I spoke with @jvisserlabs this week to break down the latest CPI data and what it means for the Fed’s next move.We discussed artificial intelligence, including how it’s changing the way people work, learn, and create an edge in their careers.We also cover bitcoin, macro positioning, and specific companies and organizations investors should be paying attention to right now.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/S3FpWr7gvwSpotify: https://t.co/HU1Jn3FDreApple: https://t.co/pmaxKtPYvYTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro0:45 – CPI tak ...

Core Insights - Rising private healthcare costs are prompting millionaires to reconsider their living locations, as highlighted by Henley & Partners [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflation is a significant concern, with fears that it could spiral out of the Federal Reserve's control by 2026 [2][5] - Recent data indicates that while headline inflation was cooler than expected in November, it remains above the Fed's 2% target [3] Stock Market Observations - The stock market is perceived to be in a bubble, with the "Dr. X's Bubble Detector" indicating all-time high equity prices [3][5] Money Supply Dynamics - The M2 money supply has increased by $3.5 trillion over the past five years, which is viewed as a critical metric for inflation outlook [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including rate cuts and the cessation of quantitative tightening, are expected to loosen financial conditions, potentially accelerating price growth [6] Factors Contributing to Inflation - Several developments are identified that could exacerbate inflation in the coming year: 1. Fed rate cuts that loosen financial conditions [6] 2. The end of quantitative tightening, which previously aimed to control inflation [6] 3. Easing of lending rules, allowing banks to increase the money supply [7] 4. Increased issuance of T-bills by the US Treasury to fund government deficits, contributing to inflationary pressures [7]

Core Insights - The proposed $2,000 direct payment aims to provide immediate financial relief to American families, particularly those living paycheck to paycheck, by helping with expenses like credit card debt and savings [1][5][6] Funding Mechanism - Unlike previous COVID stimulus payments that were deficit-financed, this proposal would be funded through import duties collected from goods entering the U.S., effectively turning trade policy into financial relief for families [2][3][6] Economic Context - The timing of this proposal is notable as it comes when the economy is stronger compared to the pandemic period, with unemployment still relatively low despite rising [5][6] Short-Term Benefits - The immediate benefits of the $2,000 payment could lead to increased consumer spending, helping families manage debts and stimulating retail sectors [7][10] Economic Concerns - Economists question the necessity of such a stimulus, especially given that tariffs raise prices, which could negate the benefits of the payment [8][9] - The potential for inflationary pressure is significant, as tariffs increase consumer prices, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to manage inflation [12][13] Flaws in the Proposal - **Flaw 1**: Tariff-driven price increases could consume the stimulus, leading to a net negative for families who face higher costs despite receiving the payment [9][10][11] - **Flaw 2**: The combination of tariffs and stimulus could create a toxic economic environment, exacerbating inflation and complicating monetary policy [14] - **Flaw 3**: Tariffs may disrupt supply chains and slow economic growth, leading to reduced job creation and lower corporate earnings, ultimately undermining the benefits of the stimulus [15][16][17][18]

Economic Outlook - Navellier predicts U.S. GDP growth will exceed 5% in 2026, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts and increased investments in domestic production [2][24] - The Federal Reserve has reduced the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter percentage point at each of the past three meetings to support the jobs market [1][12] AI Investment Impact - AI spending is projected to significantly contribute to economic growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating hyperscalers will spend $533 billion in 2026, a 34% increase from 2025 [15] - Bank of America forecasts spending on AI data centers to rise from $243 billion in 2025 to $415 billion in 2026, indicating a robust investment trend [16] Trade and Manufacturing - The U.S. trade deficit improved to -$52.8 billion in September, its lowest level since early 2020, which is expected to provide a GDP tailwind as more production is brought back to the U.S. [11][9] - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) includes incentives for capital spending, encouraging domestic manufacturing and investment [7][8] Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation concerns appear exaggerated, with November CPI inflation at 2.7%, down from 3% in September, suggesting a more favorable environment for economic growth [19][20] - Bank of America projects core PCE inflation for 2026 to be around 3.1% in Q1, which may lead to further interest rate cuts if unemployment remains high [21][22][23] Overall Economic Growth Drivers - Economic growth is expected to be supported by onshoring and data center growth, with lower interest rates likely stimulating interest rate-sensitive sectors such as automotive and housing [24]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) report indicated that inflation rose less than expected, with a 0.2% increase over the two months from September to November and a year-over-year increase of 2.7% [8] - Core inflation, averaged over the past three months and annualized, is reported at 1.6%, reflecting the effectiveness of the Trump administration's policies to enhance aggregate supply and lower prices [4][7] - The CPI report was praised as "astonishingly good," with comparisons drawn to previous economic conditions during Trump's first term, where growth and inflation were similarly favorable [7] Economic Performance - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that core prices, excluding volatile items like gasoline and food, rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, aligning with economists' expectations [9] - Despite the positive CPI report, consumers are still experiencing price increases, particularly in food, which rose by 2.6% compared to the previous year, along with higher costs in energy, transportation, and housing [10] Job Market - The U.S. added 64,000 jobs in November following a loss of 105,000 jobs in October, indicating a recovery in the job market [5]

