And that's how bringing another voice to this conversation. Bartlett's Holly Mazaka and also Wells Fargo's Scott Ren as well. Uh you guys both heard what we just spoke about with Lauren here.So I'm going to go with you Holly first on this one as you talk about the markets at or near record highs. Again, Lauren laid out the case for that broadening out trade. Also this idea that we're watching those certain key parts of the market.Is this still a trade that is contingent upon names like Nvidia, Microsoft, Ap ...

Group 1 - The market has experienced a significant rally, up 35% since April, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth and the potential for future rate cuts [1][4][5] - There is ambiguity regarding whether the market anticipates a rate cut due to the Federal Reserve's ability or necessity, influenced by uneven labor market data [2][3] - Projections suggest a trough in growth towards the end of the year, with GDP expected to stabilize around 1.5% by 2026, alongside a peak in inflation [3][5] Group 2 - The AI trade is highlighted as a dominant factor in market performance, potentially overshadowing macroeconomic and interest rate influences [4] - There is a notable presence of skeptics regarding the near-term durability of the market rally, which could be beneficial for long-term stability [5] - If the market were to ignore a potential rate cut announcement, it could indicate overconfidence and increase the likelihood of a market pullback in October [6]

For more, let's bring in Julian Emanuel. He is Evercore ISI's senior managing director and strategist there. Julian, it's great to great to see you.Um, I guess it's hard to argue with that point, right. This is a a kind of insurance or good news or normalization rate cut program from here on out if we get a full program. Um, to what degree is that enough at this point now that the market's up, you know, 35% since April.>> So, actually, when we think about it, there's two ways of looking at it. In the here a ...

Core Insights - The upcoming earnings season for S&P 500 firms is expected to be strong, with analysts increasing earnings per share (EPS) forecasts significantly [1][4] Group 1: Earnings Season Expectations - Analysts have boosted EPS forecasts for S&P 500 member firms, indicating a potentially strong earnings season [1] - July and August marked the first time since Q2 2024 that analysts raised aggregate EPS forecasts in the initial two months of a quarter [4] Group 2: ETF Opportunities - Investors may consider Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM) as potential beneficiaries of the upcoming earnings season, particularly due to strong performances from Nvidia and Broadcom [2][4] - Nvidia and Broadcom together account for nearly 15% of the holdings in QQQ and QQQM, suggesting these ETFs could be poised for success during earnings updates [2] Group 3: Sector Performance - Five out of eleven sectors saw an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimates for Q3 2025, with Information Technology (+4.4%), Energy (+4.0%), and Communication Services (+2.6%) leading the way [5] - Conversely, the Health Care sector experienced a significant decrease in EPS estimates (-7.2%), while Utilities showed no change [5] - The technology and communication services sectors, which make up about 79% of QQQ and QQQM, are expected to contribute positively to EPS growth [5] Group 4: Full-Year Earnings Revisions - Positive signs for full-year earnings revisions are noted in sectors like communication services and consumer discretionary, which together represent over 29% of the ETFs' portfolios [6][7] - Seven sectors increased their bottom-up EPS estimates for CY 2025, with Communication Services (+4.0%), Financials (+3.3%), and Consumer Discretionary (+3.0%) leading the increases [7]

Group 1 - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a possibility of a 50 basis point cut being viewed as a "sell the news" event [2][12][5] - The current economic indicators show a weakening job market, with high claims and low job growth, which may influence the Fed's decision [3][5] - Sectors such as real estate and private equity are expected to benefit from a lower rate environment, while small caps may face challenges if economic conditions worsen [6][21][20] Group 2 - The Russell 2000 index is experiencing significant gains, indicating a potential catch-up trade for small caps, despite concerns about economic slowdown [9][15][19] - The performance of small caps is closely tied to capital market conditions, and lower rates could provide necessary support for refinancing [19][20] - The overall sentiment suggests that while there may not be a recession, small caps could struggle if consumer fundamentals deteriorate further [22][21]

