Joining me now is the Wall Street Journal's chief economics correspondent, Nick Timmeros. It's great to have you back. Nice to see you.>> Thanks for having me, Scott. >> Seems like Mr. . Griffin is aligned with many on on the Fed right now.Maybe you'll get one. But there seems to be caution expressed by many of the Fed speakers we've heard this week, including today Austin Goulby said, quote, "I'm just a little uneasy with too much frontloading until we're sure that inflation is is coming down." >> Yeah, th ...

Let's get more on that burst of positive economic news out this morning. Refllies inflation adjusted GDP for the second quarter came in at a healthy 3.8%. That was stronger than the 3.3% figure that was previously reported.And meanwhile, in a sign of strength for the labor market, initial jobless claims edged lower to 218,000 and July existing home sales, which just crossed ticked higher to just over 4 million. So, how does the US economy keep chugging along amid what seems like a drum beat of dire predicti ...

Front and center this hour, the state of the AI trade. Many of the biggest names down again today. Has it left this market vulnerable to a larger pullback.We will discuss that with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Josh Brown, Joe Cheranova, Bill Baroo, and Jim Leenthal. So, we've said stocks are down again, which they are across the board.Not by a large amount obviously, but nonetheless, uh the consistency of today's move uh is one that we're watching. Rates are an issue, and they re ...

Market Outlook - Piper Sandler expects improving EPS breadth to take over after three years of PE expansion [2] - The market has priced in very little macro risk, making further multiple expansion difficult, earnings will need to drive growth [3] - Stable to slightly lower interest rates over the last two and a half years provide tailwinds to the economy [5] - Globally, there have been approximately 95 rate cuts in the last several quarters [5] - Analyst estimates are starting to broaden out, and housing data is stabilizing to slightly improve [6] - Rising small cap and midcap earnings estimates are observed for the first time in three years [7] Economic Indicators - The current backdrop is considered a Goldilocks scenario, with a soft enough labor market to allow gradual rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] - Broadening of earnings estimates has been strong across mid, small, and large caps in the last two months [10] - Green shoots are appearing in housing data, with purchase applications and refi activity continuing to grind higher [10] - The Fed funds rate is 125 basis points lower and is expected to be another quarter point lower by year end [11]

Economic Overview - The US economy grew at a revised annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [2][9][12] - Jobless claims fell to 218,000, down from an expected 233,000, indicating a stronger labor market [11][12] Trade and Tariffs - The Trump administration is considering additional tariffs on imports, including robotics and medical devices, which could increase costs for consumers and manufacturers [3][6] - A recent tariff reduction from 25% to 15% on EU cars and parts is expected to ease concerns in the European car sector [23][24] Company News - Starbucks announced a billion-dollar restructuring plan, which includes cutting 900 jobs and closing unprofitable stores [3][31] - CoreWeave expanded its partnership with OpenAI, increasing the total contract value to approximately $22.4 billion for AI model training [32] - CarMax shares dropped 18% after reporting a surprise decline in comparable sales, attributed to consumers rushing to buy vehicles before tariffs were imposed [33] Market Trends - The tech sector is experiencing a pullback, with concerns about a potential tech bubble as major companies engage in multi-billion dollar deals [35][36] - Analysts suggest a barbell strategy for investment, balancing high-growth tech stocks with more defensive, lower-volatility stocks [41][44]

Economic Indicators - The US Q2 GDP was revised upward to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), exceeding expectations of no change at +3.3% [2] - Q2 personal consumption was also revised upward to +2.5%, stronger than the anticipated +1.7% [2] - The Q2 core PCE price index was unexpectedly revised upward to +2.6%, surpassing expectations of no change at +2.5% [2] Labor Market - Weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -14,000 to a 2-month low of 218,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected increase to 233,000 [3] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that the labor market remains largely in balance despite signs of cooling [4] Capital Spending - August core capital goods new orders (excluding defense and aircraft) rose by +0.6% month-over-month, stronger than expectations of no change [3] Federal Reserve Policy - Comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid suggest that the Fed may not need to lower interest rates soon, maintaining a "slightly restrictive" policy stance to combat high inflation [4] - Markets are pricing in an 84% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [4] Currency Market - The dollar index (DXY) increased by +0.43% to a 3-week high, driven by hawkish US economic reports and liquidity demand due to stock market weakness [1] - The EUR/USD pair decreased by -0.44% to a 2-week low, influenced by the dollar's strength and central bank divergence, with the ECB seen as nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may not need to lower interest rates again soon, as inflation remains high and the labor market is still balanced despite some cooling [1][2]. Interest Rate Decisions - The recent 25-basis point cut in the policy rate was viewed as a reasonable risk-management strategy, with the current policy stance considered only "slightly restrictive" [2]. - Fed officials are divided on the number of additional rate cuts needed this year, with projections indicating a median expectation of two more quarter-point cuts, while many anticipate one or no cuts [3]. Labor Market and Inflation - A cooling labor market could help reduce price pressures, but recent data suggests an increased risk of a more sustained or abrupt economic slowdown [3]. - The Kansas City Fed chief emphasizes a data-dependent approach for future policy adjustments, closely monitoring inflation and labor market data [4]. Central Bank Independence - The importance of the Federal Reserve's independence from political interests is highlighted, as it is crucial for effective monetary policy and sound supervision and regulation [5]. - Independent supervisors can focus on long-term financial stability and respond agilely to instability, fostering public trust in the banking system [5].

Core Insights - The recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to lower yields on bonds, prompting investors to seek alternative income sources [1][2] - Midstream Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) and corporations are highlighted as attractive options due to their higher yields compared to traditional fixed income benchmarks [1][3] Rate Cuts and Impact on Bonds - The Federal Reserve has reduced rates by 25 basis points and may consider further cuts, which could negatively affect income-focused investors, particularly those nearing retirement [2] Midstream MLPs and Yields - Midstream MLPs and C-Corps provide appealing income and diversification benefits, with the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index (AMZI) offering a 7.8% indicative yield as of September 23, compared to a ten-year average yield of 8.2% [3][4] - AMZI's yield surpasses the Bloomberg USAgg Index's yield of 4.3% and the Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index's yield of 6.6% [4] Diversification and Correlation - MLPs can enhance income portfolios while offering diversification, as evidenced by AMZI's low ten-year correlation of 0.1 with the Agg [4] - The Alerian Midstream Energy Select Index (AMEI) provides a 5.3% yield, with a ten-year average yield of 6.1%, consisting of approximately 75% U.S. and Canadian midstream corporations and 25% MLPs [4] Comparison with Other Income Investments - Both AMZI and AMEI yield more than other equity income investments, such as REITs at 4.0% and the S&P 500 Utilities Index at 2.8% [5] - MLPs or midstream investments typically represent a 3-5% allocation in an income portfolio, which can significantly enhance overall portfolio yields [5]

Economic Data Overview - Recent economic data has shown favorable trends, with GDP revised to 3.8% for the second quarter and personal consumption expenditures increasing from 1.6% to 2.5% [2] - Durable goods orders exceeded expectations, rising by 2.9% instead of the anticipated decline of 0.5%, while core capital goods also increased by 6% [2] Job Market Insights - Jobless claims have improved, dropping to 218,000, which is a positive trend compared to previous weeks where claims were above 260,000 [3] Government Spending and Economic Growth - Despite a decrease in government spending, real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased by 3.2%, and real gross output rose by 1.2% [4] - The economy is showing resilience and growth even as government involvement diminishes [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - There is a wide range of opinions among Federal Reserve speakers regarding the economy and interest rates, with some advocating for lower Fed funds rates [7][8] - Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have contributed to market volatility, suggesting that the market may be reacting to perceived high valuations [9] Market Reactions - The market's decline, despite strong economic data, may be attributed to profit-taking and reactions to Fed comments [9]

The path for interest rates looks like it's heading down, but that's far from a sure thing. ...