Market Overview - The Market Clubhouse provides daily updates on key price levels for major stocks including SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA, based on a proprietary formula that considers price, volume, and options flow [1][2]. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) - SPY is trading near 622.00, with bullish targets at 623.25 and 624.79, and an ultimate target of 626.49 if momentum continues [2]. - If SPY falls below 622.00, sellers will target 620.94, with further downside risks to 619.65 and a low target of 616.36 [3]. Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) - QQQ is near 555.59, with bullish targets at 557.52 and 560.00, potentially reaching 566.68 if buying is strong [4]. - A failure to hold above 555.59 could lead to a decline towards 553.84 and a low target of 549.97 [5]. Apple Inc. (AAPL) - AAPL is trading around 209.27, with initial bullish targets at 210.58 and 211.90, aiming for a high target of 213.53 [6]. - If the support at 209.27 is lost, sellers will target 208.27, with further downside to 207.39 and a low target of 206.01 [7]. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - MSFT is near 504.90, with bullish targets at 506.80 and 508.67, aiming for a high target of 511.11 [8]. - A drop below 504.90 could see targets at 503.73 and a low target of 499.29 [9]. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - NVDA is trading around 169.92, with bullish targets at 170.96 and 172.33, potentially reaching 175.33 [11]. - If it cannot hold above 169.92, sellers will target 167.72, with further downside to 163.91 [12]. Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) - GOOGL is near 182.68, with bullish targets at 183.73 and 185.60 [13]. - A failure to maintain 182.68 could lead to a decline towards 181.57 and a low target of 178.73 [14]. Meta Platforms Inc (META) - META is trading near 713.89, with bullish targets at 716.60 and 718.55, aiming for a high target of 723.84 [15]. - If support at 713.89 fails, sellers will target 709.98, with further downside to 705.52 [16]. Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - TSLA is around 309.70, with bullish targets at 311.98 and 315.66, potentially reaching 323.84 [17]. - If the support at 309.70 is compromised, sellers will target 307.86, with further downside to 304.63 [18]. Economic Indicators - The economic calendar includes the June PPI report and the July New York Fed Services Business Activity index, which could impact market direction [19]. - Fed officials are scheduled to speak, with their comments likely to influence monetary policy expectations [20].

Bretton Woods System Overview - The Bretton Woods system aimed to establish a stable international monetary system to foster global trade and economic stability after World War II [6] - The system placed the US at the center of the economic universe, with the US dollar pegged to gold at $35 per troy ounce, and other countries pegged their currencies to the dollar [21][22] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank were created to oversee the system, promote economic development, and ensure adherence to the fixed parity system [25] Systemic Flaws and Challenges - The system's reliance on a national currency (the US dollar) as the primary source of international liquidity contained an inherent contradiction, known as the Triffin dilemma [32] - The US's persistent balance of payments deficits led to a flood of dollars, eroding confidence in the dollar's convertibility into gold [36] - The US did not actively manage its exchange rate, placing the burden of adjustment on other countries and creating an "exorbitant privilege" for the US [28][31] Demise of Bretton Woods - Countries began swapping dollars for gold, leading to a depletion of US gold reserves [41][42] - On August 15, 1971, President Nixon ended the convertibility of dollars into gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system [44] - The end of Bretton Woods led to a system of free-floating exchange rates and a terminal decline in the value of many currencies [47] Legacy and Implications - Bretton Woods institutionalized the dollar's global role as the dominant reserve currency [21] - The system's flaws led to the erosion of the US domestic manufacturing base and a growing net international investment position deficit [39] - The end of Bretton Woods marked the birth of fiat currency, backed by nothing but the issuer's monopoly on violence [46]

