Global Fixed Income Outlook - The current global fixed income landscape is characterized by rising yields, particularly influenced by the Bank of Japan's recent actions, with Japan's 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 1999 and France's 30-year yields at their highest since 2009 [1][3] - The Federal Reserve remains in an easing mode, with future rate cuts dependent on inflation and labor market conditions, while the European Central Bank appears to have paused its rate cuts [2][3] Investment Opportunities - There is a growing value in global bonds as interest rate differentials shrink, making non-US dollar denominated bonds more attractive for investors who previously found little incentive to invest globally [4][8] - US-based investors are encouraged to consider global bonds for diversification and potential strong performance, especially if the dollar weakens [8] Market Dynamics and Projections - The recent CPI report has led to market speculation about the Fed's next moves, with expectations for a potential rate cut in March now above 50% [9][10] - The labor market remains a critical focus, with concerns about job losses and rising unemployment rates potentially influencing the Fed's outlook and future rate cuts [16][18]

Group 1 - The importance of investing retirement savings to ensure growth that outpaces inflation [1] - Common mistakes to avoid when investing in IRA or 401(k) plans in 2026 [2] - Investing too conservatively can lead to insufficient retirement savings, with a comparison of potential outcomes based on different investment strategies [3][4][5] Group 2 - The risks of selling off assets during stock market downturns and the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective [6][8] - Recommendations for managing investments based on proximity to retirement, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach [9]

Economic Sentiment and Inflation Metrics - The final December reading for the University of Michigan sentiment index decreased to 52.9%, marking the weakest level since November's 51 [1] - Current conditions also saw a decline, with the index dropping to 50.4%, setting a new all-time low, previously at 50.7% [2] - Expectations fell to 54.6%, the weakest since November when it was 51 [3] - The one-year inflation rate increased slightly to 4.2%, while the 5 to 10-year inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.2% [3] Market Reaction - Despite the weaker-than-expected economic data, equity markets, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average, reached new session highs [4] - The University of Michigan sentiment index has not aligned with typical correlations to equity market movements [4]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets opened higher on December 19, 2025, following a volatile week, with major indexes buoyed by cooler-than-expected inflation data for November, raising hopes for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in the new year [1][2] - The S&P 500 Index opened at 6,792.62 points, up 17.86 points or 0.26 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index opened at 23,121.90 points, up 115.54 points or 0.50 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at 47,974.82 points, up 22.97 points or 0.05 percent [2] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point to a range of 3.50%-3.75% during its final meeting of 2025, but further cuts are not guaranteed without significant weakening in the job market [3] - Economic reports are expected to be viewed with skepticism due to distortions caused by a recent government shutdown [3][4] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include Final GDP q/q, Core PCE Price Index, Existing Home Sales, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, which are critical for assessing inflation and consumer behavior [4] Quadruple Witching Impact - "Quadruple witching" is occurring today, with a record $7.1 trillion in options expiring, which could lead to increased market volatility [5] Corporate Developments - Oracle (ORCL) shares rose 5.5% on news of a potential joint venture with ByteDance for TikTok's U.S. operations, granting American investors a controlling stake [6] - Micron Technology (MU) shares jumped nearly 5% after a strong earnings report, with a 10% surge the previous day, driven by demand for AI memory solutions [7] - Nike (NKE) shares fell over 10% due to weaker-than-expected revenue from China and higher tariffs impacting gross margins [8] - FedEx (FDX) reported revenue of $23.47 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $4.82, but shares remained flat [9] - Winnebago (WGO) shares soared 12% after strong fiscal first-quarter results and an increased full-year outlook [9] - Darden Restaurants (DRI) reported second-quarter revenue of $3,102.1 million, exceeding estimates, leading to a 1.8% rise in shares [10] - Cintas Corporation (CTAS) shares gained 1.3% after reporting earnings of $1.21 per share, beating expectations [10] - Enerpac Tool Group Corp. (EPAC) shares declined 8.8% after missing earnings estimates [10] Global Economic Developments - The Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, contributing to a rise in global shares [11]

Carnival Cruise - Carnival Cruise reported a mixed quarter with adjusted EPS of 34 cents, exceeding expectations of 25 cents per share [1][2] - Revenue for the quarter was $6.33 billion, slightly below the expected $6.36 billion, but annual revenue reached an all-time high of over $26.5 billion, marking the best year in the company's history [2] - Demand remains strong as consumers are willing to pay higher prices for cruises, with 2026 bookings already matching 2025's record levels [3][4] - The company is improving profitability per passenger while keeping expenses in check, with enhanced fuel efficiency contributing to lower costs [5] - Carnival's balance sheet has improved, with reduced debt leading to a stronger financial position and lower borrowing costs, now considered investment grade by credit rating agencies [6][7] KB Home - KB Home faced challenges in the housing sector, with shares down 6% despite beating expectations with adjusted EPS of $1.92 against a forecast of $1.79 [9] - Revenue was reported at $1.7 billion, exceeding the expected $1.66 billion, but profits and volumes are significantly lower than the previous year due to higher mortgage rates and affordability pressures [10] - The company anticipates 2026 housing revenue to be between $5.6 billion and $6.1 billion, aligning with Wall Street estimates, but acknowledges ongoing challenges in consumer confidence and market conditions [11][12] Lamb Weston - Lamb Weston reported adjusted EPS of 69 cents, better than expected, but revenue of $1.62 billion showed only a 1% year-over-year increase [14] - The company is experiencing margin pressure and pricing challenges, with lower prices offsetting volume gains and rising input costs squeezing profitability [15] - Management is attempting to cut prices to maintain market share in North America, but this strategy is impacting near-term profitability [15][16]

