Core Viewpoint - Amundi's 2025 global investment outlook indicates a strong performance in the US stock market, while European markets are stabilizing, influenced by AI capital expenditure expectations and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The US stock market reached new highs in August, while European markets approached March levels, with corporate credit spreads narrowing during the summer [1] - Market sentiment is buoyed by strong earnings in the US and a relatively mild position from the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting, despite underlying economic risks [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policies - Key themes for the medium term include rising US inflation expectations, increased fiscal spending plans in the US and EU, and ongoing accommodative monetary policies, leading to rising yields across major economies [2] - The yield curve is steepening due to concerns over fiscal deficits, particularly in the US and Europe, with long-term yields expected to rise further due to pension reforms in some European countries [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Amid rising geopolitical risks, Amundi suggests diversifying investments away from the US market towards Europe and Japan, as Europe is better positioned to mitigate tariff-related shocks through fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a focus on financially sound companies and special risks, while also capitalizing on opportunities arising from weak stock prices [3] Group 4: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are showing signs of recovery, with improvements in economic conditions in countries like China and India, while Brazil and Indonesia's political situations are back in focus [4] - Internal tax reforms in countries like India are expected to boost domestic consumption, which is a key growth driver, and the overall positive outlook for emerging markets is supported by a dovish Federal Reserve [4] Group 5: Risk Assets and Economic Outlook - Despite a lack of extreme macroeconomic data in the US and Europe, Amundi maintains a cautious outlook on US economic growth due to deteriorating labor market conditions and potential consumption suppression from tariffs [5] - The company is slightly optimistic about risk assets, including emerging markets, and suggests allocating to gold and stock hedging tools to enhance protection against geopolitical risks and fiscal deterioration [5]

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Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. The potential tariff-revenue checks proposed by President Donald Trump could exacerbate inflation, warn economists. The checks, which could range from $1,000 to $2,000, might lead to increased consumer spending, potentially driving up inflation. Economists Warn Tariff Checks May Spur "Weird Feedback Loop" The economists are concerned that the tariff-revenue checks could create a “weird feedback loop” that ...

Australia’s underlying inflation in the three months through September is likely to be stronger than the Reserve Bank had anticipated, Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said https://t.co/otnKu8dQuT ...

both the supply and demand for for uh labor has declined declined quite sharply. So you know those two those two uh states of affairs for our two variables or two goal variables call for different monetary policy responses. So uh as they come more into balance I think the idea has been that that policy should move from being you know tight to some degree to being more neutral as those two things balance out.It's it is clear though that you know if we move too quickly then we may leave the inflation job unfi ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are closely monitored by homebuyers affected by high mortgage rates [1][2] - The Fed's recent actions, including a quarter-percentage point cut in the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), have led to a decrease in mortgage rates from approximately 6.5% to 6.3% [4][8] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated the possibility of utilizing additional tools to provide relief to borrowers amid conflicting pressures on employment and inflation [5][6] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed does not directly control mortgage rates, but changes in the FFR influence them indirectly through Treasury note yields [2] - After three rate cuts in late 2024 totaling 1%, the Fed was hesitant to make further cuts due to inflation concerns [3][7] - The FFR was reduced to a range of 4% to 4.25% in September, following a rise in unemployment to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Inflation increased to 2.9% in August, up from a low of 2.3% in April, influenced by newly enacted tariffs [8] - The jobs market has shown signs of weakening, with independent reports suggesting further deterioration [10]

Market Overview - The Dow closed higher, while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 experienced declines, particularly influenced by President Trump's comments regarding China's soybean purchases [2][4][7] - The S&P 500 closed down nearly 0.81%, while the Dow gained approximately 0.4% [4][7] Semiconductor Sector - AMD's stock rose by about 0.8% due to Oracle's investment in AI chips [4] - Broadcom's stock fell by approximately 3.5% after a previous gain following a deal with OpenAI [5] - Nvidia's stock closed down about 4.4%, unable to maintain earlier momentum [6] Transportation Sector - United Airlines' stock increased by over 4% ahead of its earnings report, following Delta's strong performance last week [6] Consumer Market - The average price of a new vehicle in the U.S. surpassed $50,000 for the first time, marking a 3.6% year-over-year increase and a 2.1% increase from August [25][26] - The rise in vehicle prices is attributed to tariffs, inflation in car parts, and the increasing popularity of higher-priced electric vehicles (EVs) [26][27] Economic Outlook - The IMF projects global growth at 3.2% for this year and 3.1% for next year, with tariffs contributing to a modest downgrade in growth expectations [34][39] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is close to 20%, impacting trade dynamics and supply chains [35][46] - The U.S. economy is experiencing resilience due to factors such as high labor productivity and a favorable interest rate environment [17][20]

Markets tried to stage a comeback today as investors try to digest the latest tariff headlines, but could concerns also spill over into private capital markets. Joining us now is Suna Hala. She is the global head of private capital advisory at Raymond James.Great to have you also here on set. So, some other stuff. Is this a canary in the coal mine.>> Well, it certainly could be. I think um canary or not, we have to admit that private credit has been a huge inflow into the credit markets. It's now a mainstay ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding the approach to setting interest rates, with differing opinions on how to balance inflation control and employment support [2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreement - A split is emerging within the Federal Open Market Committee, with one faction concerned about the labor market and advocating for significant rate cuts, while another prioritizes inflation control and favors a cautious approach [3][10]. - Fed officials are facing a dilemma due to conflicting economic indicators, as the economy grapples with both rising inflation and potential job losses [5][6]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Predictions - Investors generally anticipate a 0.25 percentage point cut in interest rates at the next two Federal Reserve meetings, but the outlook beyond that remains uncertain [4]. - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that future rate movements are difficult to predict based on current fed funds futures trading data [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The disagreement among Fed officials underscores the challenges posed by tariffs and other economic policies, which have led to higher inflation while risking increased unemployment [5][6]. - Fed officials are tasked with balancing their dual mandate from Congress to maintain low inflation and high employment, but the current economic situation complicates this balance [6][10]. Group 4: Perspectives from Fed Officials - Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, cautioned against rapid rate cuts, emphasizing the need for careful consideration of inflation trends before making decisions [7][9]. - On the other end, Fed Governor Stephen Miran supports aggressive rate cuts, believing that current economic policies will eventually reduce inflation [10].

[Music] Hello and welcome to Market Domination. I'm Josh Lipton live from our NYC headquarters. Stocks recovered early losses after US China trade tensions reescalated. Plus, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell's remarks are impacting markets, too. We're going to dig into those stories in just a moment. But first, there's just an hour to go until the closing bell. Let's take a look now at stocks at the major averages. They're mixed here. The Dow is up about 410 points. Your broad gauge, the S&P 500 is up about ...