Let's bring in our next guest. We're going to talk about trade, tariff agreements, everything that we've been hearing this morning. Roger Altman is the founder and senior chairman of Evercore ISI.And Roger, thanks for coming in this morning. >> Thanks for having me. >> We were just looking at some of the energy stocks with Dom um that are trading up pretty sharply on what Europe is potentially going to be buying in terms of of of energy deals from the United States.But it's not just that. It's also defense ...

The Fed's going to be meeting this week uh with pressure mounting of course from the president to lower interest rates. Joining us right now, former federal vice chair uh Roger Ferguson. He's also a CNBC contributor.Good morning to you on this Monday morning, Roger. Um I don't think anybody expects J. Powell to lower interest rates.I don't know if you have a different view or you think something else is going to come, not just this week, but what we're going to see in the rest of the year. So certainly I ag ...

Not based on what we've seen so far. He does have the ability, if there's a causal reason, to fire Jay Powell, to fire Jay Powell. But I think what yesterday's visit made clear is he's nowhere close to satisfying that legal standard.The very fact that we saw him try to trump up an inflated cost estimate based on trying to bring in a third building was in many ways a concession by the president that he really didn't have the case that he needed for removal. So I think right now, Powell and the Fed, you feel ...

All right, let me just talk to you about the broader market. I mean, you know, it's very important to note out the NASDAQ and the S&P, they're both at record highs, double digit record highs this year so far. So, is the the concern about tariffs in the market, has it maybe been overblown.>> I don't think so. Uh, if you take out technology and communication uh sectors out of the S&P, earnings are only up less than 1% so far with revenue growth at about 3%, which is in line with nominal GDP, give or take. So ...

The US reporting season is off to a strong start, but it would be premature to write off the impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate earnings, according to RBC Capital Markets strategists https://t.co/PnCh9sgwo8 ...

Policy Watch Global Markets Research Economics - North America July FOMC Preview Research Analysts North America Economics David Seif - NSI david.seif@nomura.com +1 212 667 9180 Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com +1 212 667 9347 Jeremy Schwartz - NSI jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com +1 212 667 9637 Ruchir Sharma - NSI ruchir.sharma@nomura.com +1 212 667 9186 Jacklyn Goloborodsky - NSI jacklyn.goloborodsky@nomura.com Fig. 1: The FOMC will likely keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.375% at the July meetin ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The banking industry is currently benefiting from moderate inflation, which is expected to expand interest margins, alleviate debt pressure, and promote corporate profitability and household income growth, thereby driving economic recovery and enhancing collateral value, which reduces asset risks for banks [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Recent financial reports from commercial banks have shown positive performance, reflecting market optimism regarding their growth. Social loan growth is around 7% to 8%, and social financing growth is approximately 8%, indicating rapid business expansion. If interest margins remain stable and bad debts do not worsen, profit growth is expected to match the business expansion rate, potentially reaching around 8% [1][4]. - High-quality small banks may achieve even higher growth rates, with some expected to exceed 20% [4]. - The valuation of bank stocks should consider price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and dividend yields. Currently, the average P/E ratio for bank stocks is about 7 times, with a dividend yield of approximately 4%. If banks can achieve higher growth, their valuations should increase accordingly [5]. - Historical data shows that bank stocks perform well during economic recovery and rising inflation phases. For instance, the rise in Chinese bank stocks at the end of 2022 was primarily due to a decrease in bad debt ratios [6][7]. Important Insights - The experience of Japan, the United States, and India indicates that a decline in bad debts typically leads to significant increases in bank stock prices, often outperforming their respective market indices. High inflation and rapid economic growth are particularly favorable for the financial sector [8][10]. - In China, the current decline in bad debt ratios since the end of 2022 suggests that if inflation rises and economic recovery occurs, city commercial banks will have greater growth potential. Notable banks to watch include Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Ningbo Bank [11][12]. - Qilu Bank's latest performance report shows a revenue increase of 5.76% and a net profit growth of 16.48%, with improvements in net interest income and attention loan ratios, indicating a positive outlook for its future development [13]. Additional Considerations - The overall performance of other listed banks in the first half of 2025 has been satisfactory, with many exceeding expectations. The industry’s net profit growth has slightly declined, primarily due to bond market impacts, but bad debt ratios remain stable [16]. - The investment by CITIC Financial Assets in Everbright Bank, which has led to significant improvements in its financial statements, highlights the potential for stable returns through strategic investments [17][18]. - In the current environment, banks with a cyclical focus may present more opportunities, especially those with high non-interest income ratios, as inflation and internal circulation logic begin to reflect in the data [19].

Wage Growth & Inflation - Wage growth for many Americans lags behind inflation [1] - Low- and middle-paying job holders are likely experiencing the most financial strain [1]

There should be much more pressure on the public companies that are leaving their shareholders' economic value in US dollars and treasuries so they can melt away with time.The US dollar has lost about 30% of its purchasing power since 2020.How much value destruction has to happen before shareholders have had enough? ...

Back-to-School Shopping Trends - Two-thirds of American families with school-aged children have already started back-to-school shopping [2] - The National Retail Federation estimates an average household will spend approximately $858 on back-to-school items [5] - Spending includes electronics, clothing/accessories ($250-$300 each), shoes, and school supplies [5] Financial Concerns - 39% of Americans report they cannot afford back-to-school shopping [6] - 44% of Americans plan to incur debt to purchase school supplies [6] Impact of Tariffs and Inflation - Shoppers are buying early due to concerns that tariffs will further increase prices [2] - Back-to-school essentials like backpacks and pencils are noticeably more expensive than last year due to inflation [3] - Producer Price Index indicates price increases in categories like luggage, pencils, marking devices, and tablets, with increases exceeding 15% [8] - The current tariff rate on goods from China is 30% [9] Recommendations - Avoid panic buying, as the implementation of new tariffs may take months [10]