US equities slid Wednesday as traders brace for a widely anticipated quarter-point rate cut later in the session, along with projections from officials on the trajectory of monetary policy https://t.co/v02X0wAx86 ...

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Spotify.Getty Images Good morning! Here is the latest in trending:New contracts: The U.S. Navy has enlisted Palantir (PLTR) to help build nuclear submarines faster, but does the company have 'improper ties' to the Trump administration?Precious metals: Closing above $60/oz for the first time, silver's gains are now outshining gold. See the top silver stocks ranked by SA Quant ratings.Healthcar ...

THE FED. LET'S GET BACK TO THE FED. THE ONLY STORY WE NEED TO FOCUS ON TODAY.SKYLAR IS HERE. THE STORY HAS EVOLVED AND JOBS IS BETTER. THE LABOR MARKET DOESN'T LOOK AS CHALLENGING.IS THERE FOR MORE OF A CASE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY FOR THIS HAWKISH CUT THE MARKET IS LOOKING FOR. ON THE AGREGATE THE DATA HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD FOR A WHILE NOW. ACTUALLY WE GOT MORE OF A SHIFT EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND WE ARE GETTING HAWKISH PREPOSITIONING THIS WEEK AS WE START TO THINK ABOUT HIKES NEXT YEAR.GUY: HIKES FROM THE FED. ...

Core Viewpoint - The metal market is experiencing a moderate upward trend as investors position themselves ahead of key policy meetings, with expectations around monetary policy direction being the main driver of gold and silver volatility [3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a strong consensus among investors regarding an imminent moderate policy adjustment, with the probability of interest rate cuts elevated to a highly consistent range [4] - This near-certain expectation allows precious metals to react in advance of the actual announcement, while the market retains some observation space regarding the policy pace into 2025, particularly under a "gentle but cautious" communication backdrop [4] Group 2: Institutional Accumulation - Central banks worldwide are steadily increasing their gold reserves, providing deeper structural support to the market, alongside positive inflows into precious metal ETFs, reflecting stable demand for diversification and hedging [5] - This trend is closely linked to the long-term uncertainty of the global monetary environment, forming a substantial bottom support structure for gold prices [5] Group 3: Employment Data Resilience - Labor market indicators show "moderate fluctuations but overall stability," with job vacancies remaining high and layoffs not altering the fundamental resilience of the labor market [6] - This data structure offers policymakers ample flexibility, allowing for a gradual approach to easing without the need for aggressive or urgent policy changes [6] Group 4: Diverging Views on Future Momentum - Despite strong performance in precious metals, some analysts express caution regarding sustained momentum, suggesting that if the pace of easing slows next year, the market may reassess the short-term upside potential for precious metals [7] - The derivatives market has adjusted its forecasts for the number of rate cuts in the coming year, indicating a search for balance between inflation resilience and economic strength [7] Group 5: Structural Strength of Precious Metals - The rise in precious metals is driven by multiple structural factors: stable expectations for policy easing, long-term demand from official institutions, and the healthy performance of the labor market providing policy flexibility [8] - As long as policy communication does not significantly deviate from core market expectations, the overall trend for precious metals is likely to remain strong, with short-term fluctuations stemming from natural corrections of expectation differences [8]

Energy Sector - The European Union has approved a plan to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027, aiming to eliminate new contracts by January 2026 and terminate existing long-term agreements by January 2028, reducing reliance from 45% to about 12% [3] Pharmaceutical Sector - Pfizer has entered an exclusive global collaboration with YaoPharma for the development of YP05002, a GLP-1 receptor agonist for chronic weight management, involving an upfront payment of $150 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.935 billion [4] Economic Indicators - Italy's industrial production fell by 1.0% month-over-month in October, significantly below the estimated -0.2%, indicating a negative trend in the manufacturing sector [5] - The European Central Bank is seeing increased bets on a potential interest rate hike in 2026, with traders pricing in a 50% chance as inflation stabilizes near the 2% target [6][7] Legal and Regulatory Developments - The EU General Court dismissed Ryanair's challenge against the €2.55 billion restructuring aid for TAP Air Portugal, affirming the aid's compliance with EU regulations [9]

Global bond yields have risen to highs last seen in 2009 ahead of a key Federal Reserve policy meeting, signaling concerns that interest-rate cutting cycles from the US to Australia may be ending soon. Yields on a Bloomberg gauge of long-dated government bonds have returned to 16-year highs, with money market bets underscoring that sentiment. Traders are now pricing virtually no more rate cuts from the European Central Bank, while betting on an all-but-certain hike this month in Japan and two quarter-poin ...