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its implications for interest rates and market performance, particularly in the context of AI-related stocks and overall economic sentiment [3][4][6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's September meeting is critical, as it will provide insights into future interest rate cuts, with expectations of at least one cut unless retail sales data is significantly weak [3][4]. - There is speculation about potential dissent within the Fed regarding the decision to cut rates, indicating differing views on the economic outlook [4][6]. - The market is currently pricing in expectations for rate cuts, with discussions around whether a 50 basis point cut would be perceived positively or negatively [6][8]. Market Performance and Trends - Year-to-date winners like Micron, Oracle, and Tesla are highlighted, with a suggestion that instead of tax loss selling, there may be a chase for performance as year-end approaches [9][10]. - AI and AI-related stocks are expected to remain strong, driven by market sentiment and performance concerns as the year closes [10][11]. - Small-cap stocks, which are sensitive to interest rate expectations, are also anticipated to perform well if the Fed continues to signal cuts [11]. Economic Sentiment - Concerns about stagflation are mentioned, with a focus on the balance between inflation and economic growth [11][12]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is debated, with some arguing that the effects are overstated and should not lead to tighter monetary policy [13][14]. - Recent consumer sentiment data is not seen as a major concern for the market, suggesting a divergence between consumer expectations and broader economic indicators [12][14].

Core Insights - The current economic slowdown and diminishing enthusiasm for AI-related stocks may lead to a market pullback [1] Economic Conditions - The economy is showing signs of faltering, which could negatively impact stock performance [1] - Concerns about inflation and interest rates are contributing to the economic uncertainty [1] AI Sector Performance - The AI trade, which had previously driven significant market gains, is now losing momentum [1] - Companies heavily invested in AI technologies are facing challenges, leading to a reevaluation of their stock valuations [1] Market Implications - A potential pullback in stock prices could occur if the economic conditions do not improve [1] - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of the changing dynamics in both the economy and the AI sector [1]

Group 1 - The "AI trade" has driven Wall Street to record highs, with Oracle's share price surging 36% due to increased demand for its cloud services from AI firms, raising its market value to $922 billion [1][2][3] - Oracle's impressive gains reflect the dominance of AI in the market, despite some pullbacks, while the "Magnificent Seven" stocks have faced challenges this year [2][3] - Oracle is now among the top 10 most valuable companies on Wall Street, alongside other AI leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon [3] Group 2 - Nvidia has become the world's most valuable company, surpassing Microsoft and Apple, although its stock price has dipped slightly following a less optimistic sales forecast [4] - The technology sector has shown resilience, with a more than 16% increase in 2025, following a period of caution regarding the AI trade [5] - Oracle has secured four multi-billion-dollar contracts, capitalizing on the industry's shift towards significant investments in AI computing capacity [6]

Economic Indicators - The focus is shifting from inflation reports to jobs reports, with expectations that inflation numbers will decrease [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is emphasizing its dual mandate, prioritizing jobs data over inflation metrics [2][4] Market Sentiment - There is a belief that risky assets may be vulnerable due to tariff-induced inflation, which could impact the Fed's easing path [4] - The upcoming CPI release is seen as a significant risk event for the market [4] Technology Sector - Oracle's strong performance has positively influenced AI-focused stocks, alleviating concerns about concentration risk in mega-cap tech [7][8] - The AI trade is still in its early stages, with expectations for broader participation beyond just chip stocks [9][10] European Market Outlook - European markets are viewed as attractive, with a focus on defense and infrastructure investments as long-term opportunities [12][13] - Valuations in Europe are considered more supportive compared to the US market, with a recommendation to focus on defense stocks [14] Investment Strategies - A Wisdom Tree ETF focused on high dividends and buybacks is highlighted as a strategic investment, offering a close to 7% shareholder yield [15][16] - The defensive nature of dividend-paying companies is emphasized as a counterbalance to the tech sector's volatility [16]

Market Overview - The current market momentum is characterized by record highs in the NASDAQ and S&P 500, but market internals are weak, with a significant number of stocks underperforming [2][3] - The S&P 100 shows a decisively negative advanced decline, indicating a challenging environment for traders [3] Target Corporation - Target has been under significant pressure, down 34% year-to-date, and is viewed as a bearish opportunity as it approaches a critical support level at $90 [4][5] - A proposed options strategy involves buying 90 puts and selling 85 puts for a $160 debit, anticipating a breakdown below the $90 level [6] Eli Lilly and Company - Eli Lilly is seen as a bullish opportunity despite being an underperformer compared to the S&P 500, with recent news indicating resilience in the pharmaceutical sector [14][15] - An options strategy involves buying 750 calls and selling 760 calls for a $4.80 debit, aiming for a quick upside based on current trends [15][16] Citigroup Inc. - Citigroup has outperformed year-to-date, up 40%, but faces a weakening economic backdrop and flattening yield curve, raising concerns about sustainability [24][25] - A bearish options strategy is proposed, involving buying a 92.5 put and selling an 82.5 put for a $1.95 debit, allowing for a longer duration to assess market conditions [26][33]