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - CPI数据低于预期，但美联储更关注劳动力市场，通胀可能在明年超过3%，但总体风险在劳动力方面[1] - 汽油价格处于四年低位，工资下降，通胀互换处于年度低点，市场预期美联储明年可能不会降息[1] - AI是潜在的通货紧缩力量，可能限制工资增长，并对劳动力市场产生长期影响[1][2] - 市场出现轮动，资金从成长股转向价值股，从小盘股转向大盘股，这种轮动可能预示着PMI指数上升[2] - 预计被市场遗忘的股票将跑赢拥挤的领头羊，AI基础设施股赚钱难度加大，视觉语言模型（VLM）将成为关注点[2] - 数据中心建设、AI发展和同步升级周期将推动PMI指数上升，但如果大型科技公司表现不佳，可能导致市场出现20%的回调风险[2] Investment Opportunities & Risks - 看好Tesla，认为它将是Mag 7中表现最好的股票，同时Nvidia和Apple也将表现出色，不看好超大规模企业和基于代码构建的公司[2] - Oracle面临风险，因其资产负债表使用方式和收入不足以抵消风险，但相信其收入将在明年加速增长[3] - 传统金融公司Cisco将受益于AI驱动的流量和网络安全需求增长，稳定币交易量增加也将利好Bitcoin[46][47][64] - 银行是AI交易的受益者，因为它们有能力利用AI取代知识型员工，制药公司也在向AI药物发现转型[49][51] - 比特币需要连续三天收于92,000美元上方才能改变下行趋势，AI吸走了本应流入加密货币的资金，但这种情况将在今年开始改变[57][63] AI & Technological Disruption - AI代理正在攻击知识型员工，个人需要成为AI原生，利用AI代理，而不是被AI代理取代[5][6] - 法律公司采用AI的动机可能是为了显得具有AI能力，但实际使用率可能不高，因为效率提高可能会减少按小时计费的收入[4] - 投资者在公开市场中缺乏参与AI趋势的途径，与私人市场相比，公开市场中可投资的AI公司数量不足[39][41] - AI的真正价值在于视觉语言模型（VLM），而不是传统的人工智能，Tesla是一家AI公司，因为它需要计算机视觉来实现机器人出租车和人形机器人[49][46]

Market Overview - Markets experienced moderate gains due to softer inflation data and stable unemployment, which renewed investor confidence in a potential 2026 rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 advanced, supported by broad-based sector strength, while the Nasdaq Composite rebounded, led by a tech recovery [2] Earnings Highlights - Micron Technology Inc. exceeded expectations and raised its guidance, leading to a rally in AI-related semiconductor stocks [3] - Nike Inc. shares declined after the company expressed caution regarding global demand, particularly in China, raising concerns about consumer strength [3] - FedEx Corp. reported solid quarterly results, enhancing confidence in global shipping demand, while Carnival Corp. provided optimistic forward guidance, indicating strong consumer appetite for travel [4] Sector Performance - Cyclical and dividend-paying stocks gained traction as portfolio managers positioned for a potentially lower-rate environment in 2026 [3] - Transportation and travel sectors showed resilience, with FedEx and Carnival Corp. signaling robust demand and strong bookings [4] Notable Stock Movements - Cannabis stocks, including Tilray Brands Inc. and Canopy Growth Corp., rallied following reports of potential rescheduling of marijuana by President Trump, which could ease tax burdens [6] - Carnival Corporation reported record earnings and reinstated its quarterly dividend, forecasting adjusted net income of about $3.5 billion for 2026, reflecting strong demand [7] - Caterpillar Inc. emerged as the top-performing Dow stock in 2025, rising over 62% and adding approximately $1.7 billion in value to significant stakeholders [8] Market Sentiment - JPMorgan Chase indicated that the generative-AI narrative has peaked, suggesting that 2026 will focus more on profits rather than hype, with investors likely to favor companies demonstrating clear ROI [9] - Meta Platforms Inc. is noted as the most underperforming stock among the Magnificent 7, trading about 19% below its 52-week high, with potential for a year-end rebound [10][11] - Novo Nordisk A/S faced challenges as Eli Lilly and Co. gained market share in the weight-loss drug sector, leading to a decline in Novo's stock [12]

