Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - The September PCE report indicated inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year, the fastest pace since spring 2024, and is the last major economic data before the Federal Reserve's December meeting [1] - Investors anticipate the Fed will cut rates on December 10th, with expectations of a potential hawkish cut due to inflation concerns [2][6] - The Fed is expected to have room for further cuts, with inflation projected to decrease from close to 3% to around 2% next year [4][27] Inflation and Consumer Spending - Durable goods inflation has been affected by tariffs, which initially caused a decline but later increased [3] - Despite a significant increase in prices since the pandemic (over 20%), average hourly earnings have risen slightly more, though many individuals below the average have not kept pace with price increases [11][12] - Consumer spending has shown resilience, with $44 billion spent over five days during the holiday shopping period, indicating a disconnect between consumer behavior and economic data [53] Labor Market and Employment Trends - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.4%, suggesting full employment, despite concerns about job market softness [52] - Job growth is expected to average around 80,000 for 2026, with a potential pickup in hiring across cyclical sectors like retail and finance [85] - The job market is experiencing pressures from AI, which has replaced some entry-level positions and increased productivity, leading to hiring slowdowns [90] Market Dynamics and Investment Outlook - The market is expected to focus on the competitive landscape in AI, with a potential broadening of investment opportunities beyond the top tech stocks [21] - Economic growth is anticipated to benefit from significant stimulus, including tax cuts and celebrations for the 250th birthday of the United States, potentially leading to a double-digit increase in the S&P next year [9] - Concerns about affordability persist, particularly for lower-income consumers, which could impact political dynamics ahead of the midterm elections [13][15] Federal Reserve Leadership and Policy Implications - The potential nomination of Kevin Hasset as the next Fed chair raises questions about the future direction of monetary policy, though it is noted that he would only be one vote among many [30][78] - The Fed's credibility has improved, with members showing unity in recent decisions, which may support a more dovish approach in the future [81][82] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates mixed signals in consumer spending and hiring, which may influence their decision-making in the upcoming meeting [87][92]

Inflation and Interest Rates - September PCE report showed inflation rose 28% year-over-year, the fastest pace since spring 2024 [1] - Tariffs impacted durable goods inflation, but overall inflation is expected to decrease from nearly 3% to around 2% next year [3][4] - The market anticipates the Fed will cut rates, but some dissenters suggest a more cautious approach [6] - Long-term yields are expected to remain around 4%, potentially rising to 45%, due to sticky inflation and supply issues [37] Economic Outlook - The US economy may experience a "code red affordability moment," particularly affecting lower-income individuals and young people [2][13] - Stimulus from tax cuts, the World Cup, and the US's 250th birthday could lead to a strong economic year [9] - Consumer spending remains strong, despite concerns about affordability [16][18] - AI is estimated to contribute about 25% to GDP growth, with AI-related capital expenditure representing approximately 15% of GDP [73][72] Market Dynamics - The market may broaden beyond the "Magnificent Seven" to focus on the "Impressive 493" stocks in the S&P 500, leveraging AI for productivity gains [21] - Bitcoin is primarily a trading vehicle influenced by technical factors rather than fundamentals, with stablecoins potentially replacing its transaction function [23][25] - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with increased layoff announcements and employers limiting headcount [89] - The Beige Book indicates cooler consumer spending and hiring, along with moderate price increases [87][91]

Market Overview - Inflation is beginning to rise, influencing upcoming Federal Reserve actions [2] - Corporate earnings are projected to increase by 5% to 9%, potentially pushing the S&P 500 to the 7400 range by Q1 2026 [3] - Positive market sentiment is noted, although some signs of losing momentum are present [4] Company Analysis: Alphabet - Alphabet is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity, particularly in the chip sector, where competition with Nvidia is expected to drive innovation [5][6] - Projected growth for Alphabet is estimated at 12% to 14%, which is considered conservative [7] - The stock is currently trading at approximately $316.25, with an 80% increase over the last six months [15] Company Analysis: Critical Metals - Critical Metals has faced a decline of nearly 12% over the past month, attributed to geopolitical factors, particularly the US-China trade relationship [16][17] - The stock is viewed as undervalued, with potential for a 10% increase over the next 18 months [18] - The company is seen as a necessary supplier in the rare metals sector, which is critical for US needs [17] Company Analysis: SoFi - SoFi is identified as an undervalued stock within the financial sector, with expectations of a 10% to 14% increase over the next 18 months [27] - The stock has been under pressure due to a recent $1.5 billion stock offering, but it is viewed as a turnaround opportunity [26][28] - Year-to-date, SoFi has increased by 76%, indicating potential for further growth as the financial sector begins to recover [36]

