[Music] Welcome to Market Overtime. I'm Nicole Pedalites. The Federal Reserve has delivered its first rate cut of the year, a widely expected 25 basis points cut that had broad support.On this episode, we'll examine the FOMC announcement, Jerome Powell's commentary, and what this all means for your portfolio, as well as investigate AI. Of course, we've had so much momentum with AI, but when does it fizzle out. When do some of the details within AI and fundamentals really matter.And we bring in an expert for ...

🇺🇸 JUST IN: Markets price a 78.6% chance the Fed cuts rates to 3.50%–3.75% by the Dec. 10 meeting. https://t.co/sgU5yU5zXE ...

Market Trends & Consumer Behavior - The share of new cars costing more than $50,000 has almost doubled compared to six years ago, indicating a shift towards higher-priced vehicles [1] - The share of buyers with incomes over $150,000 made up 12% of all car purchases in 2025, significantly larger than other income groups [8] - There are more vehicles for sale above $100,000 than below $30,000 in the US market [9] - Consumer sentiment among high-income adults has shown recent decreases, potentially signaling a shift in the high-end market [27] Financial & Economic Factors - Dealer profits increased by 20% in Q2 2025, but economists are concerned about the reliance on a smaller share of consumers [2] - The average monthly loan payment was $749 in Q2 2025, almost $200 more than in 2019 [4] - Approximately 15% of monthly car payments, including leases and loans, exceed $1,000 [5] - Tariffs are adding up to $5,700 to the price of each imported vehicle, disproportionately impacting lower entry-level models [11] - Auto loan delinquencies have increased year over year since 2021 [23] Industry Dynamics & Challenges - Automakers prioritized higher-priced vehicles during the chip crisis to maximize profits [10] - Rising interest rates and a credit crunch are pricing many people out of the new vehicle market [17][18] - The regulatory environment and homologation requirements contribute to the high cost of vehicles [6] - Chinese manufacturers may offer a source for less expensive vehicles, despite US tariffs [30][31]

Joining us now for a look at the US economy and the Fed, Larry Lindseay, president, CEO of the Lindsey Group, former National Economic Council director. He's been mentioned as a possible uh Fed chair nominee. Uh it's been a while. Uh Larry, it's good to see you. >> Good to be here.>> You worry, and we'll just talk near-term about uh about the Fed. You worry that perhaps like uh 2024 that if you cut on the short end that might not be translated into lower rates on the long end might actually be uh actually c ...

Market Overview - Futures are slightly lower at the start of the trading day, but there are lingering bullish tones in the market [1][5] - The market has experienced a significant run recently, indicating potential fatigue in pre-market futures [5] Earnings and Economic Data - Key earnings reports are expected this week, including Micron after the bell tomorrow and Costco on Thursday [2] - Important economic data will be released, including PMIs, durable goods, GDP revisions, jobless claims, and personal income and outlays [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - A steady flow of Federal Reserve speakers is anticipated this week, discussing recent interest rate decisions and economic outlooks [4][10] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is currently around 91.9%, with market expectations heavily influenced by upcoming economic data [12][14] Inflation and Labor Market - The consensus for the year-over-year PCE inflation rate is expected to tick up slightly to between 2.6% and 2.7%, while the core PCE is projected to remain flat at around 2.9% [13] - Ongoing labor market data will be crucial for future discussions on interest rates, with more job-related data expected in early October [14] Gold and Risk Sentiment - Gold prices are rising, attributed to a risk-off sentiment in the market and a weaker dollar [6][7] - The VIX is higher, indicating increased market volatility, while yields on 10-year notes have drifted lower [8][9]

Bostic spoke about the outlook for the labor market, inflation and interest rates during an interview with Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos. ...

Investment Philosophy - Investing in exceptional businesses capable of consistently growing profits is key, regardless of interest rate fluctuations [1] Long-Term Perspective - The long-term success of investments hinges on owning businesses that can compound profits across various economic conditions [1]

Australia’s central bank Governor Michele Bullock said economic data have been inline or slightly stronger than expected since the August meeting, as economists predict the board will hold interest rates next week https://t.co/C6zqfrhQik ...

Impact on Savings and Deposits - Savings and checking account rates generally follow the federal funds rate, but changes may be modest due to the small rate cut [2][3] - The best savings account rates have hovered around 4% APY, and fewer accounts may offer rates that high going forward [3] - CD rates are also tied to the federal funds rate and are expected to decrease [4] - Locking savings into a CD can guarantee a higher rate through the term, which is beneficial if further rate cuts are expected [5] Impact on Loans and Credit - Personal loan rates, recently averaging around 12%, are expected to drop slightly, with the best rates available to those with good to excellent credit [6][7][8] - Credit card rates are closely tied to the prime rate, which is also linked to the federal funds rate [9] - Credit card rates, recently averaging around 21% to 22%, remain one of the most expensive borrowing options [10] Impact on Investments - Fed rate cuts are generally positive for the market because lower borrowing costs allow companies to spend more on operations and expansion, potentially increasing stock values [11][12] - Investment decisions should be based on a well-diversified portfolio, time horizon, and risk tolerance, rather than solely on Fed actions [13]

Wall Street is betting that interest rates are poised to come down faster than the Fed does—a wager that is already boosting the economy and markets by making it cheaper for Americans to borrow https://t.co/EVestTopKe ...