Core Insights - The U.S. economy experienced acceleration in October despite the ongoing government shutdown [1] - Businesses reported that high tariffs are negatively impacting exports and creating uncertainty for the upcoming year [1] Economic Performance - Economic activity in October showed signs of speeding up, indicating resilience in the U.S. economy during the government shutdown [1] Business Sentiment - Companies expressed concerns that elevated tariffs are harming export activities [1] - The uncertainty created by tariffs is leading to a pessimistic outlook for the upcoming year among businesses [1]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is up +0.79%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up +0.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up +1.04% [1] - December E-mini S&P futures are up +0.68%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures are up +0.89% [1] Economic Indicators - The US CPI report for September showed a +0.3% month-over-month increase and a +3.0% year-over-year increase, which was slightly weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y [2] - The core CPI report for September also showed a +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y, which was weaker than the expected +0.2% m/m [2] - The October S&P US manufacturing PMI rose by +0.2 to 52.2, exceeding expectations of no change at 52.0 [4] - The October S&P US services PMI increased by +1.0 to 55.2, stronger than the expected decline to 53.5 [4] - The final October University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index fell by -1.4 points to 53.6, which was weaker than the expected drop to 54.5 [4] Trade Relations - President Trump announced the termination of trade negotiations with Canada, citing an anti-tariff advertisement from Ontario that he found offensive [5] - The advertisement featured former President Reagan advocating for free trade and against tariffs, which Trump claimed was deceptive [6] - Lower courts have ruled Trump's reciprocal tariffs illegal, and if upheld by the Supreme Court, the government may need to refund collected tariffs and limit Trump's tariff powers [6]

David, let's start with the inflation data. Is three, the new two, and is it going to stop this Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. I think the Fed is going to keep on kind of cutting rates is generally a better than expected report.But I think what it really shows is we have a k-shaped economy and it's sort of a k-shaped CPI report. The thing that really jumped out to me is, first of all, our rental cars coming down, there's you know, we've got a big change in demographics here and rents are. Rent ...

Deckers - Deckers shares are under heavy pressure, down approximately 14% following earnings results, adding to a 50% decline earlier this year [1] - The company reported EPS of $1.82 and revenue of $1.43 billion, both better than expected, but provided weaker guidance for 2026 sales at $5.35 billion [1] - Direct-to-consumer sales for Uggs declined by about 10%, while Hoka gained market share, indicating mixed performance [1] - The company anticipates $150 million in unmitigated expenses from tariffs, which is a headwind for the stock [1] Newmont Mining - Newmont Mining's stock is lower despite a significant earnings beat, with adjusted EPS at $1.71 and revenue up 20% to $5.5 billion [1] - The company warned of a dip in Q4 free cash flow due to construction spending in Peru and severance payments accrued in Q3 [1] - The correlation to gold prices has impacted stock performance, with a recent pullback in gold prices affecting investor sentiment [1] Procter & Gamble - Procter & Gamble shares rose by 2.25% after reporting better-than-expected earnings, driven by strong performance in beauty and grooming segments [1][2] - Beauty revenue reached $22.39 billion, with organic sales increasing and beauty sales up 6%, attributed to brands like Olay and SK2 [1] - The CFO noted a stable but challenging consumer environment, with higher-income shoppers trading up while lower-income consumers are more price-sensitive [2]

Core Insights - Proctor and Gamble reported first quarter earnings for 2026, with earnings of $1.99 per share, surpassing estimates of $1.90, and revenue of $22.4 billion, exceeding estimates of $22.2 billion [1] - The company affirmed its full-year guidance, indicating stability in its financial outlook despite flat volumes compared to the previous year and a 1% increase in pricing [1][5] Financial Performance - This marks the 40th consecutive quarter of organic sales growth for Proctor and Gamble, with eight out of ten categories maintaining or growing sales during the quarter [3] - The company is on track for its 10th consecutive year of earnings per share growth, with six out of seven regions also holding or growing sales [3] Market Environment and Challenges - Proctor and Gamble has managed to navigate tariff pressures effectively, with the anticipated headwind from tariffs reduced from $800 million to $400 million, and commodity cost pressures also halved from $200 million to $100 million [9][10] - The company noted improvements in the tariff environment, particularly due to the reduction of retaliatory tariffs in Canada and favorable policies regarding ingredient imports [7][8] Regional Performance - In China, Proctor and Gamble experienced a 6% sales increase in mainland China and a 5% increase in greater China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong, with notable growth in categories such as baby diapers and SK2 [14][15]