Core Viewpoint - Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. (BDL) has shown strong short-term stock performance, gaining 11.8% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the industry and sector averages [1][6]. Financial Performance - For the 13 weeks ended June 28, 2025, BDL reported strong revenue and profit growth, driven by increased restaurant food and bar sales, higher package store sales, and modest franchise revenue growth [2]. - Menu price increases implemented over the past year have helped mitigate rising costs in food, liquor, and wages, with expectations for continued sales growth through fiscal 2025 [3][9]. Market Position - BDL operates 32 establishments, including restaurants and liquor stores, and franchises five units, indicating robust growth potential in the South Florida market [7]. - The company has outperformed competitors like Ark Restaurants Corp. and Nathan's Famous, which experienced stock declines of 2% and 13.3%, respectively, over the same period [6]. Business Model - BDL's diversified operations across restaurants and liquor stores provide resilience and multiple revenue streams, stabilizing performance across consumer cycles [10]. - The company benefits from durable cash flows through franchise agreements and real estate ownership, which support long-term asset value [11]. Challenges - BDL faces inflation and wage pressures that are increasing operating expenses, which may limit pricing power and margin protection [12]. - Intense competition in the South Florida market poses challenges for pricing and staff retention, potentially impacting profitability [12]. Valuation - BDL's trailing 12-month EV/Sales ratio of 0.28X is lower than the industry average of 4.11X but higher than its five-year median of 0.26X, indicating potential for growth [13][15]. Investment Outlook - The company's strong core business, earnings potential, and financial stability suggest favorable growth prospects, making it an attractive option for both existing and new investors [16][17].

Let's bring in David Biano, DWS Group, America's CIO. David, good to see you. >> Morning, Mike.>> Uh market seems to have been expressing a lot of confidence that we'll get the Fed rate cut. It's also going to be kind of an insurance cut. The overall economy may be looking to pick up early next year.Uh we're kind of priced for that. How you see things. >> Beware what you wish for during the holiday season because we expect markets to expect the Fed to cut this week.They certainly have not pushed back agains ...

Steve Leeman has that story. Hey, Steve. >> Yeah, Mike.Some breaking or bad breaking inflation data from the government. Not about the levels, but about the release of data. We just learned from the BLS that the October and November PPI or wholesale inflation reports will now be delayed until January 14th and released with the December data when it comes out.This is longer than many expected the BLS to take to catch up. No, November PPI was originally scheduled for December 11th. New dates for the October a ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin ETFs attracted $352 million last week, representing approximately 50% of total crypto fund inflows, with XRP funds following closely behind [1][3] - Short-Bitcoin products experienced outflows of $18.7 million, indicating a potential bottom in negative sentiment among ETP investors [2] - Total crypto fund inflows for the week reached $716 million, with XRP funds contributing $244 million and Ethereum funds adding $39 million [3] Market Trends - Bitcoin's trading price was $90,259, reflecting a 1% increase in the past day and a 6.6% rise over the past week [2] - Total assets under management in the ETF sector have increased by 7.9% from November lows to $180 billion, although still below the all-time high of $264 billion [4] - Recent macroeconomic data indicated ongoing inflationary pressures, with the PCE index showing a year-over-year increase of 2.8% in September, slightly down from August's 2.9% [4] Investor Sentiment - The introduction of a new leveraged ETF for XRP coincided with its significant inflows, suggesting positive investor sentiment towards XRP [3] - Users on the Myriad prediction market platform anticipate a 94% chance of a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Open Market Committee [5]

Group 1 - A recent SHRM survey indicates that 75% of CEOs expect further workforce reductions or layoffs in the broader economy next year due to economic and technological uncertainties [1] - Artificial intelligence (AI) adoption is identified as the primary objective for 2026, surpassing goals like growing revenue and attracting top talent [2] - Economic factors such as inflation and tariffs, along with AI adoption, are influencing organizations' decisions to conduct layoffs or slow hiring [3] Group 2 - Job cuts in October were reported to be up 175% year over year, reaching the highest single-month totals since 2008 [4] - 81% of CEOs anticipate rising labor and workforce costs next year, while 74% expect restructuring efforts, often involving hiring independent contractors and gig workers [5] - 27% of CEOs prioritize attracting top talent over the next twelve months, despite challenges in finding skilled talent for in-demand roles [6]

https://t.co/8XaDNn6PcNThe Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter):BREAKING: The US Labor Department announces it has cancelled the October PPI inflation report. ...

Core Insights - There is a significant disconnect between average Americans and financial advisors regarding retirement risks, which may jeopardize long-term financial security [1] Group 1: Retirement Risks Perception - The primary concern for consumers regarding retirement is inflation, with 63% identifying it as a risk, while advisors do not rank it among the top risks [3] - Financial advisors consider the most significant retirement risks to be outliving savings (56%) and market volatility (51%) [3] Group 2: Perspectives on Risks - The differing perspectives arise from the immediate experiences of consumers with inflation versus the long-term planning focus of advisors [4] - Consumers tend to underestimate their longevity, leading to inflation being perceived as a more pressing concern than it may be in long-term planning [5] Group 3: Addressing Risks - Both consumers and advisors have valid points; addressing both inflation and the risks of outliving savings and market volatility is essential for a successful retirement strategy [6]