Canadian energy infrastructure companies Enbridge (ENB) and TC Energy (TRP) reported Q4 2025 results this past Friday, the last day of trading before the holiday weekend. The former’s standard deviation was 3.38 with a 3.94% gain on the day, while the latter’s standard deviation was 2.75 with a 3.49% gain. While neither share price gain was earth-shattering, both stocks saw share volumes significantly above their 30-day averages. More News from Barchart The cause of the gains: healthy Q4 2025 results r ...

Over 20+ years, 80% of market wealth comes from businesses that:• Grow revenues• Expand free cash flow• Reinvest at high ROIC ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying underpriced equities with strong upside potential and overappreciated companies with inflated valuations in investment strategies [1] - It highlights the significance of analyzing Free Cash Flow and Return on Capital for deeper investment insights beyond basic profit and sales analysis [1] - The author acknowledges that while some growth stocks may deserve premium valuations, it is crucial for investors to investigate whether the market's current opinions are accurate [1] Industry Focus - The research primarily concentrates on the energy sector, including oil & gas supermajors, mid-cap, and small-cap exploration & production companies, as well as oilfield services firms [1] - The analysis also extends to various other industries, such as mining, chemicals, and luxury goods [1]

Core View - The company reported strong fourth-quarter earnings but lowered its sales forecast for the upcoming fiscal year, indicating mixed performance expectations going forward [1][5]. Quarterly Metrics - The company achieved fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.18, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.79 [2]. - Quarterly sales reached $10.84 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase and exceeding the expected $10.495 billion [2]. - Revenue growth occurred despite a 1% decline in global light vehicle production [2]. Sales and Production Insights - Increased sales were attributed to higher production on ongoing programs and the launch of new models, including the Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator, Xiaomi YU7, and Jetour Zongheng G700 [3]. - Reported U.S. dollar sales benefited from a net strengthening of foreign currencies, contributing an additional $355 million [3]. - Net customer recoveries helped offset higher tariff costs incurred during the year [3]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EBIT rose 18% to $814 million, with the adjusted EBIT margin expanding by 100 basis points to 7.5% [4]. - The company generated cash from operations of $1.98 billion, with free cash flow amounting to $1.35 billion during the quarter [4]. Dividend and Outlook - A fourth-quarter dividend of $0.495 per common share was declared, representing a 2% increase [5]. - The company forecasts fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings between $6.25 and $7.25 per share, exceeding analysts' estimate of $5.99 [5]. - The sales outlook for fiscal 2026 was lowered to a range of $41.9 billion to $43.5 billion, down from a previous forecast of $48.8 billion to $51.2 billion, with analysts expecting $42.141 billion [5]. Margin and Cash Flow Projections - The company projects an adjusted EBIT margin of 6% to 6.6% for the upcoming fiscal year [6]. - Anticipated strong free cash flow is expected to be utilized for share repurchases under the current buyback authorization [6]. Stock Performance - At the time of publication, Magna International shares increased by 20.56% to $69.70, reaching a new 52-week high [7].

Core Insights - Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported positive free cash flow (FCF) for the latest quarter ending January 24, 2026, although it was lower than the previous year. The FCF margin remains strong, and management's guidance indicates higher earnings, leading analysts to raise target prices for CSCO stock [1][3]. Financial Performance - Cisco's fiscal Q2 revenue increased by 10.3% to $15.3 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) rose by 11% [4]. - Operating cash flow (OCF) decreased from $2.24 billion last year to $1.82 billion, representing 11.8% of quarterly revenue, down from last year's 16% OCF margin [5]. - The Q2 FCF was reported at $1.539 billion, which is 10.0% of revenue, compared to $2.03 billion last year with a 14.5% FCF margin [5]. Long-term Projections - Over the trailing 12 months, Cisco's FCF was $12.24 billion, representing 20.73% of TTM revenue, down from 23.6% the previous year. Management's higher revenue forecasts suggest potential for increased FCF over the next 12 months [6]. - Management expects revenue for the current year to range between $61.2 billion and $61.7 billion, with a midpoint of $61.45 billion, which is 8.5% higher than last year's revenue of $56.65 billion [8]. - Analysts project revenue of $61.56 billion for the year ending July 2026 and $64.93 billion for the following fiscal year, indicating a potential rise to $63.245 billion over the next 12 months, an increase of 11.64% over FY 2025 [9].

Fourth Quarter 2025 Results February 13, 2026 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | ENGINEERING | INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Colliers 2 Highlights (US $ millions, except per share amounts) | Three months ended | 2025 | 2024 | %Change | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | December 31 | | | USD | LC(1) | | Revenues | 1,606.5 | 1,501.6 | 7% | 5% | | Net Revenues | 1,428.1 | 1,312.8 | 9% | 7% | | Adjusted EBITDA | 245.1 | 225.3 | 9% | 6% | | Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 15.3% | 15.0% | | | | Net Margin | 17.2% | 17.2% | | | | Adjusted ...

