2026 年 2 月 8 日 总量研究 ——2026 年 2 月 8 日利率债观察 要点 7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 1、7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 近段时间，市场中对 7D OMO 降息的预期有所升温。这主要是不少投资者"判 断"2 月 4 日 3M 买断式逆回购的边际中标利率已降至 1.4%。鉴于当前 7D OMO 利率也为 1.4%，而 3M 和 7D 的央行资金利率之间通常会有一定的期限利差， 因此一些投资者认为本次 3M 买断式逆回购利率的下行将倒逼 7D OMO 降息。 实际上，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作采用的是固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标的方式，边际中标利率由市场化形成，不具有政策利率的属性。人民银行加大 流动性投放力度，买断式逆回购和 MLF 的量给得足一些，那么自然其边际中标 利率就容易低一些。所以，买断式逆回购边际中标利率的下降与 7D OMO 降息 之间并无必然的联系，或至少说是没有直接的联系。 进一步讲，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作数量的确定在主观上是为了调控 CD 等货 币市场利率，在客观上又会影响到工具本身的边际中标利率。因此，对于大多数 投资者而言，关注可以实时获 ...

/ 利率｜开年机构行为的五点关注 证券研究报告 固收专题报告 / 2026.01.27 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 郑艺鹏 zhengyp@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《信用 | 二永债可以继续拉久期吗？》 2026-01-26 2. 《转债 | 高估值下机构如何择券？ -2025Q4 公募持仓点评》 2026-01-25 3. 《期货｜关注反弹持续性》 2026-01-25 核心观点 ❖ 开年以来债市行为怎么看？银行增持动力的确强劲，而交易盘则相对谨慎， 券商在等待右侧，基金在寻求确定性，保险买入纯债整体符合季节性，此外 其他类和保险的行为体现理财规模在延续快速增长。 往后看，我们认为交易盘动能在逐渐恢复，其中券商对 3-10y 国债买入增多， 但对超长国债买入动能依旧不算强；基金恢复相对明显，但还是更青睐票息 思路；银行配置可能持续偏强，因此债市可以维持多头思维，短期内信用可 以更乐观。 ❖ 关注 1：银行开年买债超季节性，大行 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut its federal funds rate three times in 2024 and three times in 2025, indicating a potential decline in competitive CD rates in the future [1] - The best CD rates are currently found in shorter terms, particularly around one year or less, with online banks and credit unions leading in offering competitive rates [2] CD Rates Overview - As of January 3, 2026, the highest CD rate available is 4.1% APY from LendingClub for an 8-month CD [2] - The interest earned from a CD is determined by the annual percentage rate (APY), which reflects total earnings after one year, factoring in the base interest rate and compounding frequency [2] Interest Earnings Examples - An investment of $1,000 in a one-year CD at 1.63% APY would yield a total balance of $1,016.42 after one year, with $16.42 earned in interest [3] - Conversely, a one-year CD at 4% APY would grow the balance to $1,040.74, resulting in $40.74 in interest [3] Deposit Impact on Earnings - A deposit of $10,000 in a one-year CD at 4% APY would result in a total balance of $10,407.42 at maturity, earning $407.42 in interest [4] Types of CDs - Bump-up CDs allow for a one-time request to increase the interest rate if the bank's rates rise during the term [4] - No-penalty CDs permit early withdrawal without penalties, providing more liquidity [4] - Jumbo CDs require higher minimum deposits (typically $100,000 or more) and may offer higher interest rates, though the difference may be minimal in the current environment [4] - Brokered CDs are purchased through brokerages and may offer higher rates or flexible terms but carry additional risks and may not be FDIC-insured [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses strategies for retirees, particularly those planning to retire in 2026, to ensure their savings last throughout retirement Group 1: Withdrawal Strategies - Implementing a smart withdrawal rate is crucial, with the 4% rule being a common guideline for initial withdrawals from retirement savings [3][4] - The sustainability of a 4% withdrawal rate depends on the investment mix of the savings, with a conservative portfolio necessitating a more cautious withdrawal rate [4] Group 2: Cash Reserves - Having cash on hand to withstand market downturns is essential, especially early in retirement, to avoid detrimental impacts on savings [5][6] - It is advisable to maintain enough cash to cover one to three years of living expenses, providing a buffer against potential market corrections [6] Group 3: Additional Income Streams - Boosting other income streams can alleviate pressure on retirement savings, allowing for a more sustainable financial strategy [7] - Current strong CD rates present an opportunity for retirees to secure competitive returns on cash reserves [8]

“Will there be any costly penalties or taxes associated with using the POD method?” (Photo subjects are models.) - Getty Images/iStockphoto Dear Quentin, I have a very modest sum in my CD, checking, and savings accounts (approximately $150,000). I have set up a payable on death (POD) designation on all of these accounts. I have named my daughter as the recipient and beneficiary on all my accounts, including my pension insurance policy and any Social Security benefits. Most Read from MarketWatch I com ...

