Core Insights - Fed Governor Chris Waller discussed the challenges of making policy decisions without complete economic data, emphasizing the importance of private sector data to gauge the labor market's health [3][4][5][6][10] Economic Data and Labor Market - Waller noted that while government data is delayed, private sector indicators suggest a weak labor market, with job growth potentially negative in recent months [6][7][14] - Anecdotal evidence from businesses indicates a lack of hiring plans, with many companies not backfilling positions or making new hires [8][14] - The labor market's weakness is a primary concern for policy decisions, as it does not align with GDP growth forecasts, which are close to 4% [20][21] Inflation and Tariffs - Waller expressed that tariff effects are one-time price increases and do not lead to persistent inflation, aligning with historical central bank views [12][13] - He highlighted a two-tier effect in the market where higher-income consumers are more likely to absorb tariff costs, while lower-income consumers are more price-sensitive [18][19] Policy Direction - Waller advocates for cautious rate cuts, suggesting that the Fed should adjust its approach based on incoming data regarding the labor market and GDP growth [20][22] - The market anticipates sequential rate cuts, but Waller emphasizes a measured approach to avoid potential policy missteps [22][23] Private Credit Market - Waller addressed concerns about the private credit market, indicating that it is less risky due to the significant equity positions involved, which provide a buffer against defaults [24][25] - He noted that while losses may occur, it is part of the capitalist system, and it is not the Fed's role to protect individual wealth [26]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 292.77 points, or 0.63%, indicating a cautious sentiment in the U.S. stock market [1] - Dow Futures also showed weakness, down 276.00 points, or 0.59% [1] - This decline follows a period of record-setting gains for indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [1] Economic Context - The market is influenced by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed important economic data [2] - Investors are anticipating the upcoming third-quarter earnings season, creating a "wait and see" environment [2] - The absence of new economic reports on inflation and employment has left investors looking for direction from corporate performance [2] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments did not provide new insights into monetary policy, although previous Fed minutes suggested potential rate cuts this year [2] Individual Stock Performance - Nvidia (NVDA) was a notable gainer, rising by 1.93% due to optimism around artificial intelligence demand [3] - Other gainers included Salesforce (CRM) up 1.83% and Merck (MRK) up 1.38% [3] - Boeing (BA) was the largest loser, falling by 3.48%, followed by 3M (MMM) down 2.57% and Honeywell (HON) down 2.42% [3] - Strong early earnings reports from Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo provided some positive momentum for individual stocks but did not prevent the overall market decline [3]

Crypto Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market experienced a decline on Thursday, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) falling over 1% to 4,163 points, despite the Federal Reserve's minutes indicating a bias towards more rate cuts [1] - The strength of the dollar index (DXY) is contributing to the decreased appeal of USD-denominated assets, including cryptocurrencies [1] U.S. Economic Context - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is causing traders to remain cautious, awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech for insights on future policy direction [2] - Recent jobs and inflation data are temporarily on hold, adding to the uncertainty in the market [2] Global News Impact - President Trump's announcement of a peace deal between Israel and Hamas has brought some optimism, with potential hostage releases expected by Monday, although oil prices have slightly increased above $62, indicating trader caution regarding the agreement's sustainability [3] Developments in the Crypto Sector - Helius, a digital asset treasury company for Solana (SOL), plans to acquire at least 5% of Solana's supply [4] - Coinbase has launched decentralized exchange (DEX) trading within its app for U.S. users, excluding New York [4] - Polymarket's founder hinted at a potential launch of their native token, POLY [4] Traditional Market Insights - Gold prices remain strong above $4,000, showing resilience against the dollar's rally [5] - S&P 500 futures are stable near record highs, while JP Morgan's CEO Jamie Dimon expressed significant concern about a potential major stock market drop in the coming months [5]

Market Performance - US stocks experienced a rally, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the gains, closing above 23,000 for the first time, up over 1% [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished just below the flatline [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The latest Federal Reserve minutes indicated potential for more rate cuts throughout the remainder of 2025, despite showing divisions within the central bank [2][3] - Participants in the meeting expressed varied opinions on the restrictiveness of current monetary policy and the future path of policy, with most agreeing on the appropriateness of further easing [3] Gold Market - Gold futures continued their record-breaking rally, surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time, as investors sought the asset as a "debasement trade" alternative to the dollar [2] Economic Uncertainty - The ongoing federal shutdown has created uncertainty in the markets, impacting AI spending and raising concerns about a potential dot-com-style bubble [4] - The shutdown has deprived Wall Street and the Federal Reserve of crucial economic data necessary for informed decision-making [4]

