In a big de-escalation of recent trade tensions, the US and China have recently agreed to a 90-day truce that significantly lowers tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in goods.More specifically, the deal reduces US tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and cuts Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. Importantly, the agreement provides a nice level of temporary relief while also opening the door for further negotiations.Several companies with notable China exposure, Apple (AAPL) and Nike ...

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) are key players in the gold mining industry, with both companies benefiting from rising gold prices due to global economic uncertainties and trade tensions [1][2] - Gold prices have increased approximately 30% this year, reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce, influenced by aggressive trade policies and central bank gold accumulation [2] - A comparison of the fundamentals of NEM and AEM is essential for investors looking for opportunities in the precious metals sector [3] Newmont Corporation (NEM) - NEM is actively investing in growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, aimed at increasing production capacity and extending mine life [4] - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has enhanced NEM's portfolio, expected to generate $500 million in annual run-rate synergies [5] - NEM's attributable gold production rose approximately 9% year over year in Q4, with significant divestitures generating total after-tax cash proceeds of $4.3 billion [6] - NEM reported liquidity of $8.8 billion and operating cash flow of around $2 billion in Q1, with a record free cash flow of $1.2 billion [7] - The company returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, maintaining a dividend yield of 1.9% and a payout ratio of 24% [8] Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) - AEM is focused on advancing key projects such as the Odyssey project and the Hope Bay Project, which is expected to significantly contribute to cash flow [9][10] - AEM's operating cash flow increased by approximately 33% year over year to $1,044 million in Q1, with free cash flow rising around 50% to $594 million [11] - AEM returned about $920 million to shareholders last year and $251 million in Q1, offering a dividend yield of 1.4% and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 10.3% [12] Price Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, NEM stock has increased by 46.7%, while AEM stock has risen by 52.3%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 44.8% [13] - NEM is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.04, which is an 11.4% discount compared to the industry average of 14.72 [14] - AEM is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 19.9, indicating a premium over NEM [17] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM's 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 0.1% and 14.9%, respectively [18] - AEM's 2025 sales and EPS estimates suggest year-over-year growth of 20.6% and 44.4%, respectively, indicating stronger growth potential [19] Investment Considerations - Both NEM and AEM are well-positioned to benefit from rising gold prices, but AEM's higher earnings growth projections and lower leverage suggest it may be a more favorable investment option [22] - AEM currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), while NEM has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [23]

Group 1: Stock Performance - ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) shares have increased by 17.2% over the past 30 days, outperforming the Zacks Transportation - Shipping industry's 13.2% and Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corporation's (SHIP) 6.4% gain [1] - Euroseas Limited (ESEA) has shown even stronger performance with a 20.3% increase in the same timeframe [1] Group 2: Trade Tensions and Market Impact - The shipping industry, including ZIM, has been adversely affected by trade tensions, which can slow down the transportation of goods [4] - Recent signs of easing trade tensions, including potential reductions in tariffs on Chinese goods, have positively impacted shipping stocks like ZIM [5][7] - Discussions during Vice President JD Vance's visit to India indicated progress in U.S.-China relations, further supporting the optimistic outlook for ZIM [6] Group 3: Business Model and Financial Health - ZIM's asset-light business model allows for rapid capacity adjustments, enhancing profitability during high demand periods [8] - The company's focus on niche markets and high-margin trade routes helps maintain strong pricing power and operational efficiency [9] - ZIM's high dividend yield reflects confidence in its cash flow, with a declared dividend of approximately $382 million or $3.17 per ordinary share in the December quarter [10][11] Group 4: Earnings and Valuation - ZIM has a history of impressive earnings surprises, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the past four quarters, with an average beat of 19.3% [11] - The stock is considered attractively valued, trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.28X, lower than the industry average and competitors [12] Group 5: Future Projections and Concerns - Management expressed concerns about declining freight rates and issued cautious projections for 2025, expecting adjusted EBITDA between $1.6 billion and $2.2 billion [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ZIM's earnings has declined over the past 60 days, indicating bearish sentiment [16][17]

Mattel's iconic Barbies may be getting more expensive. The California-based toy manufacturer said it may have to adjust its prices in the US to offset President Donald Trump's tariffs. Mattel's CEO, Ynon Kreiz, said in a Monday earnings call with investors that the company was taking a three- pronged approach to offset the impact of Trump's tariffs. "Accelerating diversification of our supply chain and further reducing reliance on China-sourced products, optimizing product sourcing and product mix, and wher ...

Core Insights - Cheetah Net Supply Chain Service Inc. has shifted its focus from parallel-import vehicle sales to logistics and warehousing services due to challenging market conditions in China and trade tensions with the U.S. [2][3] - The company reported a significant decline in sales volume in the parallel-import vehicle segment, leading to the discontinuation of this business line [2][3] - The logistics and warehousing segment generated $479,799 in revenue for Q1 2025, with TWEW contributing 87% of this revenue [3][4] Recent Highlights - The parallel-import vehicle business faced a significant downturn, prompting the board to approve its discontinuation [2] - The company is focusing on operational efficiencies and expanding service offerings to position itself for future growth [2] - The newly acquired subsidiary TWEW outperformed the earlier acquisition, Edward Transit Express Group, indicating a positive shift in business strategy [2] Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, total revenue was $479,799, with a gross profit of $56,256 [3][4] - General and administrative expenses increased by 30.3% to $1.0 million, primarily due to hiring and operational expansions [5] - Interest income surged to $208,090, a 619.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024, driven by interest on short-term loans and certificates of deposit [7] Losses and Discontinued Operations - The company reported a net loss of $753,909 for Q1 2025, compared to a net loss of $608,930 in Q1 2024 [8][10] - The discontinued parallel-import vehicle business generated $1.4 million in revenue in Q1 2024 but incurred a gross loss of $9,283 [9][10] Liquidity and Cash Flow - As of March 31, 2025, current assets totaled $10.2 million, with cash and cash equivalents at $0.3 million [12] - The company reported net cash flow of $1.8 million from operating activities for Q1 2025 [13] - Total stockholders' equity decreased to $11.9 million from $12.6 million as of December 31, 2024 [13]

