Well, Torson, let's focus on the US side of things and then we can get to a more global dimension. Let's focus on the US with the tariffs in mind. Is it too early to expect those tariffs to show up in the data this morning.No, it's not. What really is the key issue here is that there is indeed going to be some upside pressure on inflation. And what's most critical about this is that it's all about the behavior among companies.How do they respond to tariffs. Do they pass on 100%. Will they pass on 50%. Or wi ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has cut its profit forecast for the year due to higher costs from US tariffs and weak demand for its new products, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company now expects annual profit between $14.58 and $14.78 per share, down from previous expectations of $14.95 to $15.15 [6]. - Lululemon's revenue forecast for the second quarter is between $2.54 billion and $2.56 billion, which aligns with market expectations [8]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The company is facing lower store traffic in the Americas, attributed to economic uncertainty, inflation, lower consumer confidence, and changes in discretionary spending [1][3]. - Competitors like Alo Yoga and Vuori are gaining traction, making it difficult for Lululemon to boost sales despite new product offerings [3][8]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Lululemon plans to implement modest price increases on a small portion of its product assortment and will negotiate with vendors to cut costs [4]. - In 2024, 40% of Lululemon's products were manufactured in Vietnam, and 28% of its fabrics were sourced from mainland China, indicating a diversification strategy in sourcing [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) position on cash, equities, credit, and bonds, while being "Underweight" (UW) on commodities for the next three months [3][21]. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) equities have shown resilience despite tariff uncertainties, with a projected earnings growth of 10% to 11% for CY 2025/26, which is 2-3 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [2][6]. - The S&P 500 had its best May performance since 1990, outperforming EM equities year-to-date, although EM equities have generally outperformed US equities in the same period [2][7]. - A weaker US Dollar is expected to support EM outperformance, as EM equities have historically benefited from a weaker Dollar [2][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report highlights the importance of upcoming economic data and decisions from G4 central banks, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB and stable unemployment rates in the US [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500's performance in May 2025 was notably strong, while EM equities have shown positive macro surprises, contrasting with muted US macro surprises [2][9]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests a diversified approach, advocating for international diversification in equities and bonds, and highlights the potential benefits of EM equity and local rates [3][6][21]. Correlation Analysis - The correlation between MSCI EM and the US Dollar has turned more positive, indicating a decoupling of EM rates from US rates, which may provide investment opportunities [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that his retirement is "several years away," emphasizing his commitment to the bank and its future leadership planning [1][3]. Leadership and Succession - Dimon has been in his role for nearly two decades, and there has been increased scrutiny regarding succession planning as he approaches retirement age [1][5]. - Potential successors include Marianne Lake, Doug Petno, Troy Rohrbaugh, and Mary Erdoes, with Dimon indicating he may remain involved as chairman or executive chairman for a couple more years [3][10]. - Dimon previously hinted that his succession timeline was not as immediate as previously thought, which negatively impacted the bank's stock price [5]. Economic and Defense Views - Dimon has voiced strong opinions on national security, advocating for the U.S. to prioritize defense spending over cryptocurrency investments [4]. - He has been consulted by both Democratic and Republican administrations on economic policies, indicating his influence in political and economic discussions [8]. Company Developments - JPMorgan is investing in a new $3 billion headquarters in Manhattan, which reflects the bank's commitment to its future and operational strategy [12]. - Dimon is pushing for a return to in-office work, believing that remote work policies have led to decreased productivity [12].

Group 1 - KKR's Co-CEO Scott Nuttall participated in the Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference, discussing the current economic landscape and inflation concerns [1][2]. - The company acknowledges the recent volatility in the market, highlighting concerns about persistent inflation, prolonged high interest rates, and potential economic slowdown or stagflation [4]. - KKR's internal view suggests that inflation rates are expected to remain elevated for a longer period, which aligns with the company's historical perspective over its 49 years of operation [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has a long-term view on inflation and interest rates, expecting them to remain higher for longer, which aligns with historical trends [4][5][9] - The company has $116 billion of dry powder available for investment, indicating strong capital reserves for future opportunities [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private equity portfolio is marked at over 60% at more than 1.5 times the cost, while public names are marked at an average of four times the cost, reflecting strong performance [18][19] - The company has been actively exiting investments, including sales in Japan and infrastructure, contributing to a mature portfolio [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - More than 70% of the company's deployment in infrastructure over the last five years has been outside the United States, showcasing a global investment strategy [34] - The company has seen a shift in investor sentiment, with a more balanced approach to global allocations, particularly towards Europe and Asia [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on building portfolios that can navigate different economic cycles, emphasizing long-term investments [15][16] - Strategic holdings have been introduced to capture lower-risk, attractive reward investments, diversifying the company's offerings [23][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the realization outlook, citing a strong pipeline of realizations and a disciplined investment approach [15][21] - The company does not foresee significant stress in its portfolios despite macroeconomic concerns, indicating confidence in its investment strategy [12][14] Other Important Information - The company is expanding its product offerings for high-net-worth individuals through partnerships, aiming to capture a larger share of the market [45][49] - The insurance segment is expected to see growth in earnings as the business model transitions and third-party capital is raised [92][93] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the company's view on inflation and economic growth? - The company expects inflation and interest rates to remain higher for longer, which is consistent with historical trends [4][5] Question: How is the company managing its portfolio amidst macroeconomic concerns? - The company has not seen significant stress in its portfolios and feels confident