Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on global economic growth, with a projected downshift in GDP growth to 1.4% annualized rate in the second half of 2025, the slowest pace in over three years [2][3]. Core Insights - Global GDP growth is expected to slow significantly, influenced by various factors including trade tensions, labor market softening, and geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East [3][11]. - The report highlights a potential recession risk, with a 40% probability of a US/global economic recession due to household purchasing power pressures and business sector retrenchment [3][15]. - Inflation dynamics are shifting, with US core CPI inflation anticipated to accelerate towards a 4% year-over-year pace, while Euro area inflation is expected to drop to 2% [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring global services PMI and business expectations as indicators of economic resilience [14]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Outlook - Global GDP growth is projected to be 2.3% in 2025, with a significant slowdown anticipated in the second half of the year [33]. - The report notes a 0.7 percentage point reduction in global GDP growth due to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [17]. Trade and Tariffs - The impact of tariff-related growth impulses is being felt, particularly in the global goods sector, with a noted decline in manufacturing output and softening goods demand [4][11]. - The report discusses the limited pass-through of tariff hikes to US inflation, suggesting that firms are currently absorbing the costs [12]. Regional Insights - In Asia, the report indicates that while some countries are experiencing growth, the overall sentiment is cautious due to trade policy uncertainties and potential impacts from rising oil prices [29]. - The report highlights that China is expected to see a moderation in growth, with a revised GDP forecast of 3.5% annualized rate for Q2 2025 [28]. Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to respond to labor market weaknesses with cautious easing, while other central banks, such as those in Scandinavia, are also leaning towards easing monetary policy [19][20]. - The report anticipates that the Bank of Japan will continue its quantitative tightening, with a focus on reducing its holdings of government bonds [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a full-year GDP growth forecast for China at 4.8% [5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes three main themes in China's economic outlook: external uncertainty due to trade war risks, counter-cyclical economic policies to stabilize growth, and a reassessment of China's innovation capabilities [3][4]. - Economic activity showed strong growth in the first quarter of 2025, with real GDP expanding by 5.4% year-on-year, but is expected to slow down in subsequent quarters due to trade tensions and domestic challenges [4][5]. - The report highlights a significant decline in exports to the US, with a 25% month-on-month seasonally adjusted drop in April and a further 15% in May, while exports to non-US markets remained robust [9][4]. Economic Indicators - Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 3.5% in Q2, 3% in Q3, and 2.5% in Q4 of 2025, with a full-year forecast of 4.8% [5][6]. - Key economic indicators for 2023-2025 include: - Real GDP growth: 5.2% (2018-2022 average), 5.0% (2024), 4.8% (2025 forecast) - Consumption growth: 4.4% (2023), 2.2% (2024), 2.8% (2025) - Merchandise trade balance: US$594 billion (2023), US$767 billion (2024), US$829 billion (2025) [6]. - The report notes a high augmented fiscal deficit of 12.6% of GDP for 2025, indicating limited room for additional fiscal easing [37][34]. Trade Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of tariff dynamics, noting that while peak tariffs have passed, uncertainties remain, with potential for both tariff reductions and increases [7][8]. - China's exports are expected to face challenges from high US tariffs, but the trade surplus is projected to reach a new record high, with net exports contributing approximately 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth [13][9]. Domestic Economic Performance - The report indicates divergent domestic economic performance, with industrial production growth outpacing consumption growth, and high-tech sectors outperforming traditional sectors [16]. - Housing market weakness has re-emerged despite previous policy relaxations, with expectations of continued correction in 2025 [20][18]. - The success of new economy innovations, such as DeepSeek, is highlighted as a potential driver for economic recovery and private investment [24][25]. Policy Outlook - Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain accommodative but data-dependent, with low expectations for additional stimulus packages in the near term [34][37]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming key events, including US-China trade negotiations and domestic policy meetings, which will shape the economic outlook for the second half of 2025 [39][40].

The Chinese government will, as always, encourage and support entrepreneurs in their undertakings and endeavours and continue to foster a market oriented world class business environment governed by a sound legal framework. With arms wide open, we warmly welcome enterprises from around the world to invest in China, deepen your roots in China, develop alongside China, and work with us for a better future. To conclude, I wish this annual meeting a full success.Thank you. That was the Chinese premier, Li Qiang ...

Trade War Impact on Toy Industry - Manufacturers are accelerating shipments to the U S to avoid tariffs imposed by President Trump on China [1] - The toy industry faces significant tariff impacts, especially for companies with a majority of clients based in the U S [1] - Mattel warned that tariffs on Chinese goods could lead to higher prices for consumers [2] Company Strategies & Responses - Some toy factories are considering relocating facilities to Southeast Asia to bypass tariffs [3] - One toy factory is establishing a new manufacturing base in Vietnam, expected to begin operations in July [3] - A toy company based in Illinois, Learning Resources, has filed a lawsuit against President Trump, alleging he exceeded his presidential authority [3] Market & Manufacturing Dynamics - Thousands of factories in China have been affected by the trade war [2] - A company's employees in Shenzhen are working overtime to take advantage of the current U S -China truce [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dollar Tree is emerging as a compelling comeback story following a disappointing period in 2023 and 2024, driven by steady demand and operational efficiency, resulting in a 30% stock price increase year to date [1]. Company Overview - Dollar Tree operates a value-driven business model, offering a wide range of products priced at $1.25, which has attracted a loyal customer base with over 9,000 stores in the U.S. and Canada [4]. - The company has faced challenges with its Family Dollar brand, which struggled with a broader merchandising approach, leading to declining sales and profitability [5]. Strategic Moves - Dollar Tree announced the sale of its Family Dollar chain for $1 billion to a private equity group, expected to close soon, providing a significant cash infusion and streamlining operations [5][6]. - The sale comes amid uncertainties from proposed U.S. trade policy changes, with Dollar Tree estimating an additional $20 million in monthly costs due to tariffs on imported goods [6]. Financial Performance - In Q1, Dollar Tree reported an 11.6% year-over-year increase in net revenue, driven by a 5.4% rise in comparable sales and the opening of 148 new stores [7]. - The company achieved adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.26, up 2.4% from the previous year, supported by strong performance in discretionary merchandise categories [8]. Future Outlook - Dollar Tree expects comparable sales growth of 3% to 5% for the full year, with an EPS target of $5.15 to $5.65, slightly below the previous year's $5.51 due to tariff costs and Family Dollar sale expenses [9]. - The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18, which is below the average of around 25 from 2020 to 2023, suggesting potential undervaluation [10]. Competitive Landscape - Dollar Tree faces intense competition from larger rivals like Dollar General and Walmart, which could impact its market share and sales growth [12]. - The lack of a major digital strategy may hinder Dollar Tree's ability to compete effectively in the increasingly important e-commerce segment [12]. Economic Considerations - Economic uncertainties, such as a potential trade war escalation or rising unemployment, could pose significant challenges to Dollar Tree's sales estimates [13].

Joining us right now is Steve Eisman. He is the host of the Real Eisman Playbook podcast. He's also former senior portfolio manager at Newberger Burman.And uh Steve, we always love having you in. Thank you for having me again. Thanks for coming in to talk today.We just teased that you are not worried at this point about uh the Fed. You're not really focused on the deficit at this point. What are you focused on.Uh two things. The tariffs and the potential for a trade war, I think, is really the only risk to ...

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is positioned as a strong investment opportunity in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of ongoing trade tensions and market volatility [3][4][5]. Group 1: Company Positioning - TSMC controls nearly 80% of the global chip supply chain, providing significant shareholder benefits and a strong competitive advantage [4]. - The company has gross profit margins of just under 60% over the past 12 months, indicating robust pricing power and market share dominance [5]. - TSMC reports returns on invested capital (ROIC) rates of up to 22%, which is a critical metric for value investors [6]. Group 2: Market Performance - Following a significant decline in stock prices during the "Liberation Day" announcement in April 2025, TSMC's stock recovered in less than 90 days, trading within 94% of its 52-week high [11]. - The current stock price is $211.07, with a 12-month price forecast of $217.00, indicating a potential upside of 2.81% [12]. - Institutional capital inflow into TSMC reached up to $8.3 billion in the most recent quarter, reflecting strong investor interest [13]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings - TSMC has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, with a high forecast price of $250.00 and a low forecast of $170.00 [12][13]. - Analyst Simon Coles from Barclays has reiterated an Overweight rating on TSMC, setting a valuation target of up to $240 per share, suggesting an additional upside potential of 12% [13].

Economists say that President Trump's big, beautiful tax bill comes with a $3 trillion price tag over the next few months. But the White House says the opposite is true. So here to break down the disconnect, we've got Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance, Ben Worshko.Ben, what have you been able to dig into with the details here. Yeah. Yeah, Brad.So this is a divide that we've seen between the White House and independent economist. Treasury Secretary Besson was on Capitol Hill yesterday and you saw th ...

High-stakes trade negotiations between the U.S. and China continued into a second day Tuesday, as both sides sought to defuse a trade war that threatens both economies. https://t.co/yTY2nmI9R9 ...

[Music] There's the closing bell on Wall Street and now it's market domination overtime. Jerobic is going to be along in a moment to give us the details from today's session, but I'm going to start with the major averages here and it looks like things are taking a little bit of a leg lower as we uh close out today's session, this Monday session. The Dow now down about a point. Little changed on the day here after starting the day in the red. It's kind of made a round trip here. Uh not necessarily any specif ...