At less than 15x FCF, could Deckers stock still be a sell?Deckers Outdoor (DECK 3.20%) slipped 3.3% through 2:50 p.m. ET on Wednesday after two separate Wall Street analysts downgraded the shoemaker's stock today.In back-to-back reports, first Baird cut its rating on Deckers to neutral, then Piper Sandler downgraded Deckers to "underperform" (i.e., sell). Wall Street doubts Deckers todayQuoting from the Baird report, StreetInsider.com begins with some kind words about how Deckers might "achieve or exceed" ...

Deckers is kicking off 2026 with two fewer brands in its portfolio as the company works to focus more of its efforts on its winning Hoka and Ugg labels. Indeed, last January, Deckers’ president and chief executive officer Stefano Caroti told analysts that the company would sunset its Koolaburra so that it could place even more of a focus on its star Ugg brand. More from WWD “To maintain focus on our most significant organic opportunities, we’re planning to phase out the Koolaburra brand stand-alone prod ...

Group 1: Yeti Holdings - Yeti Holdings barely outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025 with an 18% gain, but sluggish revenue growth raises concerns about future performance [1] - The company has experienced a 35% decline in stock value over the past five years, indicating caution for investors [1][7] - Yeti Holdings has lower profit margins compared to Deckers Outdoor, which may affect its attractiveness as an investment [5] Group 2: Deckers Outdoor - Deckers Outdoor, the parent company of Hoka and Ugg, is positioned for a rebound after losing nearly half its value in 2025 [2] - The stock has more than doubled over the past five years, showcasing its potential for recovery [2] - Deckers Outdoor currently trades at a 15.4 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, despite steady revenue and net income growth rates [4] - Hoka and Ugg sales achieved double-digit year-over-year growth in Q2 FY26, with net income increasing by 11% [4] - International sales for Deckers Outdoor saw a significant 29.3% year-over-year improvement, compensating for a 1.7% decline in domestic sales [6][8] - The valuation of Deckers Outdoor is considered attractive compared to Yeti Holdings, especially given its higher growth rates and profit margins [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is expected to achieve another double-digit percentage gain in 2025, with the S&P 500 index showing a year-to-date gain of 16.81% as of December 5, despite significant declines in several individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Worst-Performing Stocks - Fiserv (FISV) has seen a decline of approximately 70%, attributed to a drastic cut in its full-year revenue forecast and slowing growth in its merchant-services segment [3]. - The Trade Desk (TTD) is down approximately 67%, facing decreased revenues due to competition from major players like Amazon, leading investors to view the stock as overvalued [4]. - Deckers Outdoor (DECK) has dropped around 57%, with slowing growth expectations and pressure on discretionary consumer spending impacting its well-known brands, UGG and Hoka [5]. - Gartner (IT) is down approximately 52%, with its valuation at $17 billion, facing cyclical pressure as companies reduce spending on advisory services during economic uncertainty [6].

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor has faced significant challenges in 2025, resulting in a 53% decline in stock value year-to-date, raising questions about its ability to recover in 2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The primary challenge for Deckers in 2025 has been weakening consumer spending in the U.S., impacting not only Deckers but also other consumer discretionary companies like Lululemon and Nike [5]. - Revenue growth slowed to 9% year-over-year in the fiscal second quarter, with domestic sales increasing only 1.7%, while international sales grew by 29.3%, now accounting for over 40% of total revenue [6]. Group 2: Performance in New Markets - Growth in international markets, particularly in China and the EMEA region, is crucial for Deckers' long-term growth strategy, with the company opening its first store in Germany [9]. - Hoka has shown strong performance in major European markets, gaining market share and experiencing growth in the direct-to-consumer channel [10]. Group 3: Margin Strength - Deckers has historically maintained high gross margins, which improved from 55.9% to 56.2% despite disappointing second-quarter results, indicating effective management of product pricing [11]. Group 4: Valuation - Following a decline of over 50% in 2025, Deckers' stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14, suggesting that significant weakness is already reflected in the stock price [13]. - If the valuation decreases further, it may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors, assuming the company can stabilize its business [14].

Core Viewpoint - Deckers Outdoor Corporation is recognized as a highly profitable large-cap stock, with recent upgrades from Stifel indicating strong confidence in the company's future growth, particularly for the Hoka brand and favorable supply-demand dynamics for Ugg [1][3]. Financial Performance - In FQ2 2026, Deckers reported total revenue of $1.43 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase and exceeding expectations [2]. - Diluted EPS for the quarter increased by 14% year-over-year to $1.82, up from $1.59 [2]. - HOKA revenue grew by 11% and UGG revenue increased by 10% during FQ2, contributing to robust overall revenue growth [2]. Brand Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year, HOKA revenue rose by 15% and UGG revenue increased by 12%, driven by strong international market performance [3]. - HOKA benefited from successful product updates, while UGG experienced strong wholesale demand [3]. Market Challenges - The company acknowledged challenges in the US consumer market, particularly due to tariffs and price increases, which led to a 10% decline in UGG's direct-to-consumer sales during FQ2 [3]. - Deckers anticipates continued tariff headwinds into FY2027, indicating potential ongoing challenges in the market [3].

