Inflation & Pricing - Gradual pass-through of tariff costs onto CPI inflation and consumer prices, with core goods prices rising at a 14% clip annually [2] - Services less energy are showing disinflation, rising at a 3% pace, driven by shelter cost disinflation, but this may be overstated [3][4] - Alleviating tariff cost pressures is a key lever to reduce pressures on businesses and potentially lower prices for consumers [9] - Since 2019, inflation has accumulated to approximately 25% [10] Economic Outlook & Growth - The US economy is supported by three "Apillars" of growth: affluent consumers, AI investment, and asset price appreciation (stock market gains) [11] - These pillars create a virtuous cycle but also represent a narrow and fragile foundation, with risks of an AI-related bubble and stock market correction [12][13][14] - Expects US growth of 19% next year, roughly on par with this year, supported by this narrow foundation [14] - Consumer spending is expected to grow at a moderate 15% pace [15] - Greater investment in AI-connected areas is anticipated [16] Economic Polarization - Expects greater polarization within and between economies, with the well-offs and AI-focused businesses driving most of the spending and investment [16][17]

The challenge, especially within my supply chain, is now how do you have enough productivity initiatives to offset the the increased cost of of all the products for the industry as a whole. You have more than 80% dependence on China as a sourcing market for some of the bigger players. That exposure is less and they have more nimble, more flexible supply chains to navigate this disruption For the medium sized and smaller players, this has been very, very disruptive.Can you just move your supply chain out of ...

Economic Indicators - The British pound weakened against major currencies as U.K. inflation slowed more than expected in November, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 3.2% year-on-year, down from 3.6% in October [1] - On a monthly basis, the CPI dropped 0.2%, contrasting with a 0.4% rise in October, while core inflation softened to 3.2% from 3.4% [2] - Input price inflation accelerated to 1.1% year-on-year in November, up from a revised 0.8% in October, while output price growth slowed to 3.4% from 3.6% [3] Market Reactions - Markets are anticipating a potential rate drop from the Bank of England (BoE) due to weakening U.K. GDP, declining inflation, and improving labor market conditions [4] - European stocks traded lower following a decline in the S&P 500, influenced by economic concerns and tariff worries related to U.S. countermeasures against the EU [5] Currency Performance - The pound fell to a one-week low of 1.3312 against the U.S. dollar and a five-day low of 1.0625 against the Swiss franc, with potential support levels identified at 1.31 and 1.05 respectively [6] - Against the yen and euro, the pound edged down to 207.06 and 0.8797, with support levels near 205.00 and 0.88 respectively [7]

Labor Market Analysis - Initial market reaction to slightly higher than expected unemployment rate was quickly reassessed [1] - Labor force participation rate increase mitigates concerns about the unemployment rate [2] - November payroll number of 64,000 was close to expectations, and another payroll report before the January meeting will further diminish the importance of these figures [2] Consumer Spending and Earnings - Retail sales control group number was strong, indicating healthy consumer spending [3] - Average hourly earnings, while slightly weaker month-over-month, still show a 35% year-over-year increase, suggesting continued wage growth [3] - Real incomes and the wealth effect are supporting consumption, driving market movement [4] Monetary Policy and Bond Market - Potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, possibly starting in March, combined with fiscal stimulus, could lead to a sell-off at the long end of the yield curve [4] - Bond market signals that while the Fed controls the short end, the long end reacts to better growth, sticky inflation, and high capital demand, pushing up the term premium [5] - Average hourly earnings growth of 35% year-over-year is the slowest pace since May 2021, influencing CPI expectations [6] Inflation and Tariffs - Inflation data, particularly CPI, is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy pivot [6][7] - Tariff-related components are seen as drivers of underlying inflation stickiness, with the key question being whether this is a one-off event or an ongoing inflationary process [8] - There is a consensus that tariff inflation should be a one-off event, with wages being a more critical factor in the process of inflation [9] - Wage growth, while still present, is also showing signs of slowing down [9]