Core Viewpoint - Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) is expected to report solid growth in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of 2025, driven by market volatility and increased client activity [3][9]. Financial Performance - IBKR's second-quarter revenue is estimated at $1.33 billion, reflecting an 8.5% year-over-year increase [3]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share has been revised upward by 4.7% to 45 cents, indicating a 2.3% rise from the previous year [4]. - Commission revenues are projected to rise 19.9% year-over-year to $486.8 million [9]. - Other fees and services are expected to grow by 6.5% to $72.4 million, while other income is estimated at $16.5 million, a significant recovery from losses of $36 million in the prior year [10]. Cost and Expenses - Total non-interest expenses are anticipated to be $365.3 million, marking a 4.4% increase year-over-year due to investments in platform capabilities and regulatory compliance [12]. - Net interest income (NII) is expected to decline by 4.3% to $758 million, impacted by lower interest rates [11]. Market Activity - The second quarter saw heightened client activity due to market volatility related to tariff concerns and Federal Reserve monetary policy [3][9]. - A four-for-one stock split was implemented, which began trading on June 18, 2025, likely boosting investor interest [2][9]. Earnings Surprise History - IBKR has a history of earnings surprises, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.38% [6][8]. Stock Performance - IBKR's stock performance in the second quarter was strong, outperforming industry peers such as Charles Schwab and Tradeweb Markets [15].

Market Reaction to Potential Fed Chair Removal - The market has priced in a risk of the potential removal of the Fed chair, despite it being a low probability outcome [4] - Concerns about eroded policy independence have driven market moves this year [4] - A hypothetical removal of the Fed chair could lead to a sell-off in the dollar and bonds [5] Dollar and Yield Impact - Deutsche Bank suggests a potential decline in the dollar and a spike in yields if the Fed chair is removed [1][2] - Significant outflows from the dollar in knee-jerk fashion, and a big spike in yields at the long end of the curve are expected [3] - A more dovish policy outlook could lead to inflation expectations unanchoring and a subsequent sell-off at the long end [3] Confidence and Economic Impact - Eroded policy independence erodes confidence in the US economy and the value of the dollar [7] - Declines in the dollar are making people buy less things in dollars, leading to less dollars in circulation and less spending in the US markets [6] Equity Market Outlook - A knee-jerk move lower in the equity market is expected, but dip buyers may step in due to a looser monetary policy outlook [8] - A Fed chair picked by Trump would be considerably more dovish and more likely to cut rates, potentially a tailwind for the market in the short term [8] FOMC Dynamics - A new Fed chair's proposed actions may not carry the support of a majority of FOMC members [9][10]

Oversight and Spending Concerns - The Federal Reserve's spending, particularly on building projects, lacks sufficient congressional oversight [2][4] - The cost overrun on a Federal Reserve building renovation is $700 million [3] - The cost overrun alone is comparable to the entire cost of constructing the FBI building [3][4] - Questions arise regarding the Fed's ability to spend $25 billion (two and a half billion dollars) on a building without proper oversight, especially considering its origins under a gold standard [2] Independence vs Accountability - There is a strong desire to maintain the Federal Reserve's independent monetary policy [4] - However, increased congressional oversight is needed regarding the Fed's spending and building projects [4] Leadership and Response - The possibility of removing the Federal Reserve Chair (Chair Pal) is being considered in response to the cost overrun [1] - The Federal Reserve's response to the "incredible cost overrun" will be closely monitored [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The FOMC is positioned to wait for more clarity on inflation and economic activity, with a careful approach to adjusting monetary policy due to elevated uncertainty [2][3] - Most participants believe that some reductions in the fed funds rate would likely be appropriate this year, with a median forecast of two cuts in 2025 [3][4] - The Fed staff's economic forecast indicates higher GDP growth through 2027 compared to previous forecasts, primarily due to trade policy announcements [4][8] Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Minutes - Participants generally agreed on a wait-and-see approach regarding inflation and economic activity, noting that uncertainty had decreased since the May meeting [2] - A few participants suggested that tariffs might only lead to a one-time price increase, while most noted the risk of persistent inflation effects [4] Economic Forecasts - The Fed staff's forecast includes higher GDP growth through 2027 and a lower inflation projection than in May, with expectations for inflation to return to the 2% target by 2027 [8] - The staff anticipates that tariff increases will raise inflation this year and provide a small boost in 2026 [8] Communication Strategy - A preliminary discussion was held regarding potential changes to the Summary of Economic Projections and the addition of alternative scenarios to the FOMC's communications strategy [9]