Market Outlook - Oppenheimer's chief investment strategist, John Stoltzfus, expressed optimism about the market rally, attributing it to positive news from the New York Fed and Boston Fed [1] - The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in December is a key issue driving market focus, with a predicted 25 basis point cut [2] Investment Recommendations - Stoltzfus advised focusing on fundamentally strong stocks that may be sold off by aggressive traders, rather than buying dips indiscriminately [1] - Oppenheimer maintains a long-term preference for cyclical sectors over defensive ones, specifically recommending Information Technology, Communication Services, Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary [1] Company Analysis: Deckers Outdoor Corporation - Deckers has a market capitalization of $12.41 billion, TTM net income of $1.02 billion, and a net income margin of 19.36% as of November 21 [8] - The company reported a total revenue of $1.43 billion for FQ2 2026, marking a 9% year-over-year increase, with diluted EPS increasing by 14% to $1.82 [9] - HOKA revenue grew by 15% and UGG revenue rose by 12% in H1 of the fiscal year, driven by strong international performance [10] Company Analysis: Roper Technologies Inc. - Roper Technologies has a market capitalization of $47.76 billion, TTM net income of $1.57 billion, and a net income margin of 20.34% as of November 21 [12] - The company reported over $2 billion in total revenue for Q3 2025, a 14% year-over-year increase, with diluted EPS of $5.14, an 11% increase [14] - Roper's acquisition strategy has been effective, yielding durable free cash flow and growing recurring revenue [13]

Core Viewpoint - Anna Sports has experienced a positive stock reaction following an earnings beat and raised guidance, indicating strong performance in the apparel sector despite challenges faced by competitors like Lululemon and Nike [1][4]. Company Performance - Anna Sports reported an adjusted profit of 33 cents, exceeding estimates of 25 cents, and showing a 130% increase from 14 cents in the same quarter last year [5]. - Sales reached $1.76 billion, surpassing estimates by $30 million, and reflecting a 30% year-over-year growth [5]. - The company's outdoor performance brands, particularly Solomon, saw a 36% increase, while the technical apparel brand Arterics grew by 31% [6]. Guidance and Market Outlook - The company raised its EPS guidance from approximately 79.5 cents to 90 cents and expects sales growth in the high single to low double-digit teens percentage for the fiscal year [7]. - Strong performance in the Chinese market, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, has been a significant contributor to growth, contrasting with domestic weaknesses in the U.S. market [8]. Competitive Landscape - The footwear market remains competitive, with brands like On Holdings and Deckers (Hoka brand) gaining traction, while Nike has struggled [10]. - Anna Sports is positioned well in the apparel space, outperforming competitors like Lululemon, which faces increased competition [11]. Financial Metrics - The company reported a gross margin improvement, with 58% of sales above the previous year's 55.5%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [12]. - Operating margin improvements are expected to range between 30 and 70 basis points, with a current net income margin of approximately 3.5% [13].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is approaching 7,000 and currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29, making it the second-most expensive in history according to the Shiller P/E ratio [1][2] General Motors (GM) - General Motors has recently seen a stock price increase following its third-quarter earnings report, benefiting from trends in the auto industry [3][4] - The shift in consumer demand away from electric vehicles (EVs) and the elimination of the $7,500 EV tax credit have positively impacted GM [4][5] - The U.S. government's introduction of a 3.75% offset on trucks manufactured in the U.S. provides GM with a competitive advantage over foreign automakers [5] - GM's third-quarter revenue fell slightly by 0.3% to $48.6 billion, exceeding estimates of $45.33 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell from $2.96 to $2.80, surpassing the consensus of $2.32 [7] - The estimated gross tariff impact for GM has been lowered to between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, and the full-year adjusted EPS guidance has been raised to a range of $9.75 to $10.50 [8] - GM's stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 7, with a history of stock buybacks reducing shares outstanding by 15% over the last year [8][9] Deckers Outdoor (DECK) - Deckers Outdoor, known for brands like Hoka and Ugg, has faced challenges, with its stock down over 50% from its peak earlier this year due to tariff pressures and consumer spending headwinds [10][11] - The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14, based on an EPS forecast of $6.30 to $6.39 [11] - Domestic sales declined by 1.7% in the quarter, and the company faces an estimated $150 million headwind from tariffs [12] - Despite short-term challenges, international sales increased by 29.3% to $591.3 million, accounting for over 40% of revenue [15] - The wholesale revenue improved by 13.4%, and core brands experienced double-digit growth, although Ugg sales are expected to slow [15][16] - Deckers has a strong track record in managing footwear brands and is expected to return to steady bottom-line growth in the long term, making its current price a discount [16]

Company Performance - Chipotle has lowered its sales outlook, resulting in a share price drop of over 14% as consumers reduce dining out due to inflationary pressures [1] - The company has missed revenue expectations and has guided down same-store sales for the third consecutive quarter, indicating ongoing operational challenges [2] - Operating and restaurant margins have also missed expectations, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the current leadership team [2] Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable decline in traffic at Chipotle, particularly among younger consumers aged 25 to 35, who are reportedly feeling the economic pressure [5][7] - Feedback from consumers suggests a decline in the overall dining experience at Chipotle, including perceptions of food quality and restaurant cleanliness [6][8] Broader Economic Context - The performance issues at Chipotle may not be solely idiosyncratic but could reflect broader economic trends, as other consumer-facing companies like Royal Caribbean and Garmin are also experiencing challenges [4][5] - The ongoing government shutdown is expected to have a negative impact on consumer spending, particularly affecting those who are furloughed or working without pay [10] Other Companies - Deckers reported strong quarterly results with a double beat, gaining market share and expanding margins, but the stock was sold due to a lack of catalysts for growth in the near term [12] - Gap was sold after achieving double-digit gains, despite a positive outlook on the management and brand strategy [11]