Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell, amid a turbulent period for the Fed, including a criminal probe into Powell and scrutiny over the Fed's independence [1][5]. Group 1: Nomination and Implications - Kevin Warsh is expected to be a strong candidate for the Fed Chair position, with Trump expressing confidence in his capabilities, suggesting he could be one of the best Fed Chairmen [2]. - If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would have significant influence over U.S. economic policy, particularly regarding interest rate decisions and inflation control [2]. Group 2: Current Federal Reserve Context - The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in determining borrowing costs and managing inflation, directly affecting Americans' affordability [5]. - Tensions between Trump and Powell have escalated, particularly over interest rate decisions, with Trump advocating for rate cuts to potentially save the nation "hundreds of billions of dollars" [5]. Group 3: Background of Key Figures - Jerome Powell, who has been viewed as a crisis-tested Fed Chair, has a background in law and investment banking, joining the Fed's Board of Governors in 2012 and becoming Chair in 2017 [7]. - Kevin Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley banker, has been a vocal critic of the current Fed leadership and was the youngest person to serve on the Fed board in 2006 [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential appointment of Kevin Warsh to a significant position in the financial world, likely related to the Federal Reserve, highlighting his past consideration for the role and his extensive experience in monetary policy [2][3]. Group 1: Background and Experience - Kevin Warsh is a Stanford and Harvard Law graduate who began his career at Morgan Stanley before serving as an economic adviser in the White House and later being appointed to the Federal Reserve [3]. - He served on the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2011, resigning due to his objections to excessive quantitative easing (QE) [3]. Group 2: Market Perception and Criticism - Warsh is recognized for his monetary policy experience and familiarity with Wall Street, which could be favorable for market reactions [4]. - Despite his strengths, he is known as a harsh critic of the Fed and a hawk, which has led to mixed reactions from the markets [4]. Group 3: Proposed Changes and Focus - Warsh advocates for significant changes at the Fed, emphasizing a focus on inflation and a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet [5][6]. - He has criticized the Fed for overreach in its responsibilities and has suggested that the regulation of banks should be handled by other entities [6].

Bitcoin’s value relative to gold has slipped close to levels last seen nearly a decade ago, reigniting debate over the cryptocurrency’s long-term performance as a store of value. Key Takeaways: Bitcoin’s value against gold has fallen near 2017 levels, reviving doubts about its role as a long-term store of value. Peter Schiff says gold and silver have outperformed Bitcoin as investors seek safety. Analysts note shifting investor behavior as demand grows for assets outside government control. Econo ...

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump's nomination to head the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to reduce market uncertainty and provide investors with insights into the future direction of monetary policy after Jerome Powell's term concludes in May [1] Group 1 - The nomination is seen as a pivotal moment for the markets, potentially influencing investor sentiment and decision-making [1] - Investors are likely to interpret the nomination as a signal regarding the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates and economic policy moving forward [1]

Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be routine on paper — but markets may be bracing for something far less ordinary. Any fireworks are unlikely to come from monetary policy, but Chair Jerome Powell's press conference could turn tense as politics, subpoenas and presidential pressure overshadow an otherwise quiet meeting. According to CME FedWatch data, there's a 98% probability the Federal Open Market Committee keeps the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Looking ahead, expe ...

Core Viewpoint - Orchid Island Capital, Inc. reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, driven by favorable market conditions in the Agency RMBS sector, including stable interest rates and two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6][10]. Fourth Quarter 2025 Results - The company generated a net income of $103.4 million, or $0.62 per common share, compared to $5.6 million for the same period in 2024 [11]. - Total dividends declared and paid for the fourth quarter were $0.36 per common share, contributing to a total return of 7.78% [7][12]. - The average Agency RMBS portfolio increased from $7.7 billion in Q3 2025 to $9.5 billion in Q4 2025, with interest income rising by approximately $23.8 million [11]. Full-Year 2025 Results - For the year ended December 31, 2025, net income was $159.3 million, or $1.24 per common share, up from $37.7 million in 2024 [13]. - The company declared total dividends of $1.44 per common share for the year, resulting in a total return of 11.00% [14]. - Interest income for the year was approximately $414.0 million, with a yield on the average Agency RMBS of 5.51% [13]. Other Financial Highlights - Orchid's book value per common share was $7.54 as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a decrease of $0.55 per share for the year [30]. - The company maintained a strong liquidity position of $791.8 million, representing 58% of stockholder's equity [7]. - Shareholders' equity more than doubled in 2025, increasing by 105% [10]. Market Conditions and Management Commentary - The fourth quarter was characterized by a six-week government shutdown, which limited economic data availability, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [6]. - The Fed's two interest rate cuts during the quarter were beneficial for levered Agency RMBS investors, lowering funding costs [9]. - The company noted that while marginal returns in the Agency RMBS sector are less attractive than in previous years, other fixed income sectors have also performed well [9]. Portfolio and Financing - As of December 31, 2025, the company's total mortgage assets were valued at $10.6 billion, with fixed-rate RMBS comprising 99.9% of the portfolio [17]. - The adjusted leverage ratio was 7.4:1, with outstanding repurchase obligations of approximately $10.1 billion [20]. - The company has entered into various hedging strategies to manage interest rate risks associated with its funding [24].