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) exceeded Wall Street expectations for first-quarter results, driven by strong demand for beauty and hair-care products despite economic uncertainty and higher prices [1] - The company halved its annual tariff cost estimate to approximately $400 million after tax due to Canada lifting retaliatory duties on U.S. goods, leading to a 3% increase in P&G's shares [1] Financial Performance - P&G reported core earnings per share of $1.99, surpassing estimates by 9 cents, supported by a strategy of introducing improved products at higher prices [6] - The company experienced a 50-basis-point decline in operating margins year-over-year, attributed to higher commodity costs and measures to cater to value-conscious consumers [5] Consumer Behavior - There is a bifurcation in consumer behavior, with financially stable shoppers opting for larger pack sizes while lower-income consumers are purchasing smaller packs for essential items [4] - The overall consumer environment is described as "not great, but stable," with a slight slowdown in U.S. consumption across P&G's categories [5] Pricing Strategy - P&G has raised prices in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts while lowering prices in Canada following the cancellation of retaliatory tariffs [3] - The company is facing increased discounting from competitors in the U.S. and Europe, particularly in fabric-care and baby-care products, prompting a focus on offering more affordable options [4]

Core Viewpoint - Trade tensions between the US and Canada have escalated following Ontario's government releasing an advertisement featuring former President Ronald Reagan discussing the negative impacts of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Advertisement and Its Content - Ontario's government, led by Premier Doug Ford, launched an ad on October 16, 2025, using excerpts from Reagan's 1987 speech to argue against American tariffs on Canada [1][2]. - The ad emphasizes Reagan's warning that tariffs, while appearing "patriotic," ultimately harm American workers and consumers, leading to retaliation and trade wars that can result in market collapses and job losses [1][2]. Group 2: Reactions and Controversies - The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute criticized Ontario for "misrepresenting" Reagan's remarks and stated that permission was not sought for the use of the speech [3]. - Former President Trump reacted by labeling the advertisement as "FAKE" and announced the termination of all trade negotiations with Canada, asserting the importance of tariffs for US national security and economy [8][9]. - A spokesperson for Premier Doug Ford defended the ad, claiming it used an "unedited excerpt" from Reagan's speech and reiterated that Reagan supported free trade between Canada and the US [9].

Trade & Tariffs - President Trump terminated trade negotiations with Canada following a political ad paid for by Ontario's government [1] - The Reagan Presidential Foundation is reviewing legal options regarding the use of President Reagan's voice in the ad, claiming misrepresentation [4][9] - The US has already imposed significant tariffs on Canada, a key trading partner [6] Politics & Policy - President Trump called off plans to send federal troops to San Francisco after speaking with tech leaders [9][12] - The Senate adjourned for the weekend, extending the government shutdown, impacting federal workers and low-income Americans relying on government assistance [18] - New York Attorney General Leticia James' lawyers are challenging the appointment of prosecutor Lindseay Hallan in her case, citing an unlawful appointment [24] Legal & Crime - NBA is facing gambling scandals involving the head coach of the Portland Trailblazers and a player for the Miami Heat, with allegations of leaked information and rigged poker games [34] - Operation Royal Flush details high-tech cheating in poker games, including X-ray tables and marked cards [35][37] - Operation Nothing involves potential corruption in sports betting, particularly with prop bets, raising concerns for professional sports [45][50] Weather - Tropical Storm Melissa is stationary in the central Caribbean region, expected to strengthen into a major hurricane, posing a threat to Jamaica and Haiti with potential for 15 inches of rain [52][55]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Trump has said the stock market is stronger than ever because of tariffs. https://t.co/ZHI3fRfHSk ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says the stock market is stronger than ever because of tariffs. ...