Core Insights - The company reported strong operational performance in 2025, achieving a record operational performance despite facing inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions [1][5] - The company received $298 million in net new business awards in 2025, which is expected to support profitable growth in the coming years [1][27] - The company achieved a 24% improvement in operating income for the year due to efficiency improvements and cost savings [2] Financial Performance - Fourth quarter 2025 sales reached $672 million, a 1.8% increase from 2024, despite production disruptions [7] - Full year 2025 sales totaled $2.74 billion, a 0.4% increase compared to 2024, driven by favorable foreign exchange and customer pricing adjustments [9][10] - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2025 was $209.7 million, up from $180.7 million in 2024, reflecting improved efficiencies and cost savings [10] Safety and Operational Excellence - The company achieved a safety incident rate of 0.24 per 200,000 hours worked in 2025, surpassing the previous best and well below the world-class benchmark [3] - 31 plants completed the year with a perfect safety record of zero reportable incidents, affirming the company's commitment to safety [3] Strategic Outlook - The company expects to continue building on its successes in 2025 to drive margin expansion and value for stakeholders in 2026 and beyond [5] - The company is optimistic about its growth strategy, particularly in the Fluid Handling Systems and Sealing Systems segments, with a focus on geographic expansion and innovation [21][22] - The company anticipates that revenue from Chinese OEMs will grow significantly, aiming to increase their share of total revenue from 36% to over 60% by 2030 [24][57] Cash Flow and Liquidity - The company ended 2025 with strong free cash flow of $44.6 million in the fourth quarter and positive free cash flow for the full year of $16.3 million [15] - Total liquidity at year-end was over $352 million, with cash on hand of $191.7 million and an undrawn revolving credit facility of $160.9 million [16][17] New Business and Innovation - The company received nearly $300 million in net new business awards in 2025, with 74% related to value-add innovations and battery electric or hybrid vehicle platforms [27][28] - The company expects to triple total sales to Chinese OEMs over the next five years, leveraging established relationships and technology [26][60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, sales totaled $672 million, a 1.8% increase compared to Q4 2024, despite disruptions in production volumes due to customer supply chain issues [9] - Full year 2025 sales reached $2.74 billion, a 0.4% increase from 2024, primarily driven by favorable foreign exchange and net customer pricing [11] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $34.9 million, or 5.2% of sales, down from $54.3 million, or 8.2% of sales in Q4 2024, due to industry disruptions and inflationary costs [10] - For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $209.7 million, up from $180.7 million in 2024, reflecting improved manufacturing efficiencies and cost savings [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved $298 million in net new business awards in 2025, which is expected to support future profitable growth [7] - Cost savings of $64 million were generated from efficiency improvements and lean initiatives in the supply chain during 2025 [6] - The company reported a 24% improvement in operating income for the year, despite facing inflationary pressures [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of over 15% in China between 2025 and 2028, with expectations to triple total sales to Chinese OEMs globally over the next five years [25] - Chinese OEMs currently represent approximately 36% of revenue in China, with a target to increase this to over 60% by 2030 [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its fluid handling systems segment geographically and leveraging growth trends in hybrid vehicles [22] - The sealing systems strategy aims to sustain operational excellence and leverage global expertise to drive profitable growth [23] - The company plans to continue investing in innovation and new product launches to enhance market share and customer value [22][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, citing successful execution of strategic plans and expected margin expansion [20] - The company expects to achieve a double-digit EBITDA margin for the full year in 2026, with the first quarter anticipated to be the weakest [30] - Management highlighted the importance of volume and mix as key factors influencing guidance for 2026, with a focus on maintaining strong relationships with customers [95] Other Important Information - The company ended 2025 with total liquidity of over $352 million, including $191.7 million in cash and $160.9 million available on its revolving credit facility [18] - Capital expenditures for 2025 were $48 million, or 1.8% of sales, consistent with the previous year [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is Lean a big contributor to the Adjusted EBITDA guidance? - Management indicated that it is more business as usual, with continuous improvement efforts ongoing [38] Question: Are new products included in the volume, mix, and price adjustments? - Yes, all new business booked in 2025 is included in the adjustments [39] Question: Is the F-Series production back to normal? - Management noted that production is ramping up, but specifics were not disclosed [44] Question: What is the urgency for refinancing before debt maturities? - Management prefers to complete refinancing before the first lien and third lien notes come current [63] Question: What are the biggest variables impacting guidance for 2026? - Volume and mix are the primary factors, with raw material fluctuations being less of a concern due to effective contracts [95]