Core Insights - The rise of "nostalgia-themed" commercial districts is attracting significant consumer interest, blending vintage aesthetics with modern shopping experiences [1][5][7] Group 1: Nostalgia-Themed Commercial Spaces - Many cities are developing nostalgia-themed commercial areas that replicate the old street styles and offer retro-packaged products, appealing to both older generations and younger consumers [1][5] - In Beijing's Wangfujing Street, a nostalgia-themed space features classic scenes from the 1970s and 1980s, such as old post offices and photo studios, providing an immersive experience for visitors [3][5] - These spaces not only serve as photo opportunities but also sell nostalgic products like vintage game consoles and snack packages, creating emotional connections with consumers [5][7] Group 2: Consumer Trends in Nostalgia - The nostalgia trend is characterized by a blend of historical depth and real-life integration, allowing different generations to resonate with shared memories, thus encouraging spending on nostalgic experiences [7] - Young consumers are increasingly interested in collecting vintage items, such as old books and audio-visual products, which are seen as new collectibles [8][12] - In Chengdu, a vintage bookstore and a collection store for audio-visual products have become popular among younger demographics, indicating a revival of interest in items that carry historical significance [10][14]

Core Insights - The articles discuss financial advice for seniors facing retirement challenges, emphasizing the importance of capital preservation and exploring various financial assistance programs available for those with modest assets [1][5][6]. Financial Assistance and Resources - Local organizations, such as Area Agencies on Aging and the Department of Housing Counseling Services, can provide free or low-cost advice for seniors not qualifying for Medicaid [1]. - Programs like property-tax relief for seniors, Weatherization Assistance Program, and Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program are available to help manage financial burdens [2]. Retirement Planning and Financial Security - The average retirement savings for 70-year-olds is reported to be $114,000, highlighting the financial landscape for seniors [7]. - A conservative investment strategy is recommended for seniors, typically involving a mix of 40% stocks, 50% bonds, and 10% cash to mitigate risks [9]. Lifestyle Considerations - Seniors are encouraged to assess their lifestyle and financial needs, as retirement savings will only stretch as far as their lifestyle allows [8]. - Downsizing or renting out a room could be viable options for seniors looking to manage their housing costs and financial security [4]. Economic Context - Current interest rates for CDs and high-yield savings accounts are around 4.2%, which is above the inflation rate of approximately 3%, making these options attractive for capital preservation [5]. - Keeping significant amounts in checking accounts is not advisable due to inflation, suggesting the need for better investment strategies [6].

Group 1 - The current Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at 2.7%, indicating that inflation remains high and continues to impact the purchasing power of savings [2][7] - Traditional banks are offering significantly lower savings yields, with the national average at 0.39% and major banks like Chase and Bank of America providing only 0.01%, which exacerbates the loss of value in savings [3][4] - To counteract inflation, it is essential for savers to earn a return that exceeds the inflation rate, which can be achieved through high-yield savings accounts that offer rates between 4.20% and 5.00% [6][8] Group 2 - High-yield savings accounts provide a viable solution for savers to protect their funds from inflation, allowing for real growth in savings rather than a decline in purchasing power [5][6] - The disparity between inflation and savings account yields highlights the importance of moving funds to accounts that offer higher returns to maintain financial health [4][5] - Certificates of Deposit (CDs) can also be considered for locking in higher APYs, providing additional protection against inflation over a longer term [7]

Find out how much you could earn by locking in a high CD rate today. The Federal Reserve cut its federal funds rate three times in 2024, and it recently announced its second rate cut of 2025, so now could be your last chance to lock in a competitive CD rate before rates fall further. CD rates vary widely across financial institutions, so it’s important to ensure you’re getting the best rate possible when shopping around for a CD. The following is a breakdown of CD rates today and where to find the best of ...

Core Points - BankFirst Capital Corporation declared a cash dividend of $1.05 per share, payable on December 10, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 1, 2025 [1] - The company reported total assets of approximately $3.34 billion as of September 30, 2025 [2] Company Overview - BankFirst Capital Corporation is a registered bank holding company headquartered in Columbus, Mississippi, with its wholly-owned subsidiary, BankFirst Financial Services, founded in 1888 [2] - The bank operates multiple branches across Mississippi and Alabama, providing a wide range of services including internet banking, mortgage loans, and merchant services [2]