futures in positive territory this morning. Join us now now for a look at the markets. Lori uh Kalvasina, she is RBC's capital markets head of US equity research.Good morning. >> Good morning. >> And the question that I would ask you is what do we do in this sort of topyturvy world of both.We're getting all these earnings reports, but I can't tell whether I'm supposed to focus on that or focus on what Trump is saying about tariffs in China. >> So, I I think unfortunately we have to deal with both right now. ...

Market Overview - The market is currently at or near record highs, with a recent pullback that has not deterred the ongoing rally, which many analysts have been skeptical about [1][2] - There is a significant concentration in the US equity market, particularly among a few companies known as the "Mag 7," which raises concerns about dependency on these stocks for market performance [3] Portfolio Management Strategies - To manage risk and prepare for potential market sell-offs, portfolio managers can diversify with assets like bonds or commodities and utilize option-based strategies for structural protection [4][5] - Options provide a reliable form of downside protection and can generate income that is not sensitive to interest rate changes, which is increasingly important as the market enters a rate-cutting cycle [5][6] Options Market Insights - The current environment for options is characterized by relatively low volatility compared to historical averages, making it essential for portfolio managers to assess the relative value of options carefully [6][7] - Effective strategies include avoiding leverage when selling options and diversifying option overlays by trading small slices of options regularly to reduce path dependency [8][9][10] Demand for Income and Defensive Strategies - There is a growing demand for income-oriented and defensive strategies, particularly as investors seek to reduce risk exposure and add income sources that do not rely on interest rates [12][13] - The "income advantage suite" of funds is gaining traction as investors look to take profits from recent market rallies and manage excess cash in a cautious manner [14][16][17] Market Risks and Future Outlook - Concerns about high valuations and market concentration are prevalent, with potential risks arising from a slowdown in the labor market and its impact on consumer confidence [25][26] - The interplay between stock market performance and the real economy is critical, as retail investor sentiment can significantly influence economic conditions [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The current rally in gold prices, as indicated by the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD), presents both opportunities and risks for investors, suggesting that gold can be both a profitable investment and prone to significant declines at the same time [1][2]. Summary by Sections Gold Market Performance - Gold has experienced a nearly parabolic increase, rising 20% since late August [1]. - The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) for GLD has reached an all-time high, indicating it is more richly valued than at any point in the last 20 years, with a historical precedent of a nearly 50% decline following similar peaks in 2012 [2]. Investment Strategies - Investors in GLD have seen solid gains recently, and a recommended strategy to mitigate risk while retaining upside is to reduce their position size, effectively locking in some profits [5]. - The use of leveraged ETFs, such as the Direxion Daily Gold Bull 3X Shares ETF (BAR), allows investors to "downshift" after a profitable trade by selling GLD and reallocating a small portion into BAR for increased volatility [5].

Market Overview - US stock futures showed little change, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing at record highs after a brief pullback [1][2] - Gold prices are hovering near all-time highs, driven by market optimism and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts [2][38] Federal Reserve Insights - Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting indicate a willingness to lower rates further this year, although some members expressed caution due to inflation concerns [2][30] - Fed Chair Jay Powell is expected to discuss community banking risks and innovations, without addressing monetary policy directly [26][28] Delta Airlines - Delta reported third-quarter adjusted revenue of $15.2 billion, a 4.1% increase year-over-year, with adjusted EPS at $1.71, exceeding expectations [7][8] - The airline's CEO expressed optimism for the fourth quarter, anticipating strong growth and profitability, despite potential concerns from a government shutdown affecting air traffic controllers [9][10] PepsiCo - PepsiCo's quarterly earnings and revenue surpassed analyst expectations, with a notable 2% growth in its beverage business, while the snacking sector saw a 3% decline [5][16] - The company is under pressure from activist investor Elliot Management, which holds a $4 billion stake and is pushing for a review of its snack portfolio [4][19] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported a 30% increase in third-quarter sales, driven by AI-related demand, contributing to a 30% rise in its share price this year [35] - Intel is introducing new products as part of its turnaround strategy, with its Panther Lake processor designs entering full production [33][34] AI Market Sentiment - Investors remain optimistic about the AI trade, with Goldman Sachs noting that concerns about an AI bubble do not indicate imminent danger for the market [22][24] - The ongoing momentum in AI investments continues to overshadow concerns related to the government shutdown and economic data [25][22]

Market Trends & Copper Demand - AI 驱动的数据中心对铜的需求是传统数据中心的 3 到 10 倍 [4] - 10 月份铜价已上涨 12%，今年累计上涨 27%，突破每磅 5 美元 [1] - 市场意识到铜的需求将会增长 [3] Company Performance & Strategic Positioning - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) 铜矿的停产影响了全球 3% 的铜供应 [5][6] - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) 约 70% 到 75% 的收入来自铜，25% 到 30% 来自黄金 [7] - 政府可能会将 Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) 视为战略资产，并可能对其进行投资 [6][7] Investment Opportunities & Risks - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) 被认为是铜价上涨的最大受益者 [10] - BHP Group (BHP) 的 IBIDA 中约 45% 来自铜 [8] - Rio Tinto (RIO) 是一个具有追赶潜力的投资选择，但风险较高，涉及重组和诉讼 [9]