The word “record” gets thrown around a lot these days, but at least in the ETF industry, it’s for good reason. Inflows have already surpassed $1.25 trillion so far this year and are on track to top $1.4 trillion by year’s end, already exceeding last year’s record of $1.1 trillion. The growth was driven primarily by active fixed-income products, according to two recent reports from State Street and Janus Henderson. The reports predict high active fixed-income inflows next year following uncertainty around ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve (Fed) must remain nonpartisan and focused on monetary policy, avoiding political influences and actions that could be perceived as favoring one party over another [1][3][9]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Conduct - The Fed's primary responsibility is to conduct monetary policy without engaging in political matters, as emphasized by past practices of former Chair Alan Greenspan [3][9]. - Recent actions by the Fed, such as interest rate cuts before elections, have raised concerns about perceived partisanship [1][9]. - The Fed's communication regarding non-monetary issues, like tariffs, has been criticized for straying from its core functions [1][4]. Group 2: Staffing and Research Focus - There is a need for the Fed to evaluate its staffing levels and ensure that research efforts are aligned with its core monetary policy functions [6][8]. - The effectiveness of the Fed's economic forecasting has been questioned, suggesting a potential need for new models and researchers to improve accuracy [15][14]. - The current number of economists at the Fed has been deemed excessive, indicating a need for downsizing to enhance focus and effectiveness [6][14]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The economy is experiencing a significant increase in aggregate supply, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, potentially allowing for further rate cuts [22][23]. - Industrial production and capital expenditures have shown a notable increase, with a reported 9.1% gain over the past year [25]. - Lower energy prices, particularly oil, have contributed to a decrease in grocery prices by 14% since March, indicating a broader deflationary trend [27][28]. Group 4: Impact of AI and Job Market - The introduction of AI is anticipated to enhance productivity without leading to massive job losses, as historical trends suggest that new technologies create new job opportunities [30][33]. - The current economic environment is characterized by growth, with expectations that AI will serve as a tool to improve worker efficiency rather than displace jobs [33][34].

固收-2026 流动性：总量时代的转折？20251209 摘要 中国金融正经历转型，政府债券发行规模超过新增信贷，2025 年政府 债券净融资预计达 14.5 万亿人民币，或超新增信贷，2026 年或将接近 16 万亿人民币，标志着社融结构重大变化，适度宽松政策重心转向支撑 社融，为新经济发展提供环境。 新经济依赖长期耐心资本，对货币政策提出新要求，传统降准降息刺激 信贷方式不再适用。当前"适度宽松"旨在通过政府杠杆稳定社融总量， 避免金融风险暴露，支持新旧动能转换，并非传统乘数效应放大杠杆。 银行体系资产负债结构变化显著，政府加杠杆成稳社融关键。剔除政府 影响，整体资产负债规模实际收缩。央行通过公开市场操作提供流动性， 填补资金缺口，未来信贷需求下降将降低政府加杠杆需求。 2025 年货币政策关键词为"择机"，降准降息需考虑全球宏观环境、 美联储政策及中国重大政策。同时强调"反内卷"，打击手工补息等不 合理竞争，维护正常收益率曲线，优化金融业务开展方式。 银行在经济转型中面临贷款对象选择挑战，需平衡市场原则与战略需求， 通过总量政策和结构性工具支持新兴动能企业和债务化解。扩大直接融 资比例是降低实体融资成本 ...

On this episode of Market Sense, we are talking about interest rates and whether this rate cutting cycle could continue in 2026. We also delve into the end of quantitative tightening and how it may impact the bond market. Plus, what's next for Fed and monetary policy as Chair Powell's term ends in May. 02:12 Latest market news 05:03 Market Resiliency 06:54 AI 09:42 Tariffs 12:58 International stocks 14:54 Weaker dollar 17:49 Federal Reserve & interest rates 19:38 Gold rush 21:03 Bitcoin boom or bust? 22:21 ...