be at war. Everybody else, it's business as usual. And so I say all that to say to answer Andy's question, do you think the market will worsen amidst the months ahead.I think what will happen is that it'll be like every single thing else that we've ever seen. There's always a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the very beginning and then it will normalize and we will go back to making money. We will go back to the the business of commerce.the capitalism will emerge once again. ...

Economic Outlook & Uncertainty - The industry faces very high uncertainty regarding inflation levels and labor market softening [1][2] - Rate paths are data dependent, and various scenarios can justify different paths [1] - Rate cut paths reflect an expectation that cuts will become appropriate, considering the uncertainty [2] Monetary Policy - The industry is assessing numerous scenarios with different combinations of inflation and labor market conditions [1] - No one holds rate path predictions with strong conviction [1] - Rate path predictions are updated quarterly [1]

If you look at the um the rate path uh starting in December to today and adjust it over uh the full uh uh time horizon you've got there, you've taken about a quarter point per year out of your projected path and you end at a higher rate at N2027 than you were would have in the prior forecasts. Is that a result of of of a sense that tariffs will lead to more persistent inflation. Is it a result of reassessments of where your short-term neutral rate is it.Why why are you on a slower path now. So I would focus ...

Inflation & Tariffs - The market is underestimating the potential impact of oil prices, which could rival or even exceed the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [3][4] - Tariffs' inflationary impact is still anticipated, though not yet significantly observed [1][8] - The effects of tariff increases on prices are largely unseen to date [8] Oil Market - Geopolitical strife in the Middle East introduces significant uncertainty regarding future oil prices [3] - A rapid surge in oil prices, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel due to events like the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, could shock industrial economies [5] Monetary Policy - Current Federal Reserve policy is considered slightly tight, with a real interest rate a little high [6] - The Federal Reserve can afford to wait and observe the development of tariff and oil uncertainties [7] Housing Market - The housing sector, particularly new residential construction spending, constitutes approximately 4% of GDP and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve due to its interest rate sensitivity [9][10]

Core Concept: Schrodinger's Cat Thought Experiment - The thought experiment illustrates the principle of superposition, where a quantum system can exist in multiple states simultaneously, challenging classical physics [4][5] - It highlights the inherent uncertainty in systems until measured, questioning our understanding of knowledge and reality [7][8] - The experiment emphasizes the role of the observer in determining the state of a quantum system, where observation affects the system being observed [5] Implications for Uncertainty and Innovation - Embracing uncertainty fosters innovation and creativity by pushing exploration of new ideas and experimentation [12][13] - Navigating uncertainty enhances problem-solving skills and adaptability, improving critical thinking and flexible strategies [13] - Uncertainty promotes growth, resilience, and learning from failures, building the ability to bounce back from setbacks [14][15] - Uncertainty encourages diverse perspectives, stimulating collaboration and richer solutions, improving critical thinking and decision-making [16] - Uncertainty drives scientific and technological advancements by leading to new questions and research [17] Application to Everyday Life and Personal Growth - The concept of superposition applies to everyday paradoxes, such as experiencing conflicting emotions simultaneously [10][11] - Personal uncertainty, like career changes, can lead to self-development and discovery, guiding individuals towards more fulfilling careers [18][19] - Embracing uncertainty cultivates mindfulness, helping individuals focus on the present and reducing stress [20] Redefining Reality and the Power of Observation - The experiment challenges rigid categories and encourages rethinking how we define reality, acknowledging its complexity [23][24] - It highlights the power of observation, suggesting that our perspective and choices actively shape reality [24]

Lael Brainard, Former Federal Reserve vice chair, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the Israel-Iran conflict, the Fed's next moves and the economy. ...

Oil prices spiking following Israel's strike on Iran, adding an inflationary input ahead of the Fed's meeting next week. Meanwhile, we just got a positive signal from the data. An early read on Michigan consumer sentiment for June coming in well above expectations.Also, inflation expectations fell. Joining us is former Dallas Fed President and CNBC contributor Richard Fiser. So Richard, is is it your view that this is just going to make the Fed even more patient on its stance to do anything because it has t ...

Inflation data on the agenda today, this time at the producer level. May PPI is due in just over two hours time. For more insights on inflation in the economy ahead of the Fed's policy meeting next week, we want to bring in Ian Shepardson.He's chairman and editor and chief of Pantheon Macroeconomics. And Ian, the weaker than expected inflation numbers yesterday once again. Look, what what does this mean.that the tariffs are not going to be nearly as inflationary as people thought or there's a longer delay b ...

Who is afraid that AI is going to destroy human civilization. Now, don't be shy. It can't see you right now.Who knows someone who is afraid that AI is going to destroy human civilization. Who is afraid of dying. In a black box, AI and death share a room.What's inside this black box. We don't know. In a 2023 New York Times column, Ezra Klene wrote about AI.We do not understand these systems, and it's not clear we even can. I am an artist dealing in embodiment and livveness. As such, I have taken AI and death ...

Group 1 - The global capital market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices surpassing $3200 per ounce, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and instability in the digital currency system [1] - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold are showing signs of weakness, as evidenced by a nearly 2% drop in gold ETFs following positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, indicating vulnerability to policy shifts [1] - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves for 17 consecutive months reflects structural anxiety regarding the credibility of the US dollar system, suggesting that gold may only serve as a temporary solution in a shifting order [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin is emerging as a new safe-haven asset, demonstrating resilience during the US dollar depreciation cycle, attracting institutional funds due to its fixed supply and decentralized nature, despite its volatility [2] - Chinese core assets are gaining attention as safe-haven investments, with foreign capital increasingly allocating to undervalued sectors such as banking, power equipment, and biopharmaceuticals, particularly benefiting from high dividend yields in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The safe-haven logic of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc is evolving, with the yen's exchange rate becoming more correlated with the VIX index following the Bank of Japan's policy changes, while the Swiss franc remains a refuge for European capital due to its high gold reserve ratio [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's impending shift in monetary policy is expected to impact various commodities, with historical data indicating that industrial precious metals like copper and silver typically see average gains of 18% within three months of the first rate cut, outpacing gold's 7% [3] - The potential resolution of US-China trade agreements may create new investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as electric vehicles, cross-border payments, and biotechnology, which could replicate the explosive growth seen in the 2024 Hongmeng Zhixing industry chain [3] - There are hidden opportunities in "asymmetric risks," where investing in volatility index (VIX) derivatives could serve as insurance against unexpected market movements when the market collectively bets on interest rate cuts [3] Group 4 - As the allure of gold as a safe haven diminishes, capital is seeking more aggressive safety margins, requiring investors to build dynamic portfolios that hedge recession risks with US Treasuries, capture benefits from digital currency transitions, and share in the growth of core Asian assets [4] - Historical events such as the Great Depression and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system have shown that the disintegration of old orders often paves the way for the emergence of new investment opportunities and market leaders [4]