Core Viewpoint - The fixed income market indicates that investors are not overly concerned about the ongoing government shutdown, as evidenced by stable bond yields and tight credit spreads [2][4][3]. Fixed Income Market Insights - Fixed income markets are currently stable, with no significant flight to quality observed, contrasting with stock market movements [2][3]. - Both short-term and long-term yields are trading within a range, suggesting a lack of investor anxiety regarding potential economic impacts from the shutdown [3][4]. - Credit spreads for both investment-grade and high-yield bonds remain tight, indicating confidence in corporate bond investments despite the shutdown [4]. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Federal Reserve rate cuts primarily affect short-term yields, with Treasury bill yields expected to decline in anticipation of these cuts [6][7]. - Long-term yields, such as the 10-year Treasury, are less directly influenced by Fed actions and are more aligned with long-term growth and inflation expectations [7][8]. - Current inflation rates are around 3%, above the Fed's target, which may prevent long-term yields from falling significantly even if rate cuts occur [8][9]. Economic Implications of the Shutdown - The longer the government shutdown persists, the greater the risk to the economy and global markets, particularly regarding the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions [13][16]. - The absence of key economic data, such as job reports, complicates the Fed's decision-making process and may lead to uncertainty in future monetary policy [15][16]. - If the shutdown continues and data releases are missed, it could create a more uncertain economic outlook, impacting the Fed's policy decisions [16].

Market Outlook - The market is overbought but has been since September, a decent pullback would extend market health [1][2] - S&P is expected to reach 7,000 by year-end and 7,200 in early 2026 [2] - Long-term secular trends suggest the S&P could reach 10,000 to 13,000, a double from current levels [4] - Interest rates are expected to decline into 2026, potentially with the 10-year close to 2% [9] Key Drivers and Sectors - AI and tech-related sectors, including infrastructure and utilities, are key drivers expected to lead through the end of the decade [3] - Semiconductor is the true leadership in this market, followed by tech and tech-related AI [12] Economic Factors - Current nominal growth is tracking at 250% for the quarter, with inflation at 250%, an unusual environment for multiple Fed rate cuts [5] - There is concern that inflation may not return to the 2% level, posing a risk [6][7] Investment Strategy - Great buying opportunities exist in the market [3] - Some subsectors like drone technology and quantum computing are running hot, making it hard to chase them [10][11] - The VIX does not currently indicate a sell signal [13]

Market Trends - The market is experiencing strong upward momentum, with new highs being reached, largely based on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in a stable economy [1][2] - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 7,000 by year-end and potentially 7,200 by early 2026, indicating continued bullish sentiment [2] Investment Opportunities - There are significant buying opportunities in the market, particularly driven by advancements in AI and technology sectors, including infrastructure and utilities [3][4] - Long-term projections suggest the S&P could reach between 10,000 to 13,000, indicating a potential doubling from current levels, despite the possibility of a bear market in between [4] Economic Indicators - Current nominal growth is tracking at approximately 2.5%, with inflation also at 2.5%, creating an unusual environment for multiple Fed rate cuts [5] - There is skepticism about returning to a 2% inflation level, which raises concerns about long-term economic stability [6][7] Gold and Inflation - Gold has recently surpassed $4,000, reflecting investor concerns about inflation and economic stability [8] - The bond market's performance will be crucial in determining stock market stability, with expectations of declining interest rates into 2026 [9] Sector Performance - Semiconductors and technology, particularly AI-related stocks, are identified as the true leaders in the current market cycle [12] - There is a recognition of potential overheating in certain subsectors, such as drone technology and quantum computing, which may require caution [10][12] Market Sentiment - Current sentiment indicators, such as the VIX, do not signal a market peak, suggesting that concerns about a bubble may not yet reflect in investor behavior [13]

Market Overview - The stock market has experienced a sharp rally, which contrasts with the underlying macroeconomic conditions [1] - Consumers are expressing concerns regarding inflation and potential job cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates [1] Analyst Background - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley [1] - He has served as an adviser to several seed-round startups and has been a contributor on Seeking Alpha since 2017 [1] - His insights are frequently quoted in various web publications and his articles are syndicated to popular trading apps like Robinhood [1]

Core Insights - Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp. (CHMI) is positioned to benefit from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts through 2026, making it a noteworthy investment opportunity [1][5] Company Overview - Cherry Hill operates as a dual-sleeve strategy REIT, with a portfolio that includes 77% agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and 23% mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) as of Q2 2025 [2] - The business model is sensitive to market interest rate changes, which can impact asset valuation positively in favorable conditions [3] Risk Management - Cherry Hill actively manages interest rate risks by utilizing a natural hedging relationship between MSRs and RMBS to mitigate volatility [3] Financial Performance - The company has fully internalized its operating structure, aiming for better alignment between management incentives and shareholder interests, which is expected to lead to annualized cost savings [4] - Cherry Hill anticipates core earnings growth from $12.1 million in 2024 to $20.2 million in 2026, supported by a strong dividend yield of 16.2% [4] Market Opportunities - With the Fed's first rate cut initiated for 2025, further cuts are expected, which will lower borrowing costs, improve refinancing costs, and enhance asset valuations for Cherry Hill [5] - Currently, Cherry Hill trades at a discount across several key valuation metrics, presenting an opportunity for investors before broader market recognition [5]

