Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now to take a closer look at Deca's brands after Argus upgraded shares this morning. So let's welcome in Marley Kaden for more details here.Obviously we are seeing some tariff sensitive areas of the market getting a lift. No doubt Decas is among those this morning off the back of the Supreme Court ruling out these tariffs on tariffs at least. Um so we did get a little bit of a juice from that but previously uh Decas had been rallying off the back of uh this Argu ...

And so now to help us make sense of some of the moves we're seeing of course just off off the open we're now joined by Diane King Hall host for the Schwab network. And so Diane, first and foremost, thank you so much for being with us this morning. I mean let's start with some of these individual movers like Texas Roadhouse for example, which is I mean seeing some quarterly numbers that were a bit all over the place, but definitely not seeing an evenness from that consumer which has been the case for a lot o ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that AI is reshaping the future, but there is skepticism regarding whether shareholders will benefit financially from this technological change. David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, remains cautious and highlights the uncertainty in the current market, comparing it to the internet bubble of 1999 [2][10][15]. - Einhorn describes the current market as the "most expensive market" he has seen in his career, indicating that traditional valuation metrics are at historical highs, which raises concerns about long-term investment strategies [3][17]. - The article discusses Einhorn's investment strategy, which includes a focus on undervalued companies and a significant bet on gold, driven by concerns over fiscal deficits and monetary policy imbalances [4][6][25]. Group 2 - Einhorn expresses skepticism about the current AI investment landscape, suggesting that the massive capital inflows into AI are driven more by competitive pressures than by clear business return logic, likening it to a forced arms race [10][14]. - He notes that while AI's societal impact may be profound in the long term, the immediate investment opportunities are complex and uncertain, making it difficult to justify investments in this sector [11][12]. - The article highlights Einhorn's views on the housing market, indicating a shift from supply shortages to demand issues, with structural challenges arising from changing demographics and affordability concerns for younger buyers [28][32][34]. Group 3 - Einhorn discusses the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, predicting that the number of cuts may exceed current market expectations, which could influence market valuations [18][19]. - The article mentions that while gold prices have risen significantly, the current market dynamics are more about adjustments in reserve structures rather than a panic over the dollar, which supports the rationale for holding gold [20][26]. - Einhorn's investment approach includes a focus on companies with strong management changes and operational stability, as seen in his investments in Acadia Healthcare and Deckers, indicating a strategy that combines fundamental analysis with strategic opportunities [40][42].

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE: DECK) experienced a significant increase in share prices, rising by 19.36% week-on-week, driven by strong earnings performance from its brands Ugg and Hoka [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, Deckers reported a net income increase of 5.3% to $481 million, up from $456.7 million year-on-year, while net sales grew by 7.1% to $1.96 billion from $1.83 billion [2] - Ugg generated $1.3 billion in revenue, reflecting a 4.9% increase from $1.24 billion in the same period last year, while Hoka's net sales rose by 18.5% to $628.9 million from $530.9 million [3] Growth Outlook - Following the positive earnings results, Deckers raised its full fiscal year growth outlook, now expecting net sales to be between $5.4 billion and $5.425 billion, an increase from the previous estimate of $5.35 billion [4] - The outlook for diluted earnings per share was also revised upward to a range of $6.80 to $6.85, compared to the earlier forecast of $6.30 to $6.39 [4] Market Position - The company highlighted strong gross margins due to high levels of full-price selling from UGG and HOKA, indicating a positive trajectory for profitable growth in premium and differentiated brands within expanding market segments [5]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding a slowdown in sales at Deckers Outdoor Corp. appear to be unfounded, as third quarter results indicate strong global demand for both Ugg and Hoka brands, providing continued growth opportunities for the company [1]. Financial Performance - Deckers' shares rose over 19 percent, closing at 119.34 following the earnings report [2]. - Revenue for Hoka increased by 18 percent and Ugg by 5 percent compared to the previous year [2]. - The company experienced a 15 percent revenue increase in international markets for both brands, alongside a 5 percent increase in the United States [2]. Brand Performance - The results surpassed expectations for both brands, achieved while maintaining high levels of full-price selling and demonstrating resilient price elasticity [3]. - Concerns regarding Ugg's performance were alleviated by emerging data suggesting better-than-expected sales following the holiday season [3]. Market Insights - Men's footwear for the Ugg brand is reportedly growing at twice the pace of the overall brand, with strong performance in various styles [4]. - Analysts expect Ugg orders for 2026 to increase, driven by traditional retailers in North America and international markets, despite some weaknesses in specific channels [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Ugg is enhancing its position as a premium lifestyle brand through consistent global marketing aligned with its target consumer base [5]. - The brand strategically allocated additional products to the wholesale channel before peak season, ensuring in-stock positions for retail accounts [5]. - Direct-to-consumer revenue increased by 5 percent, while wholesale revenue gained 4 percent compared to the previous year [5].

Company Performance - Deckers, the parent company of Hoka and Uggs, reported a strong quarterly performance with shares up 13.5%, indicating a significant recovery from last year's performance [2] - Adjusted EPS for Deckers came in at 3.33, exceeding the expected 2.77, while revenue reached $1.96 billion, surpassing the forecast of $1.88 billion, marking record revenue and profit [3] - Hoka brand sales surged by 18.5%, while Uggs also showed a 5% increase, both exceeding expectations [4] - Direct-to-consumer sales rose over 8%, and wholesale sales increased by 6%, demonstrating balanced growth across sales channels [5] - Deckers' gross margin was reported at 59.8%, with a slight margin compression, but overall profitability remains strong, leading to an upward revision of full-year EPS guidance to a range of 6.80 to 6.85 [6] SoFi Performance - SoFi's adjusted EPS was reported at 0.13, slightly above the expected 0.12, with revenue exceeding $1 billion for the first time, marking a significant milestone [8] - The company added 1 million new members in the quarter, bringing total membership to 13.7 million, reflecting a 35% year-over-year increase [9] - SoFi's financial services segment grew by 78% annually, contributing to overall revenue growth across its business lines [10] - For 2026, SoFi is guiding revenue between $4.66 billion and adjusted EPS of 0.60, both ahead of consensus estimates [11] KLA Performance - KLA reported adjusted EPS of 8.85, slightly beating the expected 8.82, with revenue at $3.3 billion, also above the forecast of approximately $3.25 billion [12][13] - Services revenue increased by 18% year-over-year, highlighting the strength of KLA's high-margin recurring revenue model [14] - Free cash flow was reported at over $1.25 billion, up 67% year-over-year, indicating strong cash generation despite a pullback in share price [14]

Core Insights - Deckers Brands' shares increased over 10% following the release of its Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report, which showed strong financial performance [1] Financial Performance - Net sales for Q3 fiscal 2026 rose 7.1% to $1.96 billion, up from $1.83 billion in the same quarter last year [1] - Net income for Q3 was $481.15 million, or $3.33 per diluted share, compared to $456.73 million, or $3.00 per diluted share, in the prior year [1] Analyst Expectations - The reported results exceeded analysts' expectations, which forecasted net sales between $1.85 billion and $1.9 billion and diluted earnings per share between $2.67 and $2.88 [2] Brand Performance - Ugg brand net sales reached $1.31 billion, a 4.9% increase from $1.24 billion year-over-year [2] - Hoka brand net sales increased 18.5% to $628.9 million, up from $530.9 million in Q3 of the previous year [2] Other Brands Division - The "Other" brands division, including Teva and Ahnu, experienced a significant decline in net sales, dropping 55.5% to $23.2 million from $52.1 million [3] Sales Channels - Wholesale net sales increased 6% to $864.6 million compared to $815.8 million [4] - Direct-to-consumer channel net sales rose 8.1% to $1.09 billion from $1.01 billion year-over-year [4] Regional Performance - Domestic net sales increased 2.7% to $1.2 billion compared to $1.17 billion in Q3 2025 [4] - International net sales surged 15% to $756.7 million from $657.9 million [4] Strategic Insights - The CEO highlighted record revenue and earnings per share driven by strong global demand for Ugg and Hoka [5] - The company emphasized balanced growth in both direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels, with continued international momentum [6] Future Guidance - Deckers raised its full fiscal year 2026 guidance, expecting net sales between $5.4 billion and $5.43 billion, and diluted earnings per share between $6.80 and $6.85 [6]

Core Insights - The footwear and apparel company reported a 19% increase in Hoka sales, indicating strong demand for this brand [1] - Ugg sales experienced a modest rise of 4.9%, reflecting stable performance in this segment [1] - However, the company's other brands faced a significant decline in sales, dropping by 56%, which raises concerns about their market performance [1]

Investment Performance - Greenlight Capital's Partnership returned 9.0% (net) in 2025, compared to 17.9% for the S&P 500 index, and 8.5% in Q4 versus 2.7% for the index [1] - Since its inception in May 1996, the Partnership has returned $6.1 billion, net of fees and expenses, to its investors [1] Company Overview: Deckers Outdoor Corporation - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) operates footwear, apparel, and accessories brands, including Hoka and UGG [2][3] - As of January 28, 2026, DECK stock closed at $97.62 per share, with a market capitalization of $14.481 billion [2] Stock Performance and Challenges - Deckers Outdoor Corporation's stock experienced a one-month return of -5.85% and a 52-week decline of 56.25% [2] - The stock decline was attributed to disappointing results early in 2025, influenced by tariff uncertainty, a warehouse transition in Europe, and warm weather affecting UGG sales [3] Future Outlook - Greenlight Capital expects growth to re-accelerate for Deckers as Hoka expands internationally and anticipates the company will utilize its strong balance sheet, with net cash equal to roughly 9% of its market capitalization, to increase stock repurchases [3] - Greenlight Capital acquired DECK shares at an average price of $85.49, with the stock ending the quarter at $103.67 [3] Hedge Fund Interest - Deckers Outdoor Corporation was held by 62 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3, an increase from 59 in the previous quarter [4] - Despite acknowledging Deckers' potential, Greenlight Capital suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [4]

Some on Wall Street continue to see Hoka growth, with Ugg trailing somewhat, as Deckers Brands gears up for its third quarter earnings release on Thursday. Analysts will want to know more in detail how wholesale orders shape up going forward, and how direct-to-consumer sales fared over the holiday season. And one interesting plus going forward for Ugg is its growth in men’s footwear. Meanwhile, high-income female earners could continue to help drive Hoka sales going forward. According to a TD Cowen study ...