Economic Outlook - The administration anticipates the largest tax refund cycle in U.S. history, with significant refund checks expected for many Americans [1][2] - Families are projected to save between $11,000 and $20,000 annually due to tax changes [2] Wage Growth and Inflation - Real wages for typical workers are reportedly growing at a rate of about 2% to 2.5%, with a 3.7% increase in wages against a 1.6% core inflation rate [4] - Blue-collar workers have seen an estimated raise of nearly $2,000 this year after accounting for inflation [4] Economic Sentiment - Despite concerns from the public, with 44% feeling financially strained and 74% rating the economy poorly, the administration maintains a positive outlook on economic growth [4] - The administration's strategy focuses on increasing aggregate supply to exert downward pressure on prices, similar to trends observed during Trump's first term [6]

Core Insights - The inflation report released recently came in lower than expected, indicating a continuation of the disinflationary process, although some data may have been distorted due to technical factors related to data collection [2][3][4] - The unemployment rate has edged up to around 4.5%, with steady job gains in the private sector, suggesting a gradual cooling of the labor market without signs of sharp deterioration [10][11][12] - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy is seen as well-positioned, with a focus on gathering more data before making further decisions on interest rates [14][16][47] Inflation and Employment - The CPI data showed some positive signs, but technical factors may have pushed the reading down by approximately 0.1% [5][6] - The unemployment rate's increase may also be attributed to data collection issues, potentially boosting the rate by about 0.1% [10][11] - The overall labor reports are consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market, with no indications of sharp declines [11][12] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is not currently in a hurry to change interest rates, as the data does not indicate an urgent need for action [16][46] - The neutral interest rate is estimated to be slightly below 1%, with the current stance of monetary policy being mildly restrictive [20][22] - Future interest rate adjustments will depend on sustained inflation rates returning to 2% and the overall economic performance [47][48] Economic Growth Projections - GDP growth for the current year is projected to be between 1.5% and 1.75%, with expectations of growth picking up to around 2.25% next year due to factors like AI investment and strong financial conditions [24][25] - The potential for higher productivity growth from AI is viewed as a favorable tailwind for the economy, which could help achieve inflation targets without harming the labor market [27][28][29] AI and Labor Market Dynamics - The rise of AI is expected to create strong demand for labor in certain sectors while potentially displacing jobs in others, but it is not seen as a cause for structural unemployment [33][34] - The Federal Reserve is monitoring the balance between supply and demand in the labor market as AI continues to evolve [32][33] - Concerns about systemic risks from AI investments are acknowledged, but the focus remains on understanding the current economic landscape [35][36]

>> WHY DON'T WE GET OVER TO STEVE LIESMAN. HE'S GOT A VERY SPECIAL GUEST THIS MORNING. A SPECIAL INTERVIEW WITH NEW YORK FED PRESIDENT JOHN WILLIAMS.STEVE. >> ANDREW. THANK YOU.YES, I AM HERE AT THE NEW YORK FED WHERE I'VE BEEN. WE DON'T KNOW HOW MANY YEARS IN A ROW NOW, BUT SEVERAL WITH PRESIDENT JOHN WILLIAMS FOR A TRADITIONAL DECEMBER HOLIDAY INTERVIEW. WELL, WELCOME BACK, STEVE.THANKS. AND JOHN, I WAS JUST REMARKING ABOUT HOW GREAT OUR TEAMS ARE WHO SCHEDULED THIS MONTHS IN ADVANCE, KNEW THERE WOULD BE ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 is expected to experience growth in the upcoming year due to a combination of slowing inflation, a more dovish Federal Reserve chair, and continued positive U.S. GDP growth, despite a decline in enthusiasm surrounding AI [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The equity market serves as a powerful mechanism for wealth creation or destruction over the long term through daily price fluctuations [1] - The current market conditions are favorable for growth, driven by macroeconomic factors [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - Pacifica Yield aims to focus on long-term wealth creation by targeting undervalued high-growth companies, high-dividend stocks, REITs, and green energy firms [1]

Inflation Analysis - CPI data shows encouraging signs of disinflation, but some technical factors related to data collection issues in October and early November may have distorted the headline CPI reading, potentially pushing it down by approximately 01% [3][4][5] - The distortion is attributed to data collection occurring primarily in the second half of November when sales are prevalent, and issues with rent data [6] - The industry awaits further data in the next month or two to better assess the impact of these technical factors on inflation readings [7][8] Labor Market Assessment - Employment reports indicate steady job gains, particularly in the private sector, and moderate growth [9] - Technical factors related to data collection in October may have temporarily boosted the unemployment rate in November, potentially by around 01%, suggesting an adjusted unemployment rate of approximately 45% [10] - The labor market is experiencing a gradual cooling, with no signs of a sharp deterioration [11] Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is currently well-positioned to gather more information and assess the economic outlook and risks to achieving employment and price stability goals [14] - Current data is broadly consistent with patterns observed, supporting the decision to cut interest rates at the last meeting, but is not yet a "game changer" [13] - The Federal Reserve is aiming to stabilize the labor market and bring inflation down to 2% without causing undue harm to the labor market, indicating a balancing act [16] Neutral Rate Discussion - The real interest rate, adjusted for inflation, is estimated to be around 1% to 125%, which is within the range of neutral rate estimates [19] - The speaker's personal view is that the neutral rate is likely a bit below 1%, suggesting that monetary policy is still mildly restrictive [20]