VONNIE: IT IS 5:00 A. M. IN NEW YORK CITY.HERE IS WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW. A RARE DEAL AS THE U.S. TURNS TO AUSTRALIA FOR A SUPPLY OF RARE EARTH WITH A LANDMARK PACKED. THE TRADE UNDER PRESSURE AS JAPAN'S FIRST PRIME MINISTER.AND EARNINGS FROM GM, COCA-COLA, GIVE INSIGHT INTO CONSUMER AND CORPORATE HEALTH. WE FINISHED WITH THE INDICES UP MORE THAN 1% YESTERDAY. A LITTLE EXHAUSTION ONCE AGAIN TODAY.MAYBE WE ARE REPEATING OUR PATTERN. EITHER WAY WE ARE NOT POINTED THAT MUCH LOWER ON FUTURES. THE NASDAQ 100 IS U ...

Core Insights - The recent market dynamics have been labeled as the "debasement trade," driven by concerns over budget deficits, high inflation, and the declining dominance of the US dollar [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly purchasing hard assets like gold and silver, which are nearing record prices, as well as cryptocurrencies, viewing them as beneficiaries of a weakening dollar and persistent inflation [4][6]. - The selling side of the debasement trade includes currencies and government debt, with Japan experiencing a sell-off in the yen and sovereign bonds due to political changes [5][6]. - Central bank stimulus globally continues to support the debasement narrative, with low interest rates and money printing raising inflation concerns [6][7]. Group 2: Asset Performance - Gold and silver have seen significant returns, with both assets achieving over 60% returns year-to-date, driven by market volatility and supply shortages [14]. - Bitcoin has had a mixed performance, initially declining but later benefiting from its dual role as a risk asset and an inflation hedge [15]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The debasement trade, while not a perfect explanation for market movements, serves as a useful framework for understanding current market conditions [9]. - Investors are advised to monitor individual components of the debasement trade and adjust their strategies accordingly to capitalize on market dislocations [9]. - David Kelly from JPMorgan Asset Management suggests focusing on UK and European stocks as they may benefit from a declining dollar, viewing them as undervalued with strong dividends [20].

The multipronged upheaval of fortunes caused by inflation could wreck the middle class, which binds democracies together, and scramble the social contract https://t.co/W33azFgZuq ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next week and again in December, reflecting a shift in expectations among economists regarding monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Interest Rate Predictions - A Reuters poll indicates that 115 out of 117 economists predict a rate cut to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29, with two economists forecasting a 25 basis points cut in October and a 50 basis points cut in December [2][3]. - The likelihood of another cut in December is estimated at 71%, showing a consensus among economists [3]. Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve is balancing the risks of elevated inflation and a weakening labor market, with a recent rate cut being the first since December [2][4]. - A government shutdown has delayed key employment and inflation data, complicating the economic outlook [4]. Labor Market Insights - Current private-sector data suggest modest layoffs and hiring, indicating stability in the job market without significant changes [5]. - Economists are divided on whether the job slowdown is due to labor demand or supply issues, which affects monetary policy responses [5]. Inflation and Unemployment Forecasts - The unemployment rate is expected to average around 4.3% through 2027, remaining largely unchanged [6]. - Inflation is projected to average above the Fed's 2% target through 2027, with consumer inflation anticipated to rise to 3.1% from 2.9% in August [6]. Future Rate Speculations - Economists are divided on future interest rates, with predictions ranging from 2.25%-2.50% to 3.75%-4.00% by the end of next year, influenced by speculation on the next Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May [7].

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Insurers are bracing for another year of uncertainty, with inflation once again cited as one of the top macroeconomic risks, according to BlackRock's 14th annual Global Insurance Report. The report surveyed 463 senior investment professionals across 33 markets—representing $23 trillion in assets under management—shows a sector adapting with caution but also seizing opportunities in both public and private markets. Even as risk appetite remains low - just 12% of insure. ...

Core Insights - Falling oil prices may lead benchmark Treasury yields to levels not seen in over a year, potentially hitting 3.75% if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [1][2] - A significant drop in US West Texas Intermediate crude prices, attributed to a growing oil glut and fears of a global economic slowdown, is expected to reduce headline consumer inflation rates and enhance consumer purchasing power [3][4] - The current bond rally is occurring alongside a stock market rise, indicating a rare market alignment where traders anticipate a slowing economy that can control inflation without entering a recession [4][5] Oil Market Dynamics - Crude oil futures have decreased from $80 per barrel in January to below $58, contributing to a decline in 10-year Treasury yields [4] - The reduction in energy costs from falling oil prices is likely to further cool inflation, supporting the case for additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5] Treasury Market Implications - The bond market is experiencing a rally driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns surrounding regional banks in the US, with the 10-year yield recently recorded at 3.97%, marking an 18 basis points decline this month [3][4]

Core Insights - Money market accounts (MMAs) offer higher interest rates compared to traditional savings accounts, providing liquidity and flexibility for long-term savings [1][3] - The national average interest rate for MMAs is currently 0.59%, while the best rates exceed 4% APY, with some accounts offering rates above 5% APY [3][7][13] - Historical fluctuations in MMA rates are closely tied to changes in the Federal Reserve's target interest rate, with significant drops following the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [4][5][6] Interest Rate Trends - Following the 2008 financial crisis, MMA rates fell to between 0.10% and 0.50% due to the Fed's near-zero federal funds rate [5] - In 2022, the Fed initiated aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, resulting in historically high MMA rates, with many accounts offering rates of 4.00% or higher by late 2023 [7] - As of late 2024, MMA rates remain elevated but are beginning to decline following recent Fed rate cuts [8] Account Features and Considerations - When selecting an MMA, factors beyond interest rates should be considered, such as minimum balance requirements, fees, and withdrawal limits [9][10] - Some MMAs may require a minimum balance of $5,000 or more to earn the highest rates, and monthly maintenance fees can reduce interest earnings [10][16] - It is crucial to ensure that the chosen account is insured by the FDIC or NCUA, which protects deposits up to $250,000 per institution [11]

We've seen the ten year. Good morning. Seeing the technique push through, then through that 4% level, we're at 3.9%, 7% right now.Shutdowns can be good for treasuries. What are we expecting to see. What are you watching for next when it comes to Treasury markets.Yeah, absolutely. So what you've seen over the past few months is the rally in Treasuries has largely been because you've priced in more Fed easing. I think also it's very true that the US government bond market has returned as the safe haven of cho ...

Bitcoin Braces for First Inflation Test Since US Shutdown► https://t.co/GDvZPg9bi8 https://t.co/GDvZPg9bi8 ...

It is time for money power politics. And Donald Trump's messaging on tariffs is starting to get a little muddled. So, let's level set.In a Fox News interview, Trump claimed America will suffer quote for years if the Supreme Court strikes down his tariff policies. But the Wall Street Journal is now reporting that behind closed doors, his administration is slowly backing away from many, many, many of his signature tariffs, exempting dozens of products that simply cannot be produced here and offering carveouts ...