Market Performance & Earnings - Dow Jones outperformed S&P 500 and NASDAQ over the last week and month, partly due to 3M and Coca-Cola earnings [1] - The market is experiencing record earnings and profit margins with continued strong guidance [2] - The market anticipates a good size fourth quarter rally [3] Bull Market Analysis - Since 1950, the average bull market lasts about eight years, and the current bull market is in its fourth year [4] - The shortest bull market lasted 5 years, suggesting the current bull market may continue despite feeling old [5] - High volatility (VIX around 29) with a strong S&P 500 is similar to December 1998 and October 2020, which were good times to consider long equities [5] - A 10-point drop in the VIX in two days historically signals an "all clear" [6] Potential Risks & Concerns - There are cracks in the market, including regional banks and housing [7] - Lending concerns could be a potential speed bump [8] - High yield bonds weakened and regional banks have been lagging [11] Market Indicators - S&P 500's advanced decline line hit an all-time high, which historically peaks and goes lower, indicating potential underlying cracks [9] - Credit spreads are not showing massive stress [10]

Financial Performance - Revenues aligned with expectations at $1151 billion [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $587, missing the estimate of $697% [1] - Operating margin was 282%, lower than the street account estimate of 317% and below the guidance of 315% [2] Explanations for Underperformance - Lower than anticipated operating margin attributed to an expense related to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian tax authorities [2] Future Outlook - Company guides to Q4 revenues ahead of estimates [2] - Company guides to Q4 EPS a penny ahead of the street account estimate [2]

Market Overview & Strategy - The analysis focuses on the "MAG7" stocks (excluding Nvidia due to prior reporting) as market leaders, questioning their defensive nature [1][2] - Analyst owns Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon in personal portfolio as long-term picks [24] - The analysis suggests that most MAG7 stocks are breaking out and, while some are expensive, earnings growth remains strong, except for Tesla [25] Individual Stock Analysis - **Tesla (TSLA):** Earnings are volatile with inconsistent beats and misses; earnings are expected to fall 32% this year but rebound 48.5% in 2026; focus is on robo-taxi rollout and new stripped-down car sales [3][4][5] - **Microsoft (MSFT):** Consistent earnings growth with fiscal 2026 expected to be up 12.9% and fiscal 2027 up 16%; shares are up 23.5% year-to-date [8][9] - **Alphabet (GOOGL):** Good earnings growth expected for 2025 at 23.6%, but slower growth of 7.2% in 2026; year-to-date, up 35.5% and relatively cheaper with a price-to-sales ratio of 8.3% and PE of 25 [11][12] - **Meta (META):** Strong earning surprise track record; earnings expected to be up 18% this year, but only 5.5% next year; year-to-date up 21.7%, PE of 25, and price-to-sales of 10 [13][14][15] - **Apple (AAPL):** Shares hitting new all-time highs, but only up 8.3% year-to-date; slower growth expected for next year; PE of 32, price-to-sales of 9.1% [16][17][19] - **Amazon (AMZN):** Shares are down 2.4% year-to-date and underperforming the S&P 500 over five years; cheapest of the MAG7s with a price-to-sales of 3.4%; earnings growth of 23.5% this year and 12.2% next year [20][21] Valuation Metrics - Price-to-sales ratios are stretched for many MAG7 stocks, with some above 10 [9][12] - Amazon is the cheapest of the MAG7s with a price-to-sales ratio of 3.4 [20] Key Dates - Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are all reporting on October 29th [7][13] - Apple and Amazon are reporting on October 30th [23] - Tesla will be reporting this week [23]