Core Viewpoint - ACM Research (ACMR) has shown strong preliminary first-quarter 2025 results, leading to positive market sentiment and a stock price increase of 5.1% due to robust revenue growth expectations [1][3]. Financial Performance - Preliminary revenue figures indicate a year-over-year growth of 8.4% to 11.7% for ACMR, driven by sustained customer demand and a favorable product mix [1]. - The company expects total revenues for 2025 to be between $850 million and $950 million, with an improved gross margin forecast of 42-48% [13]. Shipment and Market Dynamics - Despite anticipated shipment declines of 36% to 37%, ACMR attributes this to a temporary timing mismatch rather than a structural issue, with combined total shipments projected to increase by 8% to 9% year-over-year for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [2]. - Management expects shipment growth to resume in Q2 2025, supported by steady customer orders and ongoing expansion in the semiconductor industry [2]. Competitive Positioning - ACMR has outperformed its peers and the broader market, with a year-to-date stock increase of 28.6%, contrasting with declines in the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the S&P 500 [3][4]. - The company holds a strong competitive position in the wafer cleaning market, generating $579 million in 2024, which accounts for 74% of total revenues and reflects a 43% growth over 2023 [10]. Market Expansion and Product Diversification - ACMR is strategically diversifying its product portfolio beyond core cleaning and plating segments, targeting a larger serviceable addressable market of $18 billion [12]. - New technologies such as Furnace, Track, PECVD, and LPCVD are gaining traction, with expectations for furnace revenues to grow in 2025 [12]. Valuation Metrics - ACMR shares are considered attractively valued, with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 1.16, significantly lower than the sector average of 5.60 [14]. - Compared to peers like Applied Materials and Lam Research, ACMR's valuation remains competitive, trading at a forward Price/Sales of 4X [14]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 2025 earnings is pegged at 37 cents per share, indicating a 28.9% decline year-over-year, although this figure has improved by 19 cents over the past 90 days [17].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report addresses key investor questions regarding tariffs, trade, and trade tensions, focusing on high-frequency indicators and their implications for growth outlook [3][5][8] Current Status of Trade and Tariffs - High-frequency indicators show a significant decline in US-China trade activity, while broader trade activity is starting to recover after a sharp deceleration [5][9] - Tariffs on China have risen sharply, with effective rates increasing from 11% in January 2025 to 107% by April 2025 [36][40] - The overall effective tariff rate on US imports has increased by 23 percentage points year-to-date, reaching 25% [42][44] High-Frequency Indicators - Daily port calling data indicates that port callings in China have softened to 4.0% year-on-year from a mid-March peak of 10.6% [10][12] - The number of cargo-carrying container ships departing from China to the US has contracted by 33% year-on-year [13][14] - Scheduled blank sailings in the US have risen 14-fold compared to the previous month, indicating significant disruptions in shipping [11][19] Future Outlook - Talks between the US and China are expected to begin, potentially leading to a gradual reduction in tariff rates, but tariffs are likely to remain higher than January 2025 levels [46][48] - For Asia excluding China, reaching trade deals before the tariff pause expires is challenging, with some economies more likely to secure agreements than others [55] - Elevated uncertainty from tariffs is expected to weigh on capital expenditures and trade, leading to a potential synchronous slowdown in growth [56][58] Growth Implications - The report anticipates a sharp deceleration in growth for China, projecting 2Q25 growth below 4.5%, significantly weaker than 1Q25 [58] - Trade-exposed economies in Asia, such as Korea and Taiwan, are expected to experience a sharper deceleration in growth compared to less exposed economies like India and Australia [59][60]

Sentiment Indicators - The AAII Sentiment Survey indicates that bearish sentiment has exceeded 50% for nine consecutive weeks, marking a record streak in its 30-year history [1] - The CNN Fear & Greed Index recently recorded an extreme fear reading of 3, one of the lowest possible values [3] - The NAAIM exposure index has dropped from over 100% in late 2024 to under 40% this month, reflecting a significant reduction in equity exposure among active investment managers [6] IPO Market - The IPO market has seen 98 IPOs in 2025, which is 69% higher than the same period in 2024, indicating a resurgence in investor risk appetite [7] - CoreWeave went public recently and is trading above its IPO day price, while Cantor Equity Partners has surged by 155% in just one week [7] Trade Relations - Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are beneficial for major tech companies like Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple, which depend on China for production and market access [9] Overall Market Outlook - The combination of historically bearish sentiment, improved trade rhetoric, and a robust IPO market suggests that bullish sentiment may be gaining traction on Wall Street [11]

14 April 2025 The evolution of trade Economics 50+ charts on how supply chains are reconfiguring Global trade has gone through some major structural shifts over the years and with supply chains squarely in focus amid sweeping US tariff announcements, further reconfiguration is inevitable. As will be obvious to readers, we cannot write about how trade flows have evolved without focusing in on China. A decade ago, China was involved in 13 out of the top 30 goods import corridors. Today, that number is 17. In ...

Core Viewpoint - Infosys forecasts muted annual revenue growth due to increasing global uncertainty, suggesting clients may reduce tech spending [1][2] Revenue Forecast - Infosys expects revenue to remain flat or grow by up to 3% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 on a constant currency basis, which is below analyst estimates of 2-4% [2] - This forecast is lower than the previous year's constant-currency revenue growth of 4.2% [2] Market Context - The company earns over 80% of its revenