This post originally appeared in the Business Insider Today newsletter. You can sign up for Business Insider's daily newsletter here. Welcome back! Sora has at least one big fan: Mark Cuban. He gave users on the app permission to use his likeness. He spoke to BI about why he did it, and why it's good for business. In today's big story, earnings season is upon us, with big banks up first. But can earnings reports fill the gap left from the lack of data due to the government shutdown? What's on deck Ma ...

Earnings Season Focus - Earnings are the primary driver of markets, especially with stretched multiples and market froth [1] - The best earnings revisions are in the technology and financials sectors, a potentially symbiotic relationship [2] - Technology sector exhibits the best earnings growth globally, though a breather may be needed after a significant run [3] Investment Strategy - Investors should avoid day trading based on headlines and policy moves, focusing instead on earnings [5] - Political developments can cause whipsaws; earnings trends are a better indicator of relative performance [7] - The firm invests in companies, not countries, seeking the best earnings globally [11] Market Outlook - S&P 500 earnings are growing at approximately 10% to 11% year-over-year [11] - The US has the best earnings globally, making it a primary focus for global equity opportunities [12] - The earnings bar for the current quarter is manageable, with the market anticipating positive results [9][10]

Earnings Growth Expectations - The S&P 500 is expected to see around 8-9% year-over-year earnings growth for the quarter, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth [2] - Strength is particularly noted in the IT sector, with significant spending and earnings generation occurring there [2] Investor Sentiment - Despite high optimism among individual investors, concerns about tariffs and their potential impact on inflation remain prevalent [5][7] - Investors have experienced over 30 all-time highs this year, supported by lower interest rates and ongoing deregulation [6] AI and Market Bubbles - There are concerns among investors regarding potential bubbles in AI-related stocks and other high-risk assets, although they continue to hold these stocks in their portfolios [9][10] - Nvidia remains the most widely held stock among individual investors, with many expressing a reluctance to take profits due to fear of missing further gains [12][16] Economic Concerns - Investors perceive the economy as fragile and uncertain, with a growing sentiment that economic instability may eventually affect the stock market within the next 6 to 12 months [19][20] - While the stock market has performed well, there is a sense of caution among both individual investors and large fund managers regarding the sustainability of this performance [20]

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Earnings season’s bar has been lowered, but that doesn’t mean it’s easier to clear. Analysts expect U.S. companies to post softer profit growth in Q3 — roughly half the pace of the spring surge — as margin magic gives way to cost math. Big Tech is still doing the heavy lifting, but for everyone else, “resilient consumer demand” has started to sound like a dare. After two quarters of double-digit gains, earnings growth for the S&P 500 is projected to slow to about 8.8% year-over-year , down from roughly 13 ...

In the latest CFO Briefing newsletter, a close look at two developing trends and how they may play out this earnings season https://t.co/cwRldKAStc ...

Core Viewpoint - Valuations are a significant concern as the market prepares for the upcoming earnings season, which will prominently feature reports from major banks [1] Group 1 - The market's fundamentals will be highlighted in the coming week with the start of earnings season [1]

Core Viewpoint - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 14, with expectations for sales of $23.74 billion and earnings of $2.77 per share, indicating a stable outlook for the company in the drug and biotech sector [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JNJ's earnings has remained unchanged at $10.86 per share for 2025, while the estimate for 2026 has slightly increased from $11.36 to $11.38 per share over the past 60 days [1][2] - JNJ's earnings surprise history shows an average surprise of 5.73% over the last four quarters, with a recent surprise of 4.14% [2][3] Sales Performance - Sales growth is anticipated from key products such as Darzalex, Tremfya, and Erleada, along with new drugs like Carvykti and Tecvayli [5][6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Darzalex sales is $3.63 billion, while Tremfya is estimated at $1.3 billion [6] - The Innovative Medicines segment is projected to face challenges due to biosimilar competition for Stelara, which is expected to decline significantly [8][9] MedTech Segment Insights - JNJ's MedTech business is expected to show improvement driven by newly acquired cardiovascular businesses and strong performance in Surgical Vision and wound closure [12][13] - However, the MedTech segment faces challenges in China due to the volume-based procurement (VBP) program, which is likely to continue impacting sales [13] Stock Performance and Valuation - JNJ's stock has outperformed the industry with a year-to-date increase of 32.2%, compared to a 7.8% increase in the industry [16] - The company's shares are currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 16.97, which is higher than the industry average of 15.88 [19] Business Model and Growth Outlook - JNJ's diversified business model focuses on Pharmaceuticals and MedTech following the separation of its Consumer Health segment [23] - The Innovative Medicine unit has shown a growth trend, with a 2.4% increase in sales in the first half of 2025, despite challenges [24] - JNJ is advancing its pipeline and has made acquisitions to strengthen its position in the neurological and psychiatric drug market [26] Future Expectations - JNJ considers 2025 a "catalyst year," expecting operational sales growth to accelerate in the second half of the year, driven by newly launched products [29]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has released its quarterly list of top 25 tactical trades for the earnings season, highlighting both upside and downside names, with Broadcom, Disney, Celsius, and Win as top picks, while MAS and Super Micro are identified as downside risks [1] - The list has outperformed the S&P 500 by 3% annually over the past 13 years, indicating a strong track record in identifying profitable trades [1] Company Highlights - Broadcom is noted for its potential upside, particularly due to its custom compute AI chips, with analyst Jim Schneider projecting earnings visibility above consensus for the next year [3] - Disney's direct-to-consumer business and parks are performing well, with expectations for near-term earnings beats and consensus increases over the next year [8] - Win Resorts is highlighted for its resurgence in volumes in Macau, driven by a loyalty program, and an upcoming UAE investor day is expected to attract attention [11] - City is identified as a top pick in the financial sector, with expectations for fee growth and business simplification to resonate positively with investors [12] Market Trends - The earnings day moves for S&P 500 stocks have shown the highest volatility since 2009, reflecting significant fundamental volatility in the market [4] - There is a notable increase in options activity, particularly in single stocks like Tesla, which accounts for 27% of all single stock options volumes, and zero-day options on the S&P now represent 63% of all index option volume [6][7] - The current market environment is characterized by high dispersion and volatility, influenced by themes such as AI and government policy, which are benefiting some companies while posing challenges for others [5]