2y ago I invested my dad's money for him and got him a returnhe asked me for advice and I said to put in US savings account as the USD is strong vs TRYhe said "no, turkish bank is giving 50% APY, im gonna do that"the inflation was 70%.and now I send him money monthly lolBarchart (@Barchart):BREAKING 🚨: TurkeyTurkish Lira falls to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar 📉 https://t.co/ODWf5fC9Ch ...

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about the most recent CPI report. We're going to discuss how it has dropped to 2.7% and expectations that we might have based on further rate cuts and of course how it affects markets like Bitcoin.If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse. com. Link is in the description below.Again, ...

nonsenseeveryone should learn how to trade, it is a skill that is necessary to beat current inflation & achieve wealth over generationseven for those with minimal discretionary income it is vitally important to have exposure to assets and compound returns over generationslearning how to budget and save money goes hand in hand with learning how to invest and at minimum getting exposure to the indices if not investing in companies impacting society at a global scalefactorydoge (@factorydoge69):i think most pe ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury bond is currently viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to its high yield compared to shorter-duration bonds, with expectations of falling long-term yields as inflation fears ease [2][3]. Investment Opportunity - Elliott Dornbusch, CIO at CV Advisors, highlights the 30-year Treasury bond's yield of 4.8%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.14% [2]. - The 30-year bond is favored for its high yield despite its long duration, which is typically seen as a disadvantage [3][4]. Market Expectations - Dornbusch anticipates that long-term yields will decline, leading to an increase in bond prices, driven by overstated long-term inflation risks and potential shifts in investor behavior during market downturns [5][6]. - The expectation is that if a bear market occurs, investors will flock to long-term Treasurys, increasing their value and decreasing yields, thus providing a profitable exit for current holders [6]. Potential Returns - The potential return on the 30-year Treasury bond over the next four years could resemble a 10% return when considering both coupon payments and price appreciation, making it an attractive option for patient investors [7].

I spoke with @jvisserlabs this week to break down the latest CPI data and what it means for the Fed’s next move.We discussed artificial intelligence, including how it’s changing the way people work, learn, and create an edge in their careers.We also cover bitcoin, macro positioning, and specific companies and organizations investors should be paying attention to right now.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/S3FpWr7gvwSpotify: https://t.co/HU1Jn3FDreApple: https://t.co/pmaxKtPYvYTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro0:45 – CPI tak ...

Core Insights - Rising private healthcare costs are prompting millionaires to reconsider their living locations, as highlighted by Henley & Partners [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflation is a significant concern, with fears that it could spiral out of the Federal Reserve's control by 2026 [2][5] - Recent data indicates that while headline inflation was cooler than expected in November, it remains above the Fed's 2% target [3] Stock Market Observations - The stock market is perceived to be in a bubble, with the "Dr. X's Bubble Detector" indicating all-time high equity prices [3][5] Money Supply Dynamics - The M2 money supply has increased by $3.5 trillion over the past five years, which is viewed as a critical metric for inflation outlook [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including rate cuts and the cessation of quantitative tightening, are expected to loosen financial conditions, potentially accelerating price growth [6] Factors Contributing to Inflation - Several developments are identified that could exacerbate inflation in the coming year: 1. Fed rate cuts that loosen financial conditions [6] 2. The end of quantitative tightening, which previously aimed to control inflation [6] 3. Easing of lending rules, allowing banks to increase the money supply [7] 4. Increased issuance of T-bills by the US Treasury to fund government deficits, contributing to inflationary pressures [7]

Core Insights - The proposed $2,000 direct payment aims to provide immediate financial relief to American families, particularly those living paycheck to paycheck, by helping with expenses like credit card debt and savings [1][5][6] Funding Mechanism - Unlike previous COVID stimulus payments that were deficit-financed, this proposal would be funded through import duties collected from goods entering the U.S., effectively turning trade policy into financial relief for families [2][3][6] Economic Context - The timing of this proposal is notable as it comes when the economy is stronger compared to the pandemic period, with unemployment still relatively low despite rising [5][6] Short-Term Benefits - The immediate benefits of the $2,000 payment could lead to increased consumer spending, helping families manage debts and stimulating retail sectors [7][10] Economic Concerns - Economists question the necessity of such a stimulus, especially given that tariffs raise prices, which could negate the benefits of the payment [8][9] - The potential for inflationary pressure is significant, as tariffs increase consumer prices, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to manage inflation [12][13] Flaws in the Proposal - **Flaw 1**: Tariff-driven price increases could consume the stimulus, leading to a net negative for families who face higher costs despite receiving the payment [9][10][11] - **Flaw 2**: The combination of tariffs and stimulus could create a toxic economic environment, exacerbating inflation and complicating monetary policy [14] - **Flaw 3**: Tariffs may disrupt supply chains and slow economic growth, leading to reduced job creation and lower corporate earnings, ultimately undermining the benefits of the stimulus [15][16][17][18]