Yahoo Finance speaks with market insiders about the outlook for stocks and Fed rate cuts in October amid the US government shutdown. #youtube #stocks #investing About Yahoo Finance: Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, advanced tools, and more information to help you manage your financial life. - Get the latest news and data at finance.yahoo.com - Download the Yahoo Finance app on Apple (https://apple.co/3Rten0R) or Androi ...

Uh the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hitting new highs uh this morning as the government shutdown is in its second day. Our next guest says the deadlock in Washington doesn't change his overall strategy, but he did make some moves uh for Q4, including lowering communication services to a market weight from overweight for the first time since 2023. Joining us now is Scott Croner, US equity strategist at City.Uh Scott, great to have you on here. So big picture, it feels as if I mean the constructive forces remain in pla ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have increased following a five-day rally, reaching new records amid a US government shutdown and expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts due to weak private payrolls data [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Bullion is trading near $3,880 an ounce, approximately $15 below its peak, with the government shutdown potentially causing a blackout in essential economic data needed for Fed rate decisions [2]. - The shutdown has delayed the release of non-farm payroll numbers, which may increase pressure on the dollar and lead traders to bet on two more rate cuts by the Fed this year to support a weakening labor market [3]. - Gold has surged 48% this year, on track for its largest annual gain since 1979, driven by central bank purchases and increased holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as the Fed resumed rate cuts [4]. Group 2: ETF Inflows and Demand - Monthly ETF inflows in September were the largest in three years, with notable purchases from Chinese buyers, indicating a resurgence in demand for gold-backed funds after a period of low interest [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The US Supreme Court's refusal to allow President Trump to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook may alleviate concerns regarding Fed independence, potentially impacting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Current Market Performance - Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,884.75 an ounce, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index weakened by 0.1%. Silver also saw a slight increase after reaching a 14-year high [7].

Economic Data and Market Reactions - The government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, including jobless claims and the non-farm payroll (NFP) report, leading to increased focus on Federal Reserve commentary [1][2][4] - Market participants are anticipating Fed rate cuts, with over a 95% chance perceived for this month, as labor market weakness is expected to push equity markets higher [5][7] - The Challenger job cuts report showed a year-over-year drop of 25.8%, indicating a deceleration in layoffs, with reported job cuts at 54,064, significantly lower than the previous month's 85,975 [14][15] Federal Reserve Commentary - Fed members, including Logan and Goulsby, are expected to provide insights on alternative data sets due to the lack of official reports, with a focus on the ADP report and PMI data [3][11][12] - The ADP report indicated a loss of 63,000 jobs in the Midwest, reflecting a potential disconnect with the upcoming BLS data due to adjustments [9][16] - The Fed is likely to discuss the implications of the current labor market trends and their impact on inflation and economic outlook [10][11] Commodity Market Insights - Oil demand remains weak globally, with prices influenced by supply-side factors such as disruptions in Russian oil exports and refinery outages in the U.S. [21][22] - China's recent behavior of importing crude oil for storage rather than consumption suggests a weakening demand picture in the near term [22] - Seasonal trends typically lead to pricing weakness in oil and petroleum products during winter, but geopolitical risks, particularly related to Ukraine, could create upward pressure on prices [23][24]

Market Trends & Sentiment - Despite anxieties around government shutdowns and trade deals, Nvidia and Micron are at record highs, indicating continued allocation to the AI trade [1] - Tech stocks, particularly big tech in the US, remain attractive to investors seeking solid trades [3] - Optimism surrounding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts is supporting the tech sector [3] - There's a pull from the US into tech stocks in Europe, showing encouraging signs for the European tech sector [4][5] Policy & Geopolitics - US administration policy is a central part of how markets are responding and affecting sentiment [7] - The market's response to policy announcements is more relaxed compared to the beginning of the previous administration [8][9] - The US government may proactively seek stakes in sectors and companies, potentially to enhance competitiveness against countries like China [10] - Taiwan rejects a US demand to bring 50% of semiconductor manufacturing into the United States, impacting trade negotiations and the technology sector [6] Valuation & Risk - High valuations are noted, but it's crucial to focus on earnings season and forward guidance [11][12] - The market is considered overstretched in some areas, but a big collapse is not necessarily expected; consolidation is possible [13] - Positive earnings reports in the coming months and further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could catalyze another leg higher [13]