空间已开启，但对港口市场提货暂无明显提振，预计港口甲醇库存继续累库。需求方面，上周各烯烃装置 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 稳定运行，陕西延长中煤榆林二期装置重启后提负荷运行，整体开工有所提升，本周中石化中原烯烃装置 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 甲醇产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2424 | 14 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 22 | 1 6735 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 675269 | -22877 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -104768 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10566 | -100 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2295 | 5 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2072.5 | 2.5 | | | 华东 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report indicates that the expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has limited impact on methanol. The port inventory is rising rapidly, and attention should be paid to the tank capacity. The downstream MTO Xingxing is still under maintenance and is expected to resume work at the end of the month. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is over, and the start - up rate will gradually increase in late August. This week, the inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream orders have declined. The formaldehyde industry is in its seasonal off - season and is waiting for a bottom - up recovery [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure The report provides figures related to methanol basis and inter - term spreads, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of methanol in different regions against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][10][21]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][26][33]. 3. Methanol Start - up, Inventory It presents data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated) [34][35][37]. 4. Regional Spreads The report shows regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [39][48][50]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][58]. Strategy The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral, inter - term, and cross - variety trading [3].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing downward pressure due to weakened cost support from domestic coal prices, increased supply from domestic production recovery, and rising import pressures, while downstream demand remains weak during the off-season [1][5]. Group 1: Domestic Supply Dynamics - Domestic coal futures prices have shown a high-level correction, leading to a loss of cost support for methanol prices, which are now primarily driven by supply and demand fundamentals [2]. - As of mid-August, the average operating rate of domestic methanol plants was 79.00%, a slight decrease of 1.35 percentage points week-on-week, but an increase of 4.16 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Methanol weekly production averaged 186.33 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.80 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 7.90 million tons [2]. Group 2: External Import Pressure - In Q3, methanol supply from the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America is abundant, but international demand is weak, leading to increased shipments to China [3]. - In July, typhoon impacts delayed methanol unloading, resulting in a total unloading volume of 110.69 million tons, with over 200,000 tons postponed to August [3]. - August methanol imports are expected to reach 1.55 million tons, setting a new monthly import record, with ongoing high import levels anticipated in September [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Conditions - Domestic methanol demand remains weak, with limited recovery in operating rates across downstream sectors [4]. - As of mid-August, the operating rate for formaldehyde was 30.13%, for dimethyl ether was 9.17%, and for acetic acid was 86.56%, indicating limited demand recovery [4]. - Port methanol inventory in East and South China reached 89.11 million tons, a significant increase of 29.51 million tons week-on-week, contributing to a bearish outlook for methanol futures [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - With the weakening cost support from coal prices, increased domestic production, and high import pressures, the methanol market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The demand side shows that the olefin devices are operating stably, with an overall increase in the start - up rate. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2425 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest is 680234 lots, an increase of 5501 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 108124 lots, a decrease of 875 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 10766, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 261 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 284 euros/ton, up 8 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 61 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 2.76 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 70.62 tons, an increase of 1.92 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 36.98 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit is 23.38 yuan/ton, down 2.02 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 310800 tons, an increase of 15200 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, up 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, up 0.43 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, up 1.82 percentage points [2]. - The acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, up 1.82 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, down 3.23 percentage points [2]. - The olefin operating rate is 83.12%, down 0.77 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 1027 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.26%, down 1.81 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.53%, down 0.08 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.43%, up 0.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.35%, up 0.45 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 20, the total methanol port inventory in China is 107.60 tons, an increase of 5.42 tons. East and South China ports have both accumulated inventory [2]. - As of August 20, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 31.08 tons, an increase of 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; the order backlog is 20.74 tons, a decrease of 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease [2]. - As of August 21, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 85.70%, a 1.45% increase [2].