The Federal Reserve’s September 16–17, 2025 FOMC minutes indicated that real GDP growth slowed and the labor market softened in H1, while core PCE inflation remained elevated. Most participants considered modest policy easing appropriate and expected further rate cuts this year. Many noted persistent upside inflation risks alongside growing downside risks to employment. https://t.co/Ga8FsHGeWD ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are projected to exceed $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026 due to Federal Reserve easing and ongoing demand from central banks and private funds [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold has reached a record high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by de-dollarization discussions and China's bullion custody plans [2] - Investor sentiment is influenced by fears of missing out and expectations of U.S. government shutdown leading to rate cuts, prompting increased gold investments [2] Group 2: Market Risks - The gold market appears overbought, with potential for a sharp near-term pullback if there are doubts about the pace of Federal Reserve easing or an increase in market volatility [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings season is expected to show a 4% beat, primarily driven by AI semiconductor companies, despite concerns about high expectations and potential tariff impacts [2][3][4]. Earnings Forecast - Earnings are projected to exceed expectations, with a forecasted growth of 11% for this year and next, followed by 12% growth in 2027, indicating a strong performance without significant multiple expansion [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The current market environment is characterized by a high earnings multiple of approximately 23 times next year's numbers, suggesting that future growth will rely more on earnings rather than multiple expansion [6][8]. - The Federal Reserve's actions are seen as less impactful than the AI trade, with the market currently pricing in two rate cuts this year and two next year [8][10]. Macro Factors - The macroeconomic backdrop is improving, with profit cycles in an uptrend, easing rates, neutral sentiment, and a negative but improving growth minus inflation metric [8][9]. - The manufacturing PMI needs to rise above 50 for sustained growth, which is contingent on lower interest rates and improved housing conditions [11][12]. Target Projections - The target for the S&P 500 is set at 7200 by the end of next year, reflecting a healthy outlook for equities based on the identified macro drivers [9].

Group 1 - Bitcoin has experienced a strong performance recently, reaching record highs alongside gold, indicating positive momentum in the cryptocurrency market [1] - The financial sector has seen a stellar quarter for M&A and IPO activity, suggesting that banks are likely to benefit from this trend [1] - Anticipated rate cuts are expected to support loan growth, further enhancing the financial industry's outlook [1] Group 2 - Mosaic is highlighted as a company to watch, with indications of a multi-month breakout in its performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for aggressive rate cuts due to significant economic changes, particularly influenced by the Trump administration, while suggesting that the divergence in views among Fed officials may not be as pronounced as perceived [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Miran emphasizes the need for a brisk adjustment in monetary policy, arguing that the current interest rate setting is not yet critical but could lead to problems if maintained for an extended period [2]. - He believes that the neutral interest rate has declined, making current Fed policy more restrictive and potentially hindering economic growth [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Context - The release of the latest employment sector report was delayed due to a government shutdown, but Miran remains unconcerned, noting that there is still time before the next Fed meeting [3]. - Miran, who is on leave from a position at the Trump White House, dissented in favor of a half percentage point rate cut during the last Federal Open Market meeting, where the federal funds rate target was reduced to between 4% and 4.25% [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Projections - Fed officials anticipate further rate cuts, projecting the interest rate target to be in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% by the end of the year, with expectations of a further reduction to between 3.25% and 3.5% by 2026 [5]. - Miran's aggressive stance on rate cuts contrasts with concerns from other policymakers, particularly regional Fed bank presidents, who are wary of lowering rates amid inflation exceeding the Fed's 2% target [5]. Group 4: Inflation Concerns - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted the Fed's challenging position due to rising services inflation, coupled with weakening payroll job creation [6].

Economic Outlook - The labor market is showing signs of softness, with the ADP employment report indicating job declines in three out of the last four months, suggesting a potential weakening trend [2][3] - Despite labor market concerns, the overall economy appears to be holding up well, with GDP revisions showing stronger than expected growth [8] Federal Reserve Policy - There is significant support among Federal Reserve officials for potential rate cuts, with more than half of the committee members anticipating two cuts by the end of the year [5][6] - The Fed funds futures market indicates nearly 100% likelihood of a rate cut later this month, reflecting market expectations [6] - The Fed is cautious about cutting rates too aggressively due to high inflation and the current economic growth, suggesting a measured approach to future rate decisions [14][15] Market Reactions - The market is pricing in almost two rate cuts this year and a future rate of less than 3%, which may be overly aggressive given the current economic conditions [12][13] - Some Fed officials have expressed caution regarding the inflation outlook, indicating a need for careful monitoring of economic indicators before making further cuts [10][14]