due to its portfolio construction and historical experience with economic cycles [12][14] Question: What is the outlook for the company's strategic holdings? - The strategic holdings segment is designed to capture lower-risk investments with attractive returns, and the company is optimistic about its growth potential [23][25] Question: How is the company addressing client demand for alternative products? - The company is seeing significant adoption of its alternative products and is expanding its offerings to cater to high-net-worth individuals [38][45] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding direct lending and asset-based finance? - The company is actively involved in both direct lending and asset-based finance, with a focus on scaling third-party business alongside its own insurance growth [76][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong first quarter performance with 9% organic growth in 2024, and volumes in the first quarter were consistent with this trend [6][9] - The company maintained a conservative posture for 2025, guiding for revenue growth conservatively and incorporating contingencies in financial forecasts [18][20] - The company achieved positive growth of 3% in both 2022 and 2023 despite challenging macroeconomic conditions [9][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The mortgage segment is facing challenges due to rising costs and concerns about credit report pricing, but the company has maintained stable pricing practices [30][32] - The auto segment experienced a pull forward in volumes due to demand ahead of potential tariff implementations, with expectations for continued higher demand [53][55] - NuStar has shown improved revenue performance due to successful integration of marketing and fraud solutions, with organic growth between 4% and 6% since acquisition [58][60] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer credit markets are currently healthy but show signs of concern among consumers and lenders regarding future economic conditions [5][12] - In India, the company expects a return to high teen organic growth rates by the end of 2025, driven by improved lending conditions under the new RBI governor [86][90] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has diversified its portfolio significantly and integrated acquisitions to enhance its market position [9][24] - The focus on technology and workforce restructuring is expected to yield ongoing cost savings and maintain EBITDA and EPS performance [28][27] - The company is optimistic about expanding its services in emerging markets and enhancing its product offerings in response to market needs [66][70] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about potential economic downturns but emphasized the company's preparedness to weather such conditions [20][21] - The company is cautious about consumer credit origination growth for the remainder of 2025, citing mixed signals from leading indicators [11][12] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to changing economic policies and consumer behaviors to maintain growth [16][40] Other Important Information - The company is focused on enhancing its freemium product offerings to compete effectively in the consumer market [74][76] - The company has seen significant growth in breach services, although it remains lumpy due to the unpredictability of large breach events [82][83] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company positioned in a potential stagflation environment? - Management indicated that the company is well-positioned to handle stagflation due to its diversified portfolio and previous performance during similar conditions [21][24] Question: What are the expectations for consumer credit origination growth in 2025? - Management acknowledged the healthy state of consumers but noted concerns about future lending volumes due to economic uncertainties [12][14] Question: How does the company view the competitive landscape in mortgage credit reporting? - Management discussed the challenges posed by rising costs and the need for a broader reflection on mortgage origination costs [30][36] Question: What is the outlook for the auto segment? - Management confirmed that auto volumes have been consistent with guidance and expressed optimism about demand due to tariff concerns [55][56] Question: What is driving the recent success in NuStar? - Management attributed NuStar's success to the integration of services and improved market positioning following the acquisition [58][60]

The S&P 500 (^GSPC 2.05%) has rebounded 18% since hitting bottom in early April after President Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs. The index rocketed higher on Tuesday, May 27, as trade tensions eased between the European Union and the United States. But the stock market still faces several hurdles this week. Specifically, Nvidia (NVDA 3.07%) will announce its first-quarter financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, May 28, and the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes from its Ma ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted that the markets have not fully accounted for risks such as inflation, stagflation, credit spreads, tariffs, and geopolitical challenges [1] - Dimon expressed concerns about the greater likelihood of inflation and stagflation than commonly perceived, and noted that credit spreads have not factored in a potential downturn [1] - Despite economic uncertainties, JPMorgan Chase is projecting an increase in earnings from interest payments this year [2] Group 2 - JPMorgan's Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum indicated that the bank's net interest income could rise by $1 billion this year, although the full-year projection of $94.5 billion remains unchanged for now [3] - The bank anticipates a net charge-off rate for credit card debt to be between 3.6% and 3.9% for 2026, compared to an expected 3.6% for the current year [4] - Consumer confidence and small business sentiment have worsened, with over half of businesses in goods-producing sectors expecting negative impacts from tariffs, driven by supply chain disruptions and rising raw material costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart is set to increase prices on food, electronics, and toys due to rising costs from tariffs, despite a temporary reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods [2][3]. Group 1: Company Insights - Walmart, as the largest importer of container goods in the US, sources approximately 60% of its imports from China, which significantly impacts its pricing strategy [3]. - CEO Doug McMillon emphasized that Walmart cannot absorb the increased costs from higher import taxes, indicating a direct correlation between tariffs and retail pricing [2]. - The company remains focused on long-term growth, suggesting that it has historically emerged stronger from economic uncertainties [5]. Group 2: Economic Context - US consumers are already experiencing higher prices, with consumer sentiment declining for four consecutive months, raising concerns about potential decreased demand and its effects on the broader economy [4]. - Although consumer prices rose only 2.3% annually in April, experts warn that the full impact of tariffs has yet to be felt, which could lead to steeper inflation as importers pass on costs to consumers [6]. - The US Federal Reserve has indicated a likely scenario of lower growth and higher inflation, raising concerns about potential stagflation [7]. Group 3: Market Implications - The fluctuating tariff policies are expected to create volatility in consumer prices and spending patterns, affecting overall market dynamics [8].