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 置停车，延长中煤榆林二期装置检修结束负荷提升中，对冲之后上周烯烃行业开工稍有降低，随着延长中 煤榆林烯烃装置重启提升至满负荷运行，烯烃行业开工率将有所提升。MA2601合约短线预计在2400-2460 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | | | 甲醇产业日报 2025-08-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2424 | 33 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -109 | -3 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 674733 | -11543 期货前20名持仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The port basis of methanol continues to consolidate weakly, and the ports are in a continuous inventory accumulation cycle. The overall overseas methanol operation rate remains high, with only a small amount of maintenance in Iran and the resumption of Petronas in non - Iranian regions, increasing the pressure of arrivals in China. The maintenance of the Xingxing MTO unit has dragged down the demand. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operation rate will gradually increase in late August, which may drive the inventory in the inland to bottom out and rise. The formaldehyde downstream is in the seasonal off - season, waiting for further bottom - up recovery [2]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure The report shows figures related to methanol basis and inter - term structure, including methanol Taicang basis and main contract, basis of methanol spot in different regions relative to the main futures, and the spread between different methanol futures contracts [6][8][21]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit It presents figures on methanol production profit (such as Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (East China MTO profit of PP&EG type), and import profit (Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and spreads between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [25][33]. III. Methanol Operation & Inventory The data includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [35][37]. IV. Regional Spreads The report shows figures on various regional spreads, such as the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and spreads between other regions [39][45][48]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits It presents figures on the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][55]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging [3] - Inter - term: Wait and see [3] - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3] Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 665 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton). - Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 2080 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton), with a basis of 284 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton); Inner Mongolia southern line is 2080 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton). - Shandong Linyi is 2345 yuan/ton (-9 yuan/ton), with a basis of 149 yuan/ton (+7 yuan/ton); Henan is 2210 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton), with a basis of 14 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton); Hebei is 2300 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 164 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton). - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 295,573 tons (+1,885 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 182,500 tons (-3,000 tons); the inland factory's pending orders are 219,365 tons (-21,435 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 107,000 tons (-15,800 tons) [1]. Port - Taicang methanol is 2302 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 94 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton), CFR China is 262 US dollars/ton (-4 US dollars/ton), and the East China import spread is 17 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton). Changzhou methanol is 2425 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2300 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton), with a basis of - 96 yuan/ton (-9 yuan/ton). - Longzhong's total port inventory is 1,021,800 tons (+96,320 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 548,000 tons (+50,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 139,000 tons (-5,000 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 213,000 tons (+43,000 tons). The downstream MTO operation rate is 83.12% (-0.77%) [2]. Regional Spreads - The spread between northern Shandong and northwest (-280) is - 45 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550) is - 328 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton), the spread between Taicang and southern Shandong (-250) is - 293 yuan/ton (-14 yuan/ton); the spread between southern Shandong and Taicang (-100) is - 57 yuan/ton (+14 yuan/ton); the spread between Guangdong and East China (-180) is - 182 yuan/ton (-2 yuan/ton); the spread between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing (-200) is - 133 yuan/ton (-6 yuan/ton) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol is still weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, but downstream profits in the inland areas are poor with room for repair, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, as the proportion of old facilities in methanol production is small. The supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and the port inventory accumulation is accelerating, which will suppress the spot price in East China. After the weakening of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 18, 2025, MA01 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.66%) from August 15; MA05 closed at 2378 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.38%); MA09 closed at 2293 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.99%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average prices in various regions on August 18, 2025, showed declines compared to August 15, except for Hubei where it remained unchanged. For example, the price in Taicang was 2300 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.29%); in Shandong, it was 2315 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.28%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 96 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 14 yuan/ton from August 15 [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Buzhoukes Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 520 yuan/ton and 587.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 575 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from August 15 [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: The profit of coal - based methanol was 413.70 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 16.30 yuan/ton (-3.79%) from August 15. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 412 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: The profits of some downstream products changed. For example, the profit of Northwest MTO was 99.40 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, up 55.20 yuan/ton (124.89%) from August 15; the profit of MTBE was 74.