Core Insights - A significant majority of Americans report an increase in monthly household costs, with 74% indicating rises of at least $100 compared to the previous year [2][5] - Despite claims from the Trump administration that inflation is under control, the public sentiment reflects ongoing economic concerns, with 54% believing the economy is in a recession [7][8] - The inflation rate has decreased from over 9% in 2022 to 2.9% in August, yet it remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [4] Economic Sentiment - The Harris poll indicates that inflation is perceived as the biggest risk to the US economy, with 31% of Republicans and 33% of independents identifying it as such [8][10] - Pessimism about the economy has increased among independents, with 41% expressing negative views about the Democratic party and 43% about the Republican party [19] Policy Perspectives - Economic policies proposed by Democrats, such as a federal ban on price gouging and expanding the child tax credit, are more popular among voters compared to Trump's policies [16][17] - Trump's most supported policy, eliminating taxes on social security, has 43% approval, while other policies like mass deportation and tax cuts are less favored [17] Voter Dynamics - The 2024 presidential election is seen as a referendum on Biden's economic policies, with many voters dissatisfied with the economic situation post-COVID [6][15] - The shift in independent voters' sentiments may have contributed to Trump's electoral success, as they were previously more aligned with Democrats [14]

Core Insights - Bitcoin demonstrated resilience during the recent market volatility, bending but not breaking, unlike many other cryptocurrencies [1] - There is a growing belief among investors that Bitcoin may not experience severe declines linked to its historical four-year halving cycle [2] Market Dynamics - Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, argues that the traditional narrative of Bitcoin's volatility and cyclical crashes is diminishing [3] - Hayes suggests that the influence of global liquidity on supply and demand is becoming more significant than the historical price cycles associated with Bitcoin's halving events [4] Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's increasing tolerance for inflation above its 2% target could lead to a faster growth rate of the money supply, potentially benefiting Bitcoin as an inflation hedge [5] - Institutional investment in Bitcoin is growing, with the largest U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF nearing $93 billion in net assets, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance and demand [6] Future Outlook - A prominent investor posits that cyclical declines in Bitcoin's price may be less likely to recur due to these evolving market dynamics [7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that tariffs from the Trump administration are leading to increased costs for businesses, which are being passed on to consumers [1][2] - Despite these challenges, the overall economy has shown little change, with low recession risks highlighted by analysts [1][6] Economic Impact of Tariffs - Tariff-induced price hikes have been reported across multiple Federal Reserve districts, with some businesses absorbing costs initially while others have begun to pass these costs onto consumers [2] - Price-sensitive behavior is noted among lower- and middle-income households, who are actively seeking discounts amid rising prices and economic uncertainty [3] Consumer Burden and Economic Outlook - Eric Teal, Chief Investment Officer for Comerica Wealth Management, suggests that consumers will ultimately bear a greater burden from tariff costs as companies exhaust their options to mitigate these expenses [4] - The report covers a period before a recent government shutdown, which may exacerbate existing economic weaknesses, as noted by Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial [5] Recession Risks and Labor Market - Despite the economic slowdown, Roach believes that recession risks remain well-contained, supported by a stable labor market where temporary hiring is preferred over full-time positions [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates in the remaining meetings of the year, reflecting the current economic conditions [6]

The jolt in inflation of the 2020s that followed pandemic money-creation and fiscal stimuli was just a taste of what is to come. We explain why https://t.co/07rWSOlDwF ...