Economic Outlook - Navellier predicts U.S. GDP growth will exceed 5% in 2026, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts and increased investments in domestic production [2][24] - The Federal Reserve has reduced the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter percentage point at each of the past three meetings to support the jobs market [1][12] AI Investment Impact - AI spending is projected to significantly contribute to economic growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating hyperscalers will spend $533 billion in 2026, a 34% increase from 2025 [15] - Bank of America forecasts spending on AI data centers to rise from $243 billion in 2025 to $415 billion in 2026, indicating a robust investment trend [16] Trade and Manufacturing - The U.S. trade deficit improved to -$52.8 billion in September, its lowest level since early 2020, which is expected to provide a GDP tailwind as more production is brought back to the U.S. [11][9] - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) includes incentives for capital spending, encouraging domestic manufacturing and investment [7][8] Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation concerns appear exaggerated, with November CPI inflation at 2.7%, down from 3% in September, suggesting a more favorable environment for economic growth [19][20] - Bank of America projects core PCE inflation for 2026 to be around 3.1% in Q1, which may lead to further interest rate cuts if unemployment remains high [21][22][23] Overall Economic Growth Drivers - Economic growth is expected to be supported by onshoring and data center growth, with lower interest rates likely stimulating interest rate-sensitive sectors such as automotive and housing [24]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) report indicated that inflation rose less than expected, with a 0.2% increase over the two months from September to November and a year-over-year increase of 2.7% [8] - Core inflation, averaged over the past three months and annualized, is reported at 1.6%, reflecting the effectiveness of the Trump administration's policies to enhance aggregate supply and lower prices [4][7] - The CPI report was praised as "astonishingly good," with comparisons drawn to previous economic conditions during Trump's first term, where growth and inflation were similarly favorable [7] Economic Performance - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that core prices, excluding volatile items like gasoline and food, rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, aligning with economists' expectations [9] - Despite the positive CPI report, consumers are still experiencing price increases, particularly in food, which rose by 2.6% compared to the previous year, along with higher costs in energy, transportation, and housing [10] Job Market - The U.S. added 64,000 jobs in November following a loss of 105,000 jobs in October, indicating a recovery in the job market [5]

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - CPI数据低于预期，但美联储更关注劳动力市场，通胀可能在明年超过3%，但总体风险在劳动力方面[1] - 汽油价格处于四年低位，工资下降，通胀互换处于年度低点，市场预期美联储明年可能不会降息[1] - AI是潜在的通货紧缩力量，可能限制工资增长，并对劳动力市场产生长期影响[1][2] - 市场出现轮动，资金从成长股转向价值股，从小盘股转向大盘股，这种轮动可能预示着PMI指数上升[2] - 预计被市场遗忘的股票将跑赢拥挤的领头羊，AI基础设施股赚钱难度加大，视觉语言模型（VLM）将成为关注点[2] - 数据中心建设、AI发展和同步升级周期将推动PMI指数上升，但如果大型科技公司表现不佳，可能导致市场出现20%的回调风险[2] Investment Opportunities & Risks - 看好Tesla，认为它将是Mag 7中表现最好的股票，同时Nvidia和Apple也将表现出色，不看好超大规模企业和基于代码构建的公司[2] - Oracle面临风险，因其资产负债表使用方式和收入不足以抵消风险，但相信其收入将在明年加速增长[3] - 传统金融公司Cisco将受益于AI驱动的流量和网络安全需求增长，稳定币交易量增加也将利好Bitcoin[46][47][64] - 银行是AI交易的受益者，因为它们有能力利用AI取代知识型员工，制药公司也在向AI药物发现转型[49][51] - 比特币需要连续三天收于92,000美元上方才能改变下行趋势，AI吸走了本应流入加密货币的资金，但这种情况将在今年开始改变[57][63] AI & Technological Disruption - AI代理正在攻击知识型员工，个人需要成为AI原生，利用AI代理，而不是被AI代理取代[5][6] - 法律公司采用AI的动机可能是为了显得具有AI能力，但实际使用率可能不高，因为效率提高可能会减少按小时计费的收入[4] - 投资者在公开市场中缺乏参与AI趋势的途径，与私人市场相比，公开市场中可投资的AI公司数量不足[39][41] - AI的真正价值在于视觉语言模型（VLM），而不是传统的人工智能，Tesla是一家AI公司，因为它需要计算机视觉来实现机器人出租车和人形机器人[49][46]