Core Insights - ICICI Bank Ltd.'s profit after tax for Q2 fiscal 2026 was INR123.6 billion ($1.42 billion), reflecting a 5.2% increase year-over-year [1][10] Financial Performance - The growth in profit was driven by an increase in net interest income (NII) and non-interest income, alongside lower provisions [2] - NII rose 7.4% year-over-year to INR215.3 billion ($2.47 billion), with a net interest margin of 4.30%, up 3 basis points [3] - Non-interest income reached INR73.6 billion ($843 million), a 13.2% increase year-over-year, while fee income grew 10.1% to INR64.9 billion ($743.2 million) [3] - Operating expenses increased by 12.4% year-over-year to INR118.1 billion ($1.35 billion), which negatively impacted the overall profit growth [4][10] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of September 30, 2025, total advances were INR14,084.6 billion ($158.6 billion), up 3.2% sequentially, driven by growth in retail loans, business banking loans, and domestic corporate loans [5] - Total deposits increased slightly to INR16,128.3 billion ($181.6 billion) [5] Credit Quality - The net non-performing assets (NPA) ratio improved to 0.39%, down from 0.42% in the prior-year period [6] - Recoveries and upgrades of NPAs were INR36.48 billion ($417.7 million) in the reported quarter, with net additions to gross NPA at INR13.86 billion ($158.7 million) [6] Provisions and Capital Ratios - Provisions (excluding tax) decreased by 25.9% year-over-year to INR9.14 billion ($104.7 million) [7] - ICICI Bank's total capital adequacy ratio was 17.00%, with Tier-1 capital adequacy at 16.35%, both exceeding minimum requirements [8]

The three stocks are flashing bullish technical indicators ahead of earnings next week. ...

every once in awhile CT is better than all the top analysts on wall street on certain tickersThe Earnings Correspondent (@earnings_guy):$GLXY (Galaxy Digital) #earnings are out: https://t.co/FyhOE9kMJl ...

Market Risks - Trade policy remains a key risk for markets this quarter [1] - Inflation remains a key risk for markets this quarter [1] Corporate Performance - Corporate bonds remain strong [1] - Corporate earnings remain strong [1]

The S&P 500 extends its rally past +1%.Will you long/short this earnings, share your insights! ...

Earnings vs Federal Reserve - The market currently perceives earnings reports as more significant than Federal Reserve actions, with expectations of two rate cuts by the end of the year reducing uncertainty [1][2] - High valuation levels create a challenging environment for earnings, with a high bar set for companies to meet or exceed expectations [2][4] Market Catalysts - Upcoming earnings reports, Nvidia's GTC, and tariff headlines are identified as critical catalysts for market movement [2][3] - The market is closely monitoring earnings performance, questioning whether results will need to exceed previous benchmarks to satisfy investor expectations [3][4] Regional Bank Credit Concerns - There is a growing discomfort in the market regarding regional bank credit issues, which have emerged in a concentrated timeframe, leading to speculation about potential systemic risks [5][6][9] - Despite concerns, the issues are viewed as idiosyncratic, with a belief that they may not represent a broader credit event risk but could indicate lighter underwriting standards [8][10] Investment Opportunities - High-quality stocks and AI-powered generation companies are recommended as attractive investment opportunities, particularly in the context of energy and grid issues in the U.S. [10][13] - The construction of data centers is highlighted as a sector where power costs are a smaller part of total expenses, suggesting a willingness among major tech companies to invest heavily in energy solutions [13][14]

Market Sentiment & Earnings Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice by year-end, reducing uncertainty related to Fed policy [1] - High valuations and expectations for the "Magnificent Seven" companies raise the bar for earnings results [2] - The market is approaching a point where earnings numbers are "priced to perfection," but not quite there yet [3][4] Regional Bank Credit Concerns - The market is showing discomfort with the concentration of idiosyncratic issues within regional banks, despite hedging activity [6] - Macro investors have been hedging against potential risks in high-yield credit for 3-6 months, mitigating the impact [6] - Concerns exist that regional bank issues may be systemic, reflecting broader, lighter underwriting standards [8][9] - The market is more concerned about consumer credit issues than industrial-side lending problems [10] AI & Power Generation Investment - High-quality stocks and AI power generation companies are attractive investment opportunities [10] - Grid issues in the US make the power sector an attractive part of the market [13] - Companies like Meta and Google may be willing to overpay for power to secure the chips needed to build their competitive advantage [13]