Core Insights - TELUS reported a record free cash flow of CAD 2.2 billion for 2025, with guidance for 2026 indicating continued growth in service revenue and adjusted EBITDA of 2-4% [4][7][9] - The company emphasized customer loyalty, achieving a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.97%, marking the 12th consecutive year below 1% [1][5] - Leadership transition is underway, with CEO Darren Entwistle announcing his retirement effective June 30, 2026, and former CIBC CEO Victor Dodig set to take over [2][5] Financial Performance - TELUS generated record free cash flow of CAD 2.2 billion in 2025, an 11% increase from 2024, and expects free cash flow to grow to approximately CAD 2.45 billion in 2026 [4][9] - Adjusted EBITDA for TELUS increased by 3.1% in 2025, with a forecast for similar growth in 2026 [7][8] - The company reported a decline in ARPU of 1.6% in Q4, but noted it was the strongest sequential improvement among peers [7] Customer Growth - TELUS added 1.1 million combined mobile and fixed net customers in 2025, including a record 716,000 connected device additions [5][6] - In Q4, the company achieved 377,000 total telecom customer net additions, with wireless net additions of 337,000 [6] Health and Digital Initiatives - TELUS Health reported double-digit revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, with CAD 431 million in annualized synergies from the LifeWorks acquisition [10][11] - The company aims to grow AI-enabling capabilities revenue from CAD 800 million in 2025 to approximately CAD 2 billion by 2028 [12] Capital Allocation and Leverage - TELUS is reducing its dividend reinvestment plan discount to 1.75% from 2%, with plans for further reductions through 2026 and 2027 [14] - The company ended 2025 with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.4x, with expectations to reach about 3.3x by the end of 2026 [15] Competitive Landscape - TELUS executives noted increased promotional activity in the wireless market, with a strategy to maintain premium brand economics while focusing on churn and cash flow [16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Warrior achieved a record high quarterly sales volume of 2.9 million short tons in Q4 2025, a 53% increase compared to 1.9 million tons in Q4 2024 [14] - Total sales volume for 2025 was 9.6 million short tons, a 21% increase year-over-year, while production volume reached 10.2 million short tons, a 24% increase from 2024 [6][7] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $93 million, a 31% increase from Q3 2025, and a 75% increase from $53 million in Q4 2024 [21][23] - Net income for Q4 2025 was $23 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, compared to $1 million or $0.02 per diluted share in Q4 2024 [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Blue Creek mine began longwall operations in Q4 2025, contributing 1.3 million tons of production, exceeding expectations [15][16] - Mine No. 4 set a new record high output for both sales and production volume, continuing its strong performance [7] - Cash costs per ton decreased to approximately $94 in Q4 2025 from $120 in the same quarter last year, reflecting lower overall spending and the contribution of low-cost Blue Creek tons [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The PLV FOB Australia index averaged $182 per short ton in Q4 2025, marking a 9% increase from Q3 2025 [9] - Chinese steel export volumes for 2025 reached a record high of 119 million metric tons, a 7.2% increase year-over-year, while crude steel production decreased by 4.4% [8] - The average East Coast HVA index price decreased by $6 per ton, or 4%, in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025 [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Warrior plans to ramp production in line with contractual volumes to support pricing discipline while maximizing long-term value [17] - The company aims to reduce coal inventory levels to just below 1 million tons by the end of 2026 [35] - Warrior's strategy includes significant investments in Blue Creek, which is expected to enhance the company's cost structure and drive margin expansion [19][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects steelmaking coal markets to remain consistent with 2025 levels, entering 2026 from a position of strength with higher contracted volumes and record production capacity [32] - The company anticipates total sales and production volumes to be significantly higher in 2026 due to the early start of Blue Creek longwall operations [32] - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding pricing, noting that recent disruptions in global mining production may be temporary [36] Other Important Information - Warrior's total available liquidity at the end of Q4 2025 was $484 million, consisting of cash and cash equivalents of $300 million, short-term investments of $43 million, and $141 million available under the ABL Facility [31] - The company plans to spend the remaining construction CapEx of $50-$75 million on the Blue Creek project in Q1 2026 [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the PLV price assumption for 2026? - The PLV assumption is a range of $185-$215 per short ton [41][43] Question: How should working capital be expected to change in 2026? - Working capital is expected to build in the first half of the year due to increased accounts receivable and inventory [44][65] Question: What are the payments for federal leases? - The payments for federal leases are about $9 million per year for four years [46][48] Question: How will cash flow be managed in 2026? - The company expects to be free cash flow positive in the second half of 2026, depending on pricing [56][58] Question: What is the outlook for Mine No. 4's production? - Mine No. 4 is expected to continue running at levels similar to the previous year, maintaining strong performance [88]