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-26.16%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated downward, opening at 2415 yuan/ton, closing at 2396 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 438,253 lots, and the open interest was 665,628, with shrinking volume and increasing open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: After some methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country restarted or increased their loads, the overall methanol operating rate in that country reached 66.36%, and the daily total methanol production increased. As of August 18, the methanol loading volume in that country reached 715,000 tons, a 385,000 - ton increase (116.67%) compared to the same period last month [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated weakly, and the night - session closed at 2375. Given the weak fundamental outlook, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly after the weakening of coking coal sentiment [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 13, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.0218 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in the East China and South China regions continued to accumulate. With high foreign vessel arrivals and weak downstream demand, port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention. The restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin will increase the olefin industry's operating rate. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was -103 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 665,628 lots, an increase of 42,183 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -132,231 lots, a decrease of 4,802 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,968, unchanged [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,295 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The East China - Northwest price spread was 225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was -101 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. CFR China Main Port was 262 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars; CFR Southeast Asia was 324 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. FOB Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, up 1 euro; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread was -62 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 2.92 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.07 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory was 687,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; South China port inventory was 334,800 tons, an increase of 51,300 tons. Methanol import profit was 49.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38 yuan; the monthly import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons. Inland enterprise inventory was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 82.4%, an increase of 0.79 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 42.05%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.15%, an increase of 1.82 percentage points. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.06%, an increase of 1.82 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 63.39%, a decrease of 3.23 percentage points. The olefin operating rate was 83.12%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit was -940 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 21.64%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.34%, a decrease of 4 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 2.06%, a decrease of 12.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.11%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of August 13, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.0218 million tons, with 45,000 tons of inventory accumulation in East China and 51,300 tons in South China. The port inventory continued to accumulate, with 236,000 tons of foreign vessel unloading recorded and a large amount of non - explicit unloading. As of August 13, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 219,400 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. As of August 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 84.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [3] Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate decreased slightly. After the restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin to full - load operation, the olefin industry's operating rate will increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [3] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair, making methanol relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, as the proportion of old production facilities is small. Currently, inland coal - based methanol supply is gradually returning, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and port inventory accumulation is accelerating, which suppresses the spot price in East China. After the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly. (View score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2479 yuan/ton to 2435 yuan/ton, a decline of 44 yuan/ton (-1.77%); MA05 dropped from 2457 yuan/ton to 2416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton (-1.67%); MA09 fell from 2375 yuan/ton to 2340 yuan/ton, a decline of 35 yuan/ton (-1.47%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong decreased, while those in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei remained unchanged. Inner Mongolia's price dropped from 2125 yuan/ton to 2120 yuan/ton (-0.24%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from -104 yuan/ton to -85 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - **Coal Prices**: The price of Buzhoushui Q5500 coal increased from 512.5 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton (1.46%), while prices of Datong Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - **Natural Gas Prices**: Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 452.6 yuan/ton to 446.3 yuan/ton (-1.39%), and natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at -412 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: Northwest MTO profit increased from -33.6 yuan/ton to -11 yuan/ton (67.26%), and East China MTO profit increased from -620.07 yuan/ton to -550.07 yuan/ton (11.29%). Profits of some downstream products like acetic acid increased, while those of MTBE and formaldehyde remained unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated downward, opening at 2476 yuan/ton, closing at 2435 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 427,587 lots and an open interest of 557,439 lots [1]. - **Foreign**: An 850,000 - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance, and a 600,000 - ton downstream plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid - August. In a Middle - Eastern country, multiple methanol plants are operating stably, with the total loading volume in August rising to 480,000 tons, an increase of 215,000 tons (81.13%) compared to the same period last month [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Given the weak fundamentals, after the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port remains weak with rapid inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, increasing the arrival pressure. The downstream MTO device, Xingxing, will be shut down for one - month maintenance starting at the end of July. There is a possibility of methanol production reduction in Shandong during the military parade. Inland methanol prices are stronger than those at the port. Inland factory inventory is low, and coal - based methanol production is on the rise, with further recovery expected at the end of August. Some downstream industries like acetic acid are seeing a decline in production, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [5][6][10][11][14][22][24] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [5][26][30][34] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures present total port inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [5][36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show price differences in different regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [5][40][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [5][51][58] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 when it is high [3]