Market Overview & Trends - Home Depot's sales momentum is lacking due to less accommodative interest rates, impacting the home improvement channel [2][3] - Summer-like weather helped Home Depot's sales growth slightly during the fiscal quarter [4] - Delays in large renovations are observed, with expectations of lower rates as a trigger for project commencement [9] - A 5% handle on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate could unlock significant remodeling demand [11] Company Performance & Strategy - Home Depot is managing wealth and is a well-run company in a solid sector, but lacks sales momentum [2] - Home Depot benefits from pent-up demand in the US housing market, which is expected to resurge as rates move lower [7] - Home Depot is making better and bigger moves in the complex pro business [15] Investment Recommendation & Valuation - Oppenheimer views Lowe's as a better investment play due to more operational slack and a wider valuation gap compared to Home Depot [13][15] - Lowe's operations are now very close to Home Depot's, but there's still a little more slack there [14] - Despite improvements at Lowe's, the valuation gap between Lowe's and Home Depot has remained very wide, making Lowe's cheap [15] Interest Rate Impact - Lower mortgage rates are expected to re-accelerate sales at Home Depot [7] - A move towards a 5% handle on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is anticipated to unlock remodeling demand [11] - Lower HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit) rates, influenced by Fed moves, could fuel remodeling demand by allowing homeowners to tap into historic equity [12]

⚡️ UPDATE: Polymarket users predict a 71% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in September. https://t.co/3nrBXc113Q ...

🚨 LATEST: Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times before year-end, as US job market weakens. https://t.co/uyYLk2rCej ...

Interest Rate Comparison - Smaller banks' high-yield savings accounts offer significantly higher interest rates compared to the near-zero rates of big-name banks [1] - This difference can result in hundreds more dollars in savings for consumers [1]

Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) Market Analysis - US e-commerce is a \$1 trillion business, with BNPL currently pushing \$70-80 billion, representing a small fraction of the overall US retail market, which is about \$7-8 trillion [5] - BNPL is misunderstood to be steered towards people without access to banking, but it's skewed younger, particularly the 18-34 cohort, who may not trust credit cards or banks [5][6][7] - BNPL's counter-cyclical potential lies in helping e-commerce retailers convert sales that regular credit/debit cards might not, potentially thriving in a weaker economy [8][9][10] - BNPL growth primarily impacts banks, as they are the current credit card operators, while Visa and Mastercard benefit from increased transaction volume due to installment payments [11][12][13] Company Specific Analysis - Affirm is considered a buy due to its unlimited TAM (Total Addressable Market) and strong execution, differentiating itself from Klarna by offering a wider range of products, including interest-bearing loans [13][14][15][16] - PayPal is also a buy, with BNPL being a key part of its new branded checkout button, expecting BNPL to grow in the 40s over the next 2-3 years, accelerating branded checkout button growth, and gaining market share in Europe [17][18][19] - Circle is rated as underperform due to flat USDC distribution at \$68 billion since April, increasing distribution costs, and potential revenue shortfall [20][21][22][23] Housing Market Analysis - Home builder sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since 2022 due to persistently high mortgage rates constricting the market [3][41] - Mortgage rates need to be closer to 6% than 7% to loosen up the market, but consistency in rates is lacking, making borrowers cautious [43][44] - The Fed cutting rates would signal to banks to cut construction lending rates, boosting production, but the Fed's primary focus is on inflation and the labor market, not directly on housing [46][47][48] - Tariffs have been priced in, with about 60% of builders reporting increased goods costs, but the impact hasn't been as significant as initially anticipated due to slowed construction pace [52][53][54][55]

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 U.S. inflation remains below the Fed’s 2% target.Time to cut rates! 🚀 https://t.co/7D44ctOid9 ...

What's your take on why long-term interest rates haven't gone lower. >> I think there's probably two things here that stick out to me. One is well, inflation still seems like it's there, right.We haven't gotten things back to 2%. And so there's just a risk of the Fed being caught off sides here if the Fed starts to cut more aggressively at a time when inflation might pick up. You can say, well, this time inflation's transitory.But we're dealing with potentially big macro adjustments. They might be costly. A ...

New Zealand’s central bank is expected to cut interest rates this week, resuming its easing cycle after a pause in July as the economy shows signs of stalling https://t.co/45p37EPuOX ...

US Treasuries slipped for a third day as traders shift focus to a highly anticipated speech this week from Jerome Powell for signals on where the Fed will take interest rates https://t.co/BS4eAq1xvS ...

🇺🇸 $3 TRILLION GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS THE FED TO CUT RATES THREE TIMES IN NEXT 4 MONTHS.BULLISH FOR THE MARKETS 🚀 https://t.co/INdHX6K0F6 ...