Market Performance - US stocks experienced a rally, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the gains, closing above 23,000 for the first time, up over 1% [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished just below the flatline [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The latest Federal Reserve minutes indicated potential for more rate cuts throughout the remainder of 2025, despite showing divisions within the central bank [2][3] - Participants in the meeting expressed varied opinions on the restrictiveness of current monetary policy and the future path of policy, with most agreeing on the appropriateness of further easing [3] Gold Market - Gold futures continued their record-breaking rally, surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time, as investors sought the asset as a "debasement trade" alternative to the dollar [2] Economic Uncertainty - The ongoing federal shutdown has created uncertainty in the markets, impacting AI spending and raising concerns about a potential dot-com-style bubble [4] - The shutdown has deprived Wall Street and the Federal Reserve of crucial economic data necessary for informed decision-making [4]

Market Overview - U.S. markets opened positively with the Nasdaq up by 0.26%, Dow by 0.25%, and S&P 500 by 0.20% [1] - The Russell 2000 index showed signs of decline, indicating potential volatility ahead [2] Gold and Precious Metals - Spot Gold prices rose 4.5% overnight, reaching $4,000 per ounce for the first time, reflecting a doubling in value over two years [3] - Continuous Gold Contract increased by 1.56% to $4,066.90, following Spot Gold's milestone [2] - Other precious metals also saw gains, with Spot Silver up 2.5%, Spot Platinum up 2.76%, and Spot Palladium up 5.39% [4] Economic Indicators - The 10-Year Treasury yield fell by 2.1 basis points to 4.106%, while the 20-Year and 30-Year yields decreased by 2.8 and 2.7 basis points, respectively [2] - The upcoming third quarter earnings season is anticipated to bring significant market activity [5]

Market Overview - Major indexes experienced a decline, ending a seven-day winning streak for the S&P 500, with the Dow down 91 points (-0.20%), S&P 500 down 25 points (-0.38%), Nasdaq down 155 points (-0.68%), and Russell 2000 down 25 points (-1.02%) [1] - Bond yields also retreated, with the 10-year yield at 4.13% and the 2-year yield at 3.57% [1] AI Trade Concerns - There is growing skepticism regarding the sustainability of the AI trade, with questions about whether the current market multiples are justified or if the market is in a bubble [2] Gold Market - Gold prices surpassed $4,000 for the first time, closing at $3,981 per troy ounce, reflecting a +0.76% increase [3] - The rise in gold prices is viewed as a hedge against potential market volatility, particularly as the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs [3] Consumer Credit Trends - Consumer credit saw a significant decline to $363 million in August, down from a $16.0 billion increase the previous month, and well below expectations of $14.0 million [4] - The decline is attributed to deteriorating credit quality, rising credit card balances, and increased delinquencies, with revolving credit down -5.5% year over year [4] Economic Indicators - The data indicates a softening U.S. economy, characterized by a weakening labor market and rising inflation costs, contributing to the pullback in consumer credit [5] - No major economic reports are scheduled for release, and the government shutdown is expected to limit new data availability [6] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the Fed funds rate to 4.00-4.25% for the first time in three years [7] - The next FOMC meeting is anticipated to discuss further rate cuts, although the lack of government reports due to the shutdown complicates the outlook [8]

Market Overview - The AI trade continues to drive market sentiment, particularly following the significant deal between OpenAI and AMD, which is expected to add billions in sales for AMD over the next few years [3][9][12] - Major stock indexes opened positively, with the Dow up approximately 88 points, and AMD seeing a notable increase of 7% after a 23% rise the previous day [5][6] - Gold prices have surged, hitting record highs, with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, indicating a strong demand for commodities amid rising equities [7][31] Corporate Performance - McCormick, the maker of Frank's RedHot sauce, has lowered its full-year profit forecast due to increased costs from tariffs [4] - Constellation Brands is facing challenges with weak consumer demand, highlighting the impact of changing consumer preferences [4] - Dell has raised its long-term revenue growth outlook from 3-4% to 7-9% due to a positive outlook on AI [12][15] AI Sector Insights - The partnership between OpenAI and AMD is seen as a pivotal moment for the AI sector, challenging skepticism about peak AI infrastructure and future demand [9][10] - AMD's CEO emphasized the potential of AI technology, suggesting that the industry is in the early stages of a significant growth cycle [11] - Analysts have expressed concerns about the sustainability of AI stock valuations, warning that current multiples may pose risks for new investors [13][27] Tariff Impact - A KPMG survey revealed that 89% of CEOs believe tariffs will significantly affect business performance over the next three years, with 86% planning to increase prices [43][44] - CEOs are actively adjusting supply chains and pricing strategies in response to tariff-related costs [45][48] - The survey indicates a growing concern among CEOs regarding the impact of tariffs on small businesses and overall market stability [47] Investment Strategies - Experts suggest that average retail investors may already have significant exposure to AI stocks and should consider diversifying their portfolios to mitigate risks [19][22] - Leveraged ETFs are gaining interest as investors look for ways to capitalize on the AI trend, although caution is advised for average investors [20][21] - The discussion around gold as a hedge against market volatility is prominent, with some analysts favoring AI investments for potential growth despite the risks [34][38]

Look, you either believe or you don't believe. It is as simple as that. You either accept that Open AAI is going to pay for the billions of dollars of chips they just ordered from AI AMD or you refuse to believe it and you assume AMD will get stiff because OpenAI doesn't have the money or won't need the chips.I prefer to accept the answer I got on this squawk on the street this very morning from Lisa Sue, the brilliant CEO of AMD. She's not worried and neither is Greg Brockman, the co-founder and president ...