Core Insights - The cost of living crisis and inflation in Singapore have heightened the importance of dividends as a source of income for households [1][2] - The article examines four dividend-paying companies on the Singapore Exchange to assess their ability to provide sustainable dividends amid inflation [1] Group 1: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) - CICT, the largest retail and office REIT in Singapore, reported a 3.5% year-over-year increase in distribution per unit (DPU) to S$0.562 for 1H2025, with a portfolio occupancy rate of 96.3% [4] - The REIT's retail properties and Grade A office buildings provide stable rental income, supported by redevelopment plans for long-term growth [5] - Potential risks include rising interest rates affecting financing costs and the long-term impact of e-commerce on physical retail [5] Group 2: DBS Group - DBS Group has benefited from elevated interest rates, achieving distributions between 5% to 6% since 2022, with a quarterly dividend of S$0.60 and special dividends totaling S$3 per share for a yield of approximately 5.7% [7][8] - The bank's diversified revenue streams and strong capital position support its dividend capacity, although future earnings may be impacted as interest rates decline [7][8] - Management anticipates annual dividend increases of S$0.24, contingent on maintaining a return on equity of 15% to 17% [9] Group 3: OCBC - OCBC has shown steady earnings growth, driven by wealth management and insurance, and plans to return S$2.5 billion through special dividends and share buybacks, with a payout ratio near 60% [10] - Historical dividends have increased from S$0.82 in 2023 to S$1.01 per share in 2024, with an interim dividend of S$0.41 for 1H2025 [11] - The bank's earnings are sensitive to interest rate cycles and economic conditions in Greater China [11] Group 4: Parkway Life REIT - Parkway Life REIT generates stable revenues through long master lease agreements indexed to inflation, with a DPU yield of around 3.6% [12] - For 1H2025, the DPU was S$0.0765, reflecting a 1.5% increase from the previous year, supported by a solid financial position with a gearing ratio of 35.4% [13] - The REIT's revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.2% over the past decade, making it an attractive defensive investment [13] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Diversification is essential for offsetting inflation, combining dividend stocks with different drivers such as property markets, interest rates, and inflation indexation [14][15] - CICT offers exposure to the property market, while DBS and OCBC provide higher yields but are sensitive to interest rate changes [14] - Parkway Life REIT offers inflation protection through indexed leases, albeit at lower yields [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, specifically analyzing inflation trends in September 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **CPI Trends**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed continued weakness in food prices, stabilizing at **0.7% MoM SAAR** after a sharp decline in July and August. A rebound in vegetable and fruit prices offset weaker pork prices due to slower supply adjustments meeting soft demand [2][3] 2. **Core CPI Performance**: Core CPI was supported by a base effect and gold prices, but month-over-month (MoM) figures softened notably. Home appliance prices decreased to **4.4% MoM SAAR** from a year-to-date strength of **9%**, while auto prices declined by **3% MoM SAAR** [3][11] 3. **PPI Analysis**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM turned slightly negative, averaging **0%** for midstream PPI. Stronger non-ferrous metals prices offset weaker steel products, while downstream PPI softened to **-0.2% MoM** led by food and durables [4][11] 4. **Outlook for Core CPI and PPI**: Core CPI is expected to improve slightly in October due to holiday impacts and gold prices, but a higher comparison base will constrain further upside in year-over-year (YoY) figures starting in November. PPI MoM averaged **0%** in 4Q24, indicating steady yet soft demand [5][11] Additional Important Insights 1. **Gold's Contribution**: Gold consumption accounts for **0.8%** of the core CPI basket, contributing approximately **0.3pp** to the **1.0% YoY** core CPI recorded in September [11] 2. **Comparison Base Shift**: The comparison base for core CPI and PPI is expected to shift from a tailwind to a headwind in 4Q25, which may impact future inflation metrics [11] 3. **Inflation Metrics Summary**: The summary table indicates that the YoY CPI was **-0.3%** in September, with food prices showing a significant decline of **-4.4%** MoM. The PPI YoY was reported at **-2.3%**, reflecting broader economic trends [7][11] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of inflation in China and its implications for the economy.

By Leika Kihara WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan must keep monetary policy loose and move very gradually in raising interest rates as global trade uncertainty clouds the economic outlook, a senior International Monetary Fund official said on Wednesday. Japan's economy has performed better than expected so far this year on robust consumption and exports, with Tokyo's trade deal with Washington easing some uncertainty, said Nada Choueiri, deputy director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department. Bu ...

Australia’s central bank sees the drag from tight financial conditions easing, helping the economy to stay near full employment with inflation returning to target, according to Assistant Governor Christopher Kent https://t.co/rTqPsnK8TD ...

Core Insights - Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (NASDAQ:GGAL) experienced a significant decline in share prices, dropping by 5.98% to close at $32.21 amid rising inflation expectations in Argentina [1][4] - Analysts predict that Argentina's inflation rate has increased from August, which may lead to interest rate hikes that could further hinder the struggling Argentine economy [2] - The company appointed Diego Hernan Rivas as the new CEO of its banking subsidiary, Banco de Galicia y Buenos Aires SA, during a challenging economic period characterized by high inflation and weak consumer confidence [3][4] Company Developments - The leadership change at Grupo Financiero Galicia comes at a critical time, as investors are keen to see how Rivas will navigate the bank's strategy amid ongoing economic challenges [4] - Banco de Galicia, the largest subsidiary of Grupo Financiero Galicia, is one of the largest banks operating in Argentina, making its performance crucial for the overall health of the company [4]

Uh, Victoria, we we got the S&P 500. It's up modestly. We're still about a percent and a half below last week's record high after that wobble we had on Friday.Has anything in terms of the underpinnings of this rally. You know, a steady economy, Fed going to cut rates, the AI excitement. Is anything changed or have there been reasons you see to question those premises.>> Yeah, Mike, I don't think there's been a huge change in what we've seen. Now, we have had some of the momentum, that underlying momentum in ...