Group 1 - Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman is controversial due to his past performance during the financial crisis, which raises questions about his judgment and suitability for the role [1][5][14] - Warsh is perceived as a traditional Republican aligned with Wall Street, contrasting with President Trump's populist approach, leading to skepticism about his fit within the current administration [3][5][7] - The nomination process may face delays due to ongoing investigations into the Fed and Jerome Powell, indicating a potentially contentious confirmation [19][20] Group 2 - Warsh's economic views emphasize inflation control over employment, which could lead to restrictive monetary policies that may not align with the current administration's goals [11][14][22] - The labor market is showing signs of fragility, with slow wage growth and minimal increases in aggregate hours, suggesting a challenging economic environment ahead [22][23][24] - There is uncertainty regarding how Warsh's policies will impact nominal GDP growth, with projections indicating a potential growth rate of around 4% or lower [22][23]

Normally, in any month that the FOMC meets, the Committee’s decision on what, if any, changes they make to monetary policy is the focal point of the markets. Investors, Analysts and Fed Watchers, including myself, parse the Fed’s policy statement and the ensuing pressMichael Gray has devoted his career to following the capital markets and managing fixed income assets. He founded Gray Capital Management LLC and before that was Head of Taxable Fixed Income at Fidelity Investments. Michael has an MBA in Financ ...

Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand in December is expected to show a growth of 0.2 percent, consistent with the previous month [2] - The Chicago PMI for January is anticipated to be 43.8, slightly up from December's 43.5 [3] - The Baker Hughes Rig Count for North America was 775 in the prior week, with the U.S. rig count at 544 [3] - The Agriculture Department's Farm Prices for December showed an increase of 3.8 percent in the prior month [3] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices finished broadly down, with the Dow up 55.96 points (0.1 percent) at 49,071.56, while the S&P 500 closed down 9.02 points (0.1 percent) at 6,969.01, and the Nasdaq down 172.33 points (0.7 percent) at 23,685.12 [2][7] - Asian stocks ended mostly lower, with China's Shanghai Composite index falling 0.96 percent to 4,117.95 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index tumbling 2.08 percent to 27,387.11 [5] - The Australian benchmark S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.65 percent to 8,869.10, marking a third consecutive session of losses [6] Federal Reserve Commentary - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to discuss U.S. monetary policy at a luncheon [4] - Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on monetary policy and regulation at an assembly for bank directors [4]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell, amid a turbulent period for the Fed, including a criminal probe into Powell and scrutiny over the Fed's independence [1][5]. Group 1: Nomination and Implications - Kevin Warsh is expected to be a strong candidate for the Fed Chair position, with Trump expressing confidence in his capabilities, suggesting he could be one of the best Fed Chairmen [2]. - If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would have significant influence over U.S. economic policy, particularly regarding interest rate decisions and inflation control [2]. Group 2: Current Federal Reserve Context - The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in determining borrowing costs and managing inflation, directly affecting Americans' affordability [5]. - Tensions between Trump and Powell have escalated, particularly over interest rate decisions, with Trump advocating for rate cuts to potentially save the nation "hundreds of billions of dollars" [5]. Group 3: Background of Key Figures - Jerome Powell, who has been viewed as a crisis-tested Fed Chair, has a background in law and investment banking, joining the Fed's Board of Governors in 2012 and becoming Chair in 2017 [7]. - Kevin Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley banker, has been a vocal critic of the current Fed leadership and was the youngest person to serve on the Fed board in 2006 [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential appointment of Kevin Warsh to a significant position in the financial world, likely related to the Federal Reserve, highlighting his past consideration for the role and his extensive experience in monetary policy [2][3]. Group 1: Background and Experience - Kevin Warsh is a Stanford and Harvard Law graduate who began his career at Morgan Stanley before serving as an economic adviser in the White House and later being appointed to the Federal Reserve [3]. - He served on the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2011, resigning due to his objections to excessive quantitative easing (QE) [3]. Group 2: Market Perception and Criticism - Warsh is recognized for his monetary policy experience and familiarity with Wall Street, which could be favorable for market reactions [4]. - Despite his strengths, he is known as a harsh critic of the Fed and a hawk, which has led to mixed reactions from the markets [4]. Group 3: Proposed Changes and Focus - Warsh advocates for significant changes at the Fed, emphasizing a focus on inflation and a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet [5][6]. - He has criticized the Fed for overreach in its responsibilities and has suggested that the regulation of banks should be handled by other entities [6].

