][14]. Major Index Performance and Midday Momentum - The S&P 500 has increased by 0.5%, breaking a three-day losing streak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 317 points (0.6%) and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed 0.6% [2]. - The market's recovery is broad-based, with specific strength in sectors such as computer storage, airlines, and cruise-ship operators, benefiting from easing crude oil prices [3]. Upcoming Market Events and Economic Outlook - A busy week ahead includes major technology earnings reports from companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Palantir, and AMD, which will be critical for market sentiment regarding the tech sector and AI investments [4]. - Key economic data, including the January employment report and the ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI, are anticipated, alongside a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which maintained its federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% [5]. Major Stock News and Corporate Developments - Oracle shares are up 2% after announcing plans to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 to expand its AI infrastructure capacity, driven by strong demand from major clients [6]. - Walt Disney's stock is down 6% despite beating fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, attributed to higher costs impacting net profit [7]. - Nvidia shares declined 1.1% following reports that its commitment to invest $100 billion in OpenAI was not a firm commitment [8]. - Microsoft shares are down 1%, while Snowflake initially traded lower but gained 1.5% after announcing a $200 million deal with OpenAI [9]. - Twist Bioscience shares rose 7% after raising its FY2026 revenue outlook, while GameStop surged 6% amid speculation regarding merger plans [10]. Commodity Market Dynamics - Crude oil prices fell nearly 5%, trading over $3 per barrel lower, due to easing geopolitical tensions following comments from President Trump regarding Iran [12]. - Precious metals experienced volatility, with gold briefly dropping below $4,500 per ounce before stabilizing, while silver saw significant swings [13].

Market Overview - The stock market closed mostly lower, with the Dow managing to finish slightly in the green, while the NASDAQ experienced its worst day in several months [1][2][3] - The S&P 500 ended with a minor loss of about 13 basis points, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index was also slightly down [3] Company Performance - Microsoft saw a significant drop, down approximately 10% at its lows, marking its worst performance in several months [4] - Tesla also declined by 3%, while Meta's stock rose by 10%, contributing to a strong performance in the communication services sector [4][5] - SanDisk reported a revenue of $3.03 billion, exceeding expectations of $2.68 billion, and its earnings per share came in at $620, significantly higher than the expected $344 [22][23] - SanDisk's stock has surged over 90% year-to-date, driven by high demand for memory products in the AI sector [24][25] Sector Analysis - The communication services sector reached a record high, while technology was the worst-performing sector, down 1.6%, primarily due to poor performance in software stocks [5][6] - The software industry faced widespread declines, with companies like SAP down 15% and Atlassian down 10% [6][7] - In the semiconductor space, companies like Lamb Research and KLA saw gains of about 3.5%, indicating a mixed performance within the sector [7] Geopolitical Impact on Oil - Crude oil prices rose to their highest levels since September, influenced by President Trump's threats of military action against Iran, which has led to a risk premium in the oil market [11][12] - Analysts noted that the market is not currently pricing in a full-scale conflict but is reacting to operational signals and geopolitical tensions [12][13] Housing Market Insights - US mortgage rates are holding steady at 6.1%, the lowest in three years, but housing affordability remains a challenge due to high home prices [44][45] - The "lock-in effect" is causing homeowners with low-rate mortgages to keep their homes off the market, contributing to tight inventory levels [48][50] - New home listings have increased, but they are still 20% below pre-pandemic levels, indicating a slow recovery in housing supply [50][56] Future Outlook - Analysts expect continued high demand for memory products, particularly in AI infrastructure, but caution against potential oversupply in the future as production ramps up [39][42] - The housing market may see improvements in inventory levels, but significant policy changes at the state and local levels are needed to address long-term supply issues [52][56]

Market Overview - Wall Street faced geopolitical risks and central bank drama, with the Department of Justice opening a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell [1] - The financial sector struggled after President Trump proposed a 10% cap on credit card rates for one year [1] - Despite challenges, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 achieved record closes, with Alphabet reaching a $4 trillion market cap [1] Chip Sector Highlights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported record quarterly results, sparking excitement in the chip sector [3] - Nvidia remained popular among options traders, while Micron Technology's stock surged after a director purchased $7.8 million in shares [3] - HP shares fell to a five-year low following a downgrade from Barclays, contrasting with the positive momentum in other tech stocks [3] Corporate Deals - Walmart's stock reached new highs due to a partnership with Alphabet [4] - Allegiant Travel announced the acquisition of Sun Country Airlines for $1.5 billion [4] - Netflix's stock declined after making an all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery [4] Upcoming Earnings and Economic Data - A holiday-shortened week is anticipated, with markets closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day [5] - Key economic data, including S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMIs, will be released [5] - Several companies, including 3M, Intel, Netflix, Procter & Gamble, and United Airlines, are set to announce quarterly earnings [5]

