CEO and chief strategist Daniel D. Martino Booth. First, your initial thoughts because this is a lot.These are a lot of changes. >> There there are a ton of changes and I I'm starting to feel like we're like it's a schizophrenic Federal Open Market Committee. I mean, they're swinging from pendulum to pendulum.Hawks are being doves. Doves are being I mean, it's it's just >> Yeah. Goulby set this out.Goulsby is always a dove. >> Goulsby I mean, the Chicago Fed is always the most dovish fed person and he's doi ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point for the third time since September, bringing it to approximately 3.6%, the lowest in nearly three years [1] - The Fed's dual goals in setting the benchmark rate are to manage prices and encourage full employment, which also influences consumer borrowing rates [2] - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target while the job market has cooled, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [3] Impact on Savings and Loans - Falling interest rates will continue to reduce yields on savings accounts, affecting the attractiveness of certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts [3] - Major banks like Ally, American Express, and Synchrony have already reduced their savings account rates since the last Fed cut, with top rates for high-yield savings accounts around 4.35% to 4.6% [4] - The national average for traditional savings accounts is currently 0.61%, indicating a significant difference compared to high-yield options [5] Mortgage Market Outlook - The mortgage market has already priced in the recent rate cut, with current mortgage rates at their lowest levels in over a year [5] - Mortgage rates are influenced by bond market expectations regarding the economy and inflation, typically following the 10-year Treasury yield [6] - There is optimism that homebuyers may see mortgage rates drop below 6.00% in the next year, potentially encouraging refinancing and new home purchases [7]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Jerome Powell says "we will deliver 2% inflation.""It is really tariffs that is causing most of the inflation overshoot." https://t.co/qiE5FaGkYb ...

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today's meeting, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3 to 3 and 3/4%. In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation.There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation ...

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today's meeting, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3 to 3 and 3/4%. In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation.There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation ...

Economic Outlook - The forecast suggests an optimistic outlook for next year due to additional GDP growth, easing inflation, and a steady unemployment rate [1] - Outside forecasts also indicate a pickup in growth [2] - Consumer spending has been resilient, contributing to the growth [2][4] - AI spending on data centers and related areas has been supporting business investment [2][4] - Fiscal policy is expected to be supportive [4] Growth Expectations - The baseline expectation for next year is a pickup in growth from the current 1.7% [3] - The SCP median growth is 1.7% for this year and 2.3% for next year [3] - Adjusting for the shutdown, the growth would be 1.9% and 2.1% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [3]

And if I could follow up on the outlook there, it it it seems like with the additional GDP growth coupled with easing inflation and a fairly steady unemployment rate, this seems like a pretty optimistic outlook uh for next year. Um what's given rise to that. Is this an early bet on AI.Is there some sense of uh improve improving productivity out there. What's what's driving that. >> So a number of things are driving uh what's happening in the forecast.And I I would say if you if you look broadly at outside f ...

In support of our goals in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. As a separate matter, we also decided to initiate purchases of shorter term Treasury securities solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time, thus supporting effective control of our policy rate.Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid 2022, but remains somewhat ele ...

In support of our goals in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. As a separate matter, we also decided to initiate purchases of shorter term Treasury securities solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time, thus supporting effective control of our policy rate.Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid 2022, but remains somewhat ele ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower the policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point to support employment and inflation goals, while also initiating purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities to maintain an ample supply of reserves [2] Economic Activity - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with solid consumer spending and continued growth in business fixed investment [3] - The housing sector remains weak, and the temporary federal government shutdown has negatively impacted economic activity, though growth is expected to rebound next quarter [4] Labor Market - Despite delays in official employment data, evidence indicates low levels of layoffs and hiring, with perceptions of job availability declining [5] - The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.4%, with job gains slowing significantly, attributed to a decline in labor force growth due to lower immigration and participation [5][6] - The median projection for the unemployment rate is 4.5% at the end of this year, with a slight decrease expected thereafter [6] Inflation - Inflation has eased from mid-2022 highs but remains elevated, with total PCE prices rising 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September [7] - Core PCE prices also rose 2.8%, with inflation for goods increasing due to tariffs, while disinflation in services continues [8] - The median projection for total PCE inflation is 2.9% this year and 2.4% next year, with a long-term goal of 2% [9]