Bitcoin’s value relative to gold has slipped close to levels last seen nearly a decade ago, reigniting debate over the cryptocurrency’s long-term performance as a store of value. Key Takeaways: Bitcoin’s value against gold has fallen near 2017 levels, reviving doubts about its role as a long-term store of value. Peter Schiff says gold and silver have outperformed Bitcoin as investors seek safety. Analysts note shifting investor behavior as demand grows for assets outside government control. Econo ...

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump's nomination to head the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to reduce market uncertainty and provide investors with insights into the future direction of monetary policy after Jerome Powell's term concludes in May [1] Group 1 - The nomination is seen as a pivotal moment for the markets, potentially influencing investor sentiment and decision-making [1] - Investors are likely to interpret the nomination as a signal regarding the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates and economic policy moving forward [1]

Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be routine on paper — but markets may be bracing for something far less ordinary. Any fireworks are unlikely to come from monetary policy, but Chair Jerome Powell's press conference could turn tense as politics, subpoenas and presidential pressure overshadow an otherwise quiet meeting. According to CME FedWatch data, there's a 98% probability the Federal Open Market Committee keeps the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Looking ahead, expe ...

Core Viewpoint - Orchid Island Capital, Inc. reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, driven by favorable market conditions in the Agency RMBS sector, including stable interest rates and two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6][10]. Fourth Quarter 2025 Results - The company generated a net income of $103.4 million, or $0.62 per common share, compared to $5.6 million for the same period in 2024 [11]. - Total dividends declared and paid for the fourth quarter were $0.36 per common share, contributing to a total return of 7.78% [7][12]. - The average Agency RMBS portfolio increased from $7.7 billion in Q3 2025 to $9.5 billion in Q4 2025, with interest income rising by approximately $23.8 million [11]. Full-Year 2025 Results - For the year ended December 31, 2025, net income was $159.3 million, or $1.24 per common share, up from $37.7 million in 2024 [13]. - The company declared total dividends of $1.44 per common share for the year, resulting in a total return of 11.00% [14]. - Interest income for the year was approximately $414.0 million, with a yield on the average Agency RMBS of 5.51% [13]. Other Financial Highlights - Orchid's book value per common share was $7.54 as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a decrease of $0.55 per share for the year [30]. - The company maintained a strong liquidity position of $791.8 million, representing 58% of stockholder's equity [7]. - Shareholders' equity more than doubled in 2025, increasing by 105% [10]. Market Conditions and Management Commentary - The fourth quarter was characterized by a six-week government shutdown, which limited economic data availability, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [6]. - The Fed's two interest rate cuts during the quarter were beneficial for levered Agency RMBS investors, lowering funding costs [9]. - The company noted that while marginal returns in the Agency RMBS sector are less attractive than in previous years, other fixed income sectors have also performed well [9]. Portfolio and Financing - As of December 31, 2025, the company's total mortgage assets were valued at $10.6 billion, with fixed-rate RMBS comprising 99.9% of the portfolio [17]. - The adjusted leverage ratio was 7.4:1, with outstanding repurchase obligations of approximately $10.1 billion [20]. - The company has entered into various hedging strategies to manage interest rate risks associated with its funding [24].

The end goal of central banking is they will monetize everything. They'll print money to buy stocks. They'll print money to buy bonds. They'll print money to buy options. They'll print money to buy gold.They'll print money to buy food. They'll print money to buy tanks. Everything will be monetized eventually. ...