The end goal of central banking is they will monetize everything. They'll print money to buy stocks. They'll print money to buy bonds. They'll print money to buy options. They'll print money to buy gold.They'll print money to buy food. They'll print money to buy tanks. Everything will be monetized eventually. ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 5% from $19.25 in the prior quarter to $20.21 as of December 31, 2025 [19] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) rose marginally to $0.74, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [7][20] - Economic return for Q4 was 8.6%, bringing the full-year economic return to 20.2% [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio ended 2025 at $93 billion in market value, an increase of nearly $6 billion quarter-over-quarter and $22 billion year-over-year [8] - The residential credit portfolio reached $8 billion in market value, up $1.1 billion quarter-over-quarter, representing approximately 19% of the firm's capital [10] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio ended the fourth quarter at $3.8 billion in market value, a nearly $280 million increase quarter-over-quarter and a 15% increase year-over-year [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fixed income markets exhibited strong performance, contributing to the highest total return in the U.S. aggregate bond index since 2020 [5] - The yield curve steepened during the quarter as short-term yields fell while long-term yields rose modestly [5] - Swap spreads continued to widen, supported by a shift from Quantitative Tightening to balance sheet expansion by the Fed [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase its allocation to residential credit and MSR, targeting a long-term weighting of 50% agency, 30% residential credit, and 20% MSR [46][47] - The diversified housing finance model is expected to continue performing well for shareholders, with a focus on opportunistic investments in the current coupon MSR market [18] - The company remains well-positioned to benefit from growth in the non-QM market and the broader non-agency market [13][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains solid, with the labor market showing signs of softness but limited layoffs [4] - The company anticipates continued strong results from its investment strategies in 2026, supported by favorable market conditions [16][18] - Risks include global fiscal challenges and potential changes in housing policy that could impact the agency markets [39][40] Other Important Information - The company raised $560 million of common equity through its ATM in Q4, bringing total equity raised in 2025 to $2.9 billion [8] - The economic leverage ratio remained low at 5.6x, down from the previous quarter [22] - Total assets available for financing reached approximately $9.4 billion, providing significant liquidity and flexibility [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on mark-to-market book values - The book value was up 4%, inclusive of the dividend accrual, with a slight increase noted [25] Question: Portfolio returns and comfort level with the dividend in 2026 - The company expects mid-teens returns and feels confident about the durability of the swaps market as a hedge [26] Question: Insights on the MSR portfolio and current coupon MSR - The company is now active in the MSR exchange platforms and is well-positioned to manage recapture effectively [27][29] Question: Impact of potential G-fee cuts on prepayment environment - A G-fee cut on purchase loans is seen as appropriate, but broad cuts could negatively impact the MBS market [31] Question: Factors that could change the current low-risk environment - Risks include global fiscal issues and asset market euphoria, which could lead to corrections [39] Question: Attractiveness of buying lower-coupon MBS - The valuation on low-coupon MBS is tight, and better ways to manage risk are available [41] Question: Likelihood of GSE portfolio caps being increased - The current capacity is far from hitting caps, and future increases remain uncertain [48]

An Indian government panel has proposed a sharp reduction in the share of food prices used to determine retail inflation, a move that could help the central bank conduct monetary policy more effectively https://t.co/8R1UBanKQU ...

Meridian Funds, managed by ArrowMark Partners, released its “Meridian Contrarian Fund” fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the same can be downloaded here. U.S. equity markets experienced a quarter supported by optimism around potential monetary easing and caution related to economic growth and valuations. Early gains were driven by strong AI-related earnings and the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut in October, which improved expectations for financial conditions. However, market sentiment cooled l ...