Susan Collins, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Moran, Wyoming, US, on Friday, Aug. 22, 2025.Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins on Wednesday said she will be reluctant to support further interest rate cuts anytime soon with inflation still high and policymakers hampered by a lack of data due to the government shutdown."Given my baselin ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.12%, driven by weakness in the yen, which fell to a 9.25-month low against the dollar due to concerns over Japan's fiscal policy [1][5] - The dollar is under pressure as a resolution to the US government shutdown appears imminent, with the Senate passing a temporary continuing resolution and the House expected to follow suit [2] - Markets are pricing in a 65% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is seen as largely finished with its rate-cut cycle, while the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates several more times by the end of 2026 [4] - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that interest rates are "absolutely" in a good place, citing positive momentum in the Eurozone economy and slightly tilted inflation risks [4] - Swaps are pricing in a 3% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting [4]

Core Insights - Small-cap equities have shown impressive performance over the past 90 days, with some major indices recording double-digit gains, indicating responsiveness to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - The recent strength in small-caps may encourage investors to explore more sophisticated investment strategies, such as the O'Shares U.S. Small-Cap Quality Dividend ETF (OUSM) [2] Fund Overview - OUSM is a $917.8 million fund that emphasizes dividends, low volatility, and quality, distinguishing itself from many traditional small-cap ETFs [3] - The fund's methodology is seen as a potential driver for a rally into year-end, positioning it as a viable small-cap investment for 2026 [4] Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) believes small caps present a strong investment opportunity, supported by easing cycles and attractive valuations, with earnings growth expected to accelerate [5] - Although OUSM was not directly mentioned in the GSAM report, it is suggested that nuanced approaches to small-cap investing could yield rewards [6] Sector Focus - GSAM highlights aerospace/defense, strong consumer names, healthcare, and technology as key sectors for small-cap investments, with OUSM allocating 63% of its portfolio to these sectors [7] Earnings Performance - U.S. small-cap earnings are showing signs of a strong rebound, with the second quarter of 2025 marking the first positive earnings due to improving sales and margins [8] - Notably, 25% of Russell 2000 companies have reported at least two consecutive quarters of accelerating earnings, with expectations for this momentum to continue into 2026 [8]

Core Insights - The company is executing well on its priorities set in October, focusing on efficiency, planning progress, and opening new outlets [2] Market Conditions - The market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainty surrounding the budget and potential interest rate cuts from the Bank of England, leading to stretched affordability for many customers, especially first-time buyers [2] - There is a lack of urgency among customers as they await outcomes, making customer commitment a key focus for the sales teams [2] Pricing and Incentives - Incentives continue to play a significant role in sales, with underlying pricing remaining broadly flat, although pricing in southern regions shows some variation [3]

Core Insights - Corporate bonds are appealing for higher yield potential compared to government debt, but market uncertainty may deter fixed income investors [1] - Strong fundamentals support corporate bonds, enhancing their attractiveness despite ongoing risks [1] Interest Rate Impact - Additional interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve could boost corporate bond demand, allowing corporations to refinance existing loans and reduce debt service costs [2] - This refinancing could lead to stronger corporate balance sheets [2] Credit Environment - Vanguard indicates a positive credit environment for the upcoming year, citing stable corporate leverage, strong margins, and lower U.S. consumer debt levels compared to pre-COVID-19 [3] - The ratio of EBITDA to interest expense is improving for both investment-grade and riskier debt, indicating stronger corporate bond health [3] - Tighter credit spreads between investment-grade corporate debt and benchmark 10-year Treasuries reflect strong company credit measures [3][4] Investment Strategies - Vanguard recommends an overweight position in investment-grade corporate debt with a focus on issuer selection due to strong credit measures [4] - Risk-averse investors are advised to stick with investment-grade debt amid market uncertainties [4] Investment Options - The Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF Shares (VTC) offers broad exposure to investment-grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bonds, with a 30-day SEC yield of 4.78% and a low expense ratio of 0.03% [4] - Other tailored options include: 1. Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (VCSH) for short-term exposure [6] 2. Vanguard Interim-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) for intermediate-term exposure [6] 3. Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (VCLT) for long-term exposure [6]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was $193.9 million, a 15.1% increase year-over-year[11] - Net income for the third quarter of 2025 was $0.2 million, a 104.5% increase year-over-year[11] - Sales volume for the third quarter of 2025 was $12.2 billion, a 1.7% increase year-over-year[11] - Year-to-date revenue reached $511.2 million, up 12.1% year-over-year[12] - Year-to-date net loss was $(15.2) million, a 27.2% decrease year-over-year[12] Brokerage Operations - Real estate brokerage commissions revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was $162.2 million, up 14.2% year-over-year[13] - Brokerage sales volume for the third quarter of 2025 was $8.4 billion, a 2.0% decrease year-over-year[13] - Financing fees revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was $26.3 million, up 27.7% year-over-year[17] - Financing sales volume for the third quarter of 2025 was $2.9 billion, a 34.4% increase year-over-year[17] Market Trends - Private investors dominate the U S commercial real estate market, accounting for 57% of dollar volume[34]