Core Viewpoint - RH, an upscale American furniture maker, has cut its 2025 guidance due to the ongoing impact of tariffs on the industry, despite reporting a 9% increase in revenues to $884 million for the third quarter [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase of 9% to $884 million, which was better than expected [1]. - The adjusted operating margin was 11.6%, falling short of the 12.5% midpoint guidance due to higher-than-expected tariff expenses [1][2]. Revised Outlook - RH has revised its 2025 revenue growth outlook to 9% to 9.2%, down from a previous forecast of 9% to 11% [2]. - The adjusted operating margin forecast has been lowered to 11.6% to 11.9%, down from 12% to 13% [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin is now expected to be 17.6% to 18%, reduced from 19% to 20% [2]. Tariff Impact - The company indicated that the outlook includes a negative impact of approximately 210 basis points on operating margin due to start-up costs for international expansion and a 90 basis point impact from tariffs, net of mitigation [3]. Market Reaction - Following the better-than-expected revenue results, RH shares rose by 10.64% in early trading, reaching $168.64 [4]. - However, RH shares have declined by about 60% over the past year, significantly affected by U.S. trade policies [4]. Analyst Ratings - The Telsey Group maintained a market perform rating but reduced its target price from $220 to $185, citing concerns over incremental tariffs and costs associated with new international gallery openings [5][6]. - TD Cowen also lowered its target price from $265 to $200 while maintaining a buy rating [6]. Challenges - RH faces challenges related to delivering backorders purchased at pre-tariff prices, which are now subject to tariffs, and higher expenses linked to the opening of RH Paris [6][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the smartphone market trends and shipment volumes, highlighting the performance of major brands in the U.S. market for Q3 2025 and the impact of various economic factors on these trends [4][8][11]. Market Highlights - Despite ongoing tariff issues, U.S. smartphone shipments saw a slight year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, attributed to a rise in imports from Vietnam and India, compensating for the decline in imports from China [8][11]. - Apple experienced a decline in market share both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, yet maintained growth in annual shipments due to strong performance from the iPhone 16e. The iPhone 17 series shipments remained stable but faced challenges from strong demand [8][11]. - Samsung's market share saw a minor increase of 1 basis point year-on-year but a decrease of 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to strong growth from Google [8][11]. - Motorola's performance weakened in Q3 due to soft prepaid demand influenced by macroeconomic and political factors, leading to a decline in its market share [8][11]. - HMD exited the U.S. market, prompting a cessation of tracking for this brand by the research firm [8][11]. Brand Performance - In Q2 2024, Apple held a 52% market share, which increased to 53% in Q3 2024, but dropped to 50% by Q3 2025. Samsung's share fluctuated, reaching 24% in Q3 2024 and stabilizing at 24% in Q3 2025. Lenovo's share remained consistent at 12% during the same period [9][15]. - The overall smartphone shipment volume in Q1 2025 increased by 9% year-on-year, driven by preemptive stocking to avoid potential tariff impacts, particularly in March [15][21]. - Motorola achieved its highest market share of 11% in Q1 2025, attributed to the early launch of its G series and improved positioning in the prepaid market [15][21]. Economic Impact - The article notes that the U.S. smartphone market faced a 9% year-on-year decline in Q4 2024, influenced by low upgrade rates and extended upgrade cycles. Apple and Samsung both experienced declines in shipments during this period [18][21]. - In Q3 2024, the U.S. smartphone market saw a 6% year-on-year decline, primarily due to weak demand in both prepaid and postpaid channels [21].

Inflation & Tariffs - Tariff price increases are expected to fully pass through, with inflation from goods peaking around the first quarter of next year [2][3] - Assuming no new tariff announcements, inflation from goods should decrease in the back half of next year [3] - The impact of individual tariffs can take quite a while to fully materialize due to shipping and other factors [2] - The expected peak inflation increase from tariffs is estimated to be a couple of tenths of a percentage point or less [3] - The full effect of announced tariffs is estimated to take about nine months [3] Monetary Policy & Leadership - The speaker states that discussions about a new Fed chairman do not hinder their current job or change their thinking [4]

The Trump administration will impose a 10% tariff on imports from Nicaragua beginning in 2027, after finding that alleged human rights abuses in the Central American country “restrict US commerce.” https://t.co/y0qim1E1w1 ...

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