Market Trend & Prediction - The analysis suggests that all Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach range lows, potentially driven by liquidity conditions and retail consumer behavior [4][6][10] - The analyst anticipates a potential 20% drop in Bitcoin valuations for altcoins [13][17] - The report notes a possible short-term bounce in the summer, but the eventual outcome is expected to be the range lows [22][23] - The analysis draws parallels to historical data, suggesting a potential low in late October or early November [9][10] Macroeconomic Factors - The analyst suggests that a low unemployment rate of 41% might delay interest rate cuts, potentially impacting higher-risk assets [7][21] - The report indicates a shift in the probability of rate cuts, with a reduced chance of a cut in July (from 25% to 5%) and an increased chance of no cut in September (from 5% to 333%) [7] Altcoin Performance - The analysis highlights that while altcoins may have performed better in USD valuations, they have underperformed against Bitcoin [14][15] - The report questions the value of altcoin USD gains if they continue to bleed against Bitcoin [16] Technical Analysis - The analyst points out that every rally has met with a lower high, indicating a potential breakdown [17] - The analysis references specific Bitcoin pair valuations, noting a move from 031% to a potential 025% [18] - The report includes USDC in the analysis, showing a valuation of 029% and suggesting further downside [19]

The numbers are expected to show some impact of trade and chaos in the fiscal space with just 106,000 as the forecast consensus, 95,000 for the whisper number. So Wall Street leaning towards pessimism. Unemployment 4.3%.This would be a case of rounding. When we look out to three digits because barely rounded down to four to last month and it could go as high as four four depending on where we end up. Jobless claims are out today as well, 241,000.That's about where we are right now. So if there's a big chang ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global economic outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing US tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and its nuclear ambitions [3][4][24] - US tariffs are expected to have a significant impact on both US and global growth, with a projected decline in global GDP from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 [8][22] - The average effective tariff rate for US consumers has reached 15.8%, the highest since 1936, indicating a substantial increase in trade costs [9][46] Summary by Sections Key Forecasts - Global GDP growth is forecasted to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 and further to 2.3% in 2026 [22] - Developed economies are expected to grow at a slower pace compared to emerging markets, with the US GDP growth projected at 1.8% for 2025 [22] Economic Environment - The report highlights the volatility in global trade data due to frontloading ahead of US tariffs, which has led to a surge in imports followed by a sharp decline [12][52] - US tariffs are anticipated to slow trade growth, with global trade growth projected at just 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 [12][71] Tariff Implications - US tariffs are described as a multi-purpose tool that will likely lead to higher inflation and lower growth in the US, with ongoing uncertainty regarding future tariff negotiations [11][50] - The report notes that countries with lower exposure to US tariffs may benefit, particularly those positioned to supply components currently sourced from mainland China [13][74] Consumer Spending and Inflation - US consumer spending is expected to slow due to weaker employment and slower real wage growth, while inflation pressures may persist despite a general slowdown in growth [15][16] - The report anticipates sticky core inflation in the US, influenced by supply shocks from tariffs and lower immigration [16] Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to pause rate changes during the summer, amidst ongoing global economic uncertainty [17][31] - Divergences in central bank policies are noted, with the Fed likely to cut rates modestly by the end of 2026 [17] Fiscal Policy and Trade Negotiations - Ongoing US fiscal negotiations are highlighted as critical, with potential implications for economic growth depending on the outcomes [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade negotiations and their impact on global economic dynamics [20][33]

RT apewood (@apewoodx)2020 - 2021:- fiscal printer brrr- monetary policy brrreasy fiscal + easy monetary policy = perfect storm2022 - 2024:- fiscal printer brrr- monetary policy tight (fed hiking, flipped in 2022 and game over bubble valuations)- we had glimpse into fed in cutting mode in late 2024 but they quickly flipped back hawkish early 2025easy fiscal + tight monetary policy = not the best conditionsEarly 2025:- fiscal printer - people believed the govt was going to balance the budget (tighter fiscal) ...