分组1 - Corporate profits for S&P 500 companies are experiencing significant growth despite an increase in effective tariff rates from 2.4% to 17.9% [1] - Third-quarter earnings-per-share (EPS) growth for S&P 500 members is projected to rise by 10.7% year over year, marking four consecutive quarters of double-digit EPS growth [3] - The S&P 500 index has increased by 16% year-to-date and 36% since its low on April 8, reaching all-time highs and raising its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from approximately 18 to nearly 23 [4] 分组2 - The market's recovery since April has been characterized by increased investor confidence, as noted by Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who emphasizes the importance of being aware of market risks [5][6] - The S&P 500 is on track for a potential third consecutive year of returns exceeding 20%, with the Nasdaq showing even more impressive gains of over 18% in 2025 and more than 54% since the April low [7] - The upward movement in the market followed a 19% selloff from February to April, influenced by changes in tariff policies [9]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded as investors seek safety amid a decline in global stocks due to concerns over high valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold rose toward $4,000 an ounce after a nearly 2% drop in the previous session, influenced by a strengthening US dollar [1]. - Global stocks experienced their steepest drop in nearly a month, while Treasuries rallied [1]. - Gold is approximately 50% higher year-to-date, having reached a record price last month before a pullback [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - A group of Federal Reserve policymakers did not support an additional interest-rate cut in December, considering inflation and a softer labor market [2]. - Lower borrowing costs typically enhance gold's appeal compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that gold may consolidate within a trading range of $3,800 to $4,050 an ounce due to uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts and retail buying in China [4]. - Despite recent pullbacks, the factors driving gold's gains, such as central bank purchases and strong private investor demand, are expected to support price increases post-consolidation [5]. - The market sentiment has shifted from exuberance to reflection, with traders reassessing the pricing of future narratives including rate cuts and geopolitical hedging [6].

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) reached a 5.25-month high, increasing by +0.08% due to stronger-than-expected employment data and an ISM services index rise [1][3] - The US October ADP employment change rose by +42,000, surpassing expectations of +30,000, indicating a robust labor market [3] - The ISM services index increased by +2.4 to 52.4, exceeding expectations of 50.8, marking the fastest expansion in 8 months [4] Group 2 - The dollar received support from reports of moderate Senate Democrats considering an end to the government shutdown, alongside Fed Chair Powell's comments on interest rate cuts [2] - The ongoing US government shutdown poses risks to the economy, potentially leading to interest rate cuts if prolonged [3] - The markets are pricing in a 64% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [4] Group 3 - The EUR/USD fell to a 3-month low, down by -0.02%, primarily due to dollar strength and easing producer price pressures in the Eurozone [5] - The Eurozone's October S&P composite PMI was revised upward by +0.3 to 52.5, indicating the strongest expansion in nearly 2.5 years [6] - Central bank divergence is evident, with the ECB likely finished with its rate-cut cycle while the Fed is expected to implement further cuts by the end of 2026 [6]

Economic Overview - The current state of the labor market in the US is described as "squishy," indicating uncertainty and lack of clarity due to incomplete data [1][2] - Employment growth has been soft, with a noted slowdown in labor supply attributed to immigration enforcement [2] - The Federal Reserve is facing a curious balance in the labor market, with downside risks to employment influencing potential rate cuts [2] Inflation Insights - Inflation is currently closer to 3% than the targeted 2%, which may lead the Federal Reserve to be more comfortable with the existing inflation rate [3][4] - The Fed's inflation target has been discussed, with a comfort level existing as long as the first digit of the inflation rate is 2 [4] - The CPI is reported to be 50% above the Fed's stated target, indicating significant inflationary pressures [9] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is not operating without data, as it has access to various regional banks and analysts, but the absence of official data limits forecasting accuracy [6][7] - High-frequency, real-time data is increasingly being utilized by the Fed and private sector firms to complement official data [8] - The Fed's decision-making may be impacted by the prolonged absence of official data, which could complicate policy decisions [9] Global Context - Central banks globally may be opportunistic regarding inflation, allowing it to run higher to manage debt issues, although they prefer lower inflation rates [10][11] - The eurozone is cited as a counterexample, currently experiencing inflation around 2% [12] Policy Challenges - The Fed's struggle to bring inflation back to the 2% target is highlighted, with various factors influencing inflation rates, including tariffs and fluctuating gasoline prices [14] - The longer the Fed remains away from the 2% target, the greater the risk that public and financial markets may question the validity of the target [15] Governance and Control - There is a healthy exchange of views within the Fed, with dissent being a normal feature of decision-making rather than a sign of losing control [16][18] - The complexity of the current economic environment necessitates a range of views, which can lead to dissenting opinions within the committee [17][18]