Market Overview - China's stock market rally has shown signs of cooling, with the CSI 300 Index closing down 0.6% and record turnover indicating potential overheating [1] - Turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached a record 3.65 trillion yuan ($523 billion), surpassing the previous day's figures [1] - Margin trades increased by 1.8% to 2.65 trillion yuan, marking the largest rise in three months [1] Sector Performance - The tech sector has been a significant driver of market gains, with the tech-focused Star 50 Index rising over 9% in January due to advancements in artificial intelligence and supportive policies from Beijing [2] - Initial public offerings from local chipmakers and AI firms have contributed to the positive sentiment in the tech sector [2] Market Sentiment and Indicators - The 14-day relative strength index for the Shanghai Composite Index reached 81, indicating it is the most overbought since August [3] - Concerns about irrational hype surrounding "rocket stocks" have emerged, dampening overall market sentiment [3] Investment Strategies - Measures to cool the market are being implemented, including risk warnings from listed companies, leading to outflows from exchange-traded funds tracking the CSI A500 Index [4] - Despite the recent market retreat, the CSI 300 is up 2.8% for the year, outperforming global stocks, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has gained over 6% [6] - Analysts suggest that current fundamentals, sentiment, and seasonal trends indicate limited downside risk and potential for upside, with February historically being a period of good returns [6]

Market Performance - Wall Street's major equity averages ended positively, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high [1] - Data storage companies saw significant gains, with Sandisk (SNDK) up over +12% and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) rising more than +6% [1] - Chip stocks advanced, led by Intel (INTC) which surged over +10% following supportive comments from President Trump [1] - Vistra (VST) and Oklo (OKLO) also experienced notable increases of over +10% and +7% respectively after securing power supply agreements with Meta Platforms [1] - Qualcomm (QCOM) faced a decline of over -2% after a downgrade by Mizuho [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported a nonfarm payroll increase of 50K in December, below the expected 66K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, better than the anticipated 4.5% [4] - Average hourly earnings rose by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.8% year-over-year, surpassing expectations [4] - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index improved to 54.0 in January, exceeding expectations of 53.5 [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted modest job growth and a low-hiring environment, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding unemployment and inflation risks [5] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described the current phase as "fine-tuning" rather than making large policy changes [5] - U.S. rate futures indicate a 94.3% probability of no rate change and a 5.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. consumer inflation report for December is anticipated to influence expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed [6] - Other significant data releases include U.S. retail sales for November and various indices related to manufacturing and job claims [6] Corporate Earnings - The fourth-quarter earnings season is set to begin, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) reporting this week [8] - Other notable companies scheduled to report include Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Delta Air Lines (DAL) [8] International Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index declined by -0.18% amid concerns over Fed independence and President Trump's proposed cap on credit card interest rates [10] - The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index improved to -1.8, better than the expected -5.1 [11] - China's Shanghai Composite Index reached a new 10-year high, driven by advancements in AI and expectations of policy support [12]

Group 1: China’s Economic Landscape - China is positioned as a leader in the next economy, particularly in sectors like robotics, shipbuilding, and AI, competing closely with the US [1][10] - The Chinese tech sector has rebounded after being oversold, with exports projected to grow by 5-6% over the next couple of years, contrary to previous negative expectations [5][6] - China has a trade surplus of approximately one trillion dollars, with a significant diversification of exports to other regions, including Asia and Europe [6][8] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investors can gain broad exposure to the Chinese market through ETFs, such as the Greater China Growth ETF, which includes a mix of tech giants and advanced manufacturing companies [2][3] - The ETF has shown a 20% increase this year and a 45% increase since its launch two years ago, indicating strong performance [3] - There is a growing trend of Chinese companies, like Xiaomi and Hikvision, expanding into emerging markets in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, providing investment opportunities [8][9] Group 3: Emerging Companies in AI and Technology - A new generation of Chinese companies in chip manufacturing and robotics is emerging, with some companies experiencing significant stock price increases since going public [12][13] - Companies like Black Sesame and Brennen are highlighted as promising investments in the tech sector, particularly in the context of the AI race between the US and China [12][13] - These underexposed Chinese tech firms are expected to perform well and can be accessed through ETFs, allowing investors to mitigate political and economic risks [13]