On today’s Big Take Asia podcast, how a rebel army in Myanmar became a major player in the global supply for rare earths — and what its growing influence means for neighboring China. https://t.co/37RBnI7RFP ...

Investment & Portfolio - Australia's richest woman holds an $800 million rare earths portfolio [1]

Rare Earths & Critical Minerals Supply Chain - Establishing a domestic rare earth magnet manufacturing business is possible but faces challenges [1] - Building the infrastructure for harvesting and refining rare earths takes considerable time, impacting EV production [2] - Government intervention is warranted in cases of market failure or negative externalities related to public goods like climate [4][5] - Ford and other U S manufacturers have experienced production pauses due to rare earth supply shortages [6] - The U S refining infrastructure for rare earths is estimated to be up to speed within 5 to 10 years [7] Electric Vehicle (EV) Market & Policy - The transition to EVs accelerated after 2010, reaching approximately 10% market share [8] - IRS tax credits have significantly influenced EV sales, with potential slowdowns anticipated without them [8][9] - Domestic sourcing of critical minerals is crucial for climate and national security reasons [9] - The Trump administration invested in private industry, such as MP Materials, to advance domestic rare earth production [3]

Geopolitical Risk & Resource Control - China's grip on rare earths might not be as strong as you think [1] - Other countries will find ways around shortages when confronted with a ban on vital resources [1]

China has put strict export controls on rare earths. Western leaders consider the threat grave. But there are efforts to reduce the dependence on China in America, Japan and the European Union https://t.co/cCCltT3F17 ...

Geopolitical Risk & Trade - China is warning Western companies against hoarding rare earths, potentially leading to more severe shortage risks [1] - Orders exceeding historical averages may face stricter scrutiny to prevent stockpiling [1] Regulatory Scrutiny - Increased scrutiny targets large orders, especially those significantly above a company's historical average [1] Industry Impact - The US-China Business Council reports heightened scrutiny on orders to prevent stockpiling [1]

Confronted with a ban on the vital resources, other countries will find ways around shortages. We explain why China’s grip on rare earths might not be as strong as you think https://t.co/9jrdfMOJML ...

Back when we were stopping the flow of ships to China, It was America's national security concern about how China would use those chips. In the military context, the development 24 hours later after the president cut that deal, is China saying we have national security concerns and we want to champion our own domestic names. Who has the upper hand in this negotiation.Well, I think that for China, a lot of the signaling that it has been engaged in is largely performative. We know that the Chinese continue to ...

Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The current trade negotiations between the US and China are proceeding at a slower pace compared to previous deals [1] - Both sides have agreed to a tariff rollover, allowing them to focus on key outstanding issues such as export controls, critical minerals, and excess capacity [1] - The US administration may be internally divided on the approach to China, particularly regarding export controls [6] Export Controls and National Security - The US position on export controls has historically been that they are non-negotiable due to national security concerns [3] - The Trump administration's openness to discussing export controls has created an opportunity for China to seek rollbacks of existing restrictions [4] - The US faces a decision on whether to supply China with chips and high-tech goods needed for its advanced A I industry [5] China's Leverage - China is in a stronger negotiating position compared to the Phase one trade talks, leveraging its control over critical minerals and magnets [7] - China may use its leverage to seek a more balanced deal with the US [7] - China could use its access to rare earths to its advantage in the negotiations [6] Potential Outcomes and Risks - A limited deal may be reached, with a process established to address unresolved issues [8][9] - Emerging issues could be put on the table, but time is limited [8] - If the US doesn't offer terms that China finds acceptable, new issues could be introduced during the next 90 days [8]

Group 1 - The potential recovery of rare earth elements in Wyoming could attract speculative interest in the stock, especially during price pullbacks [1] - Analyst outlook remains minimal, with only three "buy" recommendations, indicating room for optimism [1] - Short interest has surged 73% since June, reaching an all-time high, while implied volatility is reasonable with a 30-day IV at 90% and options IV at 88% [1] Group 2 - Analysts have not fully embraced rare earths, presenting a contrarian investment opportunity [2] - The rare earth mining stock may be at the beginning of a significant upward trend [2] - The service offers a high potential for same-day trading gains, with a reported +227% year-to-date performance [2]