Core Insights - The decision to claim Social Security is crucial as it affects monthly payments and guarantees income for life [2] - Retirement savings, such as a $2 million IRA, can be impacted by market fluctuations, potentially reducing the amount available for long-term needs [3] - Annuities are presented as an alternative source of guaranteed income in retirement, similar to Social Security [4] Group 1: Social Security and Retirement Income - Social Security benefits are guaranteed for life, making the choice of when to claim them significant [2] - Market downturns can severely affect retirement savings, leading to potential asset liquidation at a loss [3] Group 2: Annuities as an Investment Option - Annuities provide guaranteed lifetime income, similar to Social Security, but come with high fees and surrender charges [7] - Fixed annuities offer predictable payments without market risk, while variable annuities may better keep pace with inflation [6] - Understanding the benefits and drawbacks of annuities is essential before making a purchase [7]

Economic Overview - The US experienced a period of prosperity and social progress with low unemployment and a booming economy [1] - A serious financial crisis emerged, with overvalued houses and potential mortgage problems [2] - The economic recovery proceeded at a moderate pace, slower than expected, with a manufacturing recession due to the collapse in oil prices [3] - The COVID-19 pandemic caused a rapid shutdown of the economy and the largest unemployment rate since the Great Depression [5] - Inflation started to take hold, leading to nervousness and unhappiness about economic situations [5] Monetary Policy and Fiscal Spending - Interest rates are surprisingly low despite high budget deficits and debt [7] - The US spent too little during the financial crisis and too much during COVID-19 [9] - Running $2 trillion deficits in a growing economy is not advisable [9] - The benefits of economic stimulus tended to favor those with capital [10] - The Federal Reserve focused on getting inflation up by 01%-02% before realizing inflation was not dead [13] Inflation and Globalization - Globalization, particularly China's entry into the WTO, and increased immigration kept inflation down for two decades after 2000 [15][16] - COVID-19 and restrictions on immigration have put upward pressure on goods prices and wage inflation [17] - De-globalization and immigration restrictions could drive wages up, while AI's impact remains uncertain [17][18] European Economy - The Eurozone crisis, triggered by imbalances, led to painful adjustments in countries like Portugal, Greece, Spain, and Ireland, but also some convergence [24] - The EU is slowly moving towards fiscal coordination, but politics lags behind economics [25][26] - Brexit has negatively impacted the UK economy, potentially reducing GDP by 5%-7% [27][28] - Europe's growth rate is projected to be no more than 1%, possibly around 05% per year [30]

Core Insights - Affordability has emerged as a significant issue in the U.S., impacting political dynamics and public sentiment, particularly in the context of the upcoming midterm elections [2][4][5] Economic Conditions - Inflation has decreased to 3.0% as of September, down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, yet food prices have surged by 18.2% since January 2022 [5][6] - The food insecurity rate in the U.S. stands at 14.2% as of November, indicating a growing concern over access to affordable food [5] Household Financial Strain - A survey revealed that 43% of six-figure earners skip social events to avoid costs, and 40% utilize buy now pay later (BNPL) services for purchases under $100 [3] - Nearly half (48%) of high earners over $200,000 have pretended their payment apps were malfunctioning to avoid payments, highlighting the pressure to maintain an appearance of financial stability [4] Housing Market Challenges - Homeownership has become increasingly unaffordable, with urban homeowners needing an annual income of $118,300, an increase of 87.5% from pre-pandemic levels [6] - Rural areas have seen an even larger increase of 105.8% in the income required to afford a typical home [6] Rising Costs of Living - The average monthly energy bill has increased by 35%, from $196 to $265, from March 2022 to June 2025, contributing to financial strain for many households [8] - The cost of raising a child has reached an annual average of $29,419, with infant care costs exceeding rent in many metropolitan areas [9] Health Care Expenses - Workers are expected to see health coverage paycheck deductions rise by 6% to 7% in 2026, alongside increased out-of-pocket expenses due to higher deductibles and copays [11] Consumer Behavior - Many Americans are adjusting their spending habits, with 64% of respondents indicating that a six-figure income is now viewed as "survival mode" rather than a sign of wealth [4] - The financial reality for many families is leading to difficult decisions regarding childcare and family planning, as seen in anecdotal accounts from individuals earning over $100,000 [10]