交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-07甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：五一假期原油价格下跌，国内甲醇市场交投气氛趋于平淡，局部价格走跌。港口市场维持期现联动，宏观 及原油走弱压制期货走势，不过港口现货基差坚挺，节前价格尚有支撑，受后续供应提升影响，节后价格承压；预计短 期市场偏弱整理；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2400元/吨，09合约基差181，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年4月24日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为34.86万吨，较上周期降10.16万吨；沿海地区（江 苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源降7.44万吨至19.83万吨；偏多 4、盘面： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the domestic methanol market's trading atmosphere turned dull, with local prices declining. The port market maintained a linkage between spot and futures prices. The weakening of the macro - environment and crude oil prices suppressed the futures trend. Although the spot basis in the port was firm, the pre - holiday prices were supported, but the post - holiday prices were under pressure due to the expected increase in supply. The short - term market is expected to be weakly consolidated [4]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For the MA2509 contract: - Fundamentals: Neutral. After the May Day holiday, the domestic methanol market was affected by the decline in crude oil prices, with a dull trading atmosphere and local price drops. The port market was affected by the macro and crude oil situation, but the spot basis was firm. The subsequent supply increase will put pressure on post - holiday prices [4]. - Basis: Bullish. The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2425 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 174, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: Bullish. As of April 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 34.86 tons, a decrease of 10.16 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 7.44 tons to 19.83 tons [4]. - Market trend: Bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - Main position: Bearish. The main position is net short, and there has been a shift from long to short [4]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract oscillating between 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Long - and Short - term Analysis - Bullish factors: Some plants have shut down or have maintenance plans (such as Shanxi Huayu, Henan Hebi, Anhui Tanxin, etc.). There are maintenance plans for Jiutai, Xin'ao, and Inner Mongolia Rongxin in mid - to late March. The expected imports in March are low, and the port inventory has decreased more than expected. The olefin plant is operating at a high level, and the traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season. The inventory of methanol plants in the production areas is tight. The central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates to create a favorable monetary and financial environment, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans (such as Ningxia Changyi, Huayi). The operating rate of refineries in northern Shandong is low. The weather in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants. Although the methanol price has increased significantly recently, it is difficult to pass on the cost, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the downstream. Upstream plants are actively selling their products due to high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, in Jiangsu, it increased by 1.37% from April 24 - 30, while in Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 3.79%. The futures closing price of the main contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 2251 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China and South China ports decreased. The inventory in East China ports decreased by 6.98 tons to 22.92 tons, and in South China ports, it decreased by 3.18 tons to 11.94 tons [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average operating rate of the whole country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profits of different methanol production processes have changed. The profit of coal - based methanol production decreased by 55 yuan/ton, while the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol production increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remained unchanged [20]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, including those in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions. For example, Shaanxi Heimaotou, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end dates and losses [55]. - **Overseas Plants**: In Iran, some plants such as ZPC, Marjan, and Kaveh are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States, most plants are operating normally, but some have low operating rates or are under maintenance [56]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East, and other regions are operating stably, but some are under maintenance or have uncertain restart times. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and Qinghai Kangju has been shut down since November 12, 2024, with an undetermined restart time [57].

日报 | 2025-04-23 港口库存拐点临近，港口基差持续走弱 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤460元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润873元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2268元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差608元/吨（+15），内蒙南线2230元/吨（-30）；山东临沂2525元/吨（-10）， 鲁南基差465元/吨（+5）；河南2410元/吨（+0），河南基差350元/吨（+15）；河北2485元/吨（+0），河北基差485元 /吨（+15）。隆众内地工厂库存312369吨（-1901），西北工厂库存188000吨（-3500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单274410 吨（+19850），西北工厂待发订单136500吨（+10000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2390元/吨（-20），太仓基差130元/吨（-5），CFR中国267美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差25元/ 吨（+4），常州甲醇2620元/吨；广东甲醇2460元/吨（+0），广东基差200元/吨（+15）。隆众港口总库存585600吨 （+15800），江苏港口库存281300吨（+19300），浙江 ...

2025-04-22甲醇早报 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1、基本面：港口方面，虽然目前港口库存依然偏低，不过后续供应面提升预期下对市场走势存一定压制，基差走弱相 对明显，短期港口市场或偏弱震荡为主，另需关注宏观面变化影响；内地方面，供应面尚存一定利好，然目前内地价格 偏高，贸易商追涨谨慎，加之部分港口货量倒流至山东局部地区，或对内地局部市场存一定冲击，短期内地市场不排除 转弱可能。另需持续关注节前下游备货情况及宏观外围变化等影响；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2400元/吨，09合约基差125，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年4月17日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-04-16甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：目前市场对贸易冲突担忧仍存，国际原油再度回落，或利空甲醇期货走势，预计短期甲醇市场维持震荡概 率大，需持续关注宏观方面消息变动及烯烃装置变动等；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2440元/吨，09合约基差163，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年4月10日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为48.49万吨，较上周期降2.14万吨；沿海地区（江 苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源降2.48万吨至30.12万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 ...