Market Risk Assessment - Investors are taking on excessive risk in South African corporate bonds [1] - The increased risk is due to the weak outlook for economic growth in South Africa [1] Company Focus - Prescient highlights the excessive risk-taking behavior [1]

Treasuries were set to close out a third straight quarter of gains as a pending US government shutdown threatens to slow economic growth https://t.co/czHFeK5S8t ...

European stocks were set to wrap up September with the best performance since 2019, as optimism around resilient US economic growth and lower interest rates lifted risk appetite https://t.co/Zsyvj6ePlS ...

India must grow 12% a year to fix its jobs crisis, Morgan Stanley warns https://t.co/5UJmi6ToVy ...

Asia's economies grew at a solid pace in the first half, but that momentum will slow as tariffs take effect, the Asian Development Bank said. ...

The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision on Wednesday will likely be a close call, with policymakers facing multiple reasons to lower borrowing costs as inflation stays low and economic growth takes a knock from high US tariffs https://t.co/klulOiZE3z ...

Zimbabwe ordered government departments to halt unbudgeted spending and focus funds only on projects that will support economic growth https://t.co/OgSZlUap9N ...

But I keep hearing the sword recently, and that's for stagflation. And that's what we're digging into on today's stocks in translation. First, let's get our terms straight.Staglation here means three warning lights flashing at once. Weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Stagnation plus inflation.And some folks draw a line between capital S, the 1970s kind of stagflation, and the lowercase S when only parts show up. And since the pandemic, we've really only seen the lowercase kind. ...

Economic Overview - Stagflation is characterized by weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, with current conditions indicating a lowercase stagflation since the pandemic [1][2] - Economic growth is measured by GDP, which reflects domestic production, while GNP tracks earnings of Americans globally [2][3] Inflation Metrics - Key inflation indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), with the latter being favored by the Federal Reserve for its broader scope [3][4] - Distinction between headline inflation, which includes food and energy, and core inflation, which excludes these volatile components, is crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] Employment Indicators - The unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes are monitored closely, along with weekly unemployment claims, to gauge labor market health [5] - Historical data shows that during the 1970s stagflation, unemployment exceeded 7-8% with double-digit inflation and contracting GDP [6] Current Economic Conditions - Presently, unemployment is modest, PCE is in the high twos, and GDP remains strong, indicating that the economy is not in a severe stagflation scenario like the 1970s [7][8] - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with gold up over 40% and silver nearing 60% this year, reflecting a response to elevated inflation and current interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] Monitoring Indicators - Key indicators to watch include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with a focus on services inflation, shelter costs, and healthcare expenses [9] - Fluctuations in oil prices or a weaker dollar could quickly impact headline inflation, necessitating close monitoring of real incomes versus consumer demand [10] Conclusion - There is a potential risk of lowercase stagflation, but it is unlikely to escalate to the levels seen in the 1970s or 80s based on current observations [11]

Spain was upgraded by Moody’s Ratings and Fitch Ratings, a double-whammy that recognizes the economy’s standout growth performance in the euro area https://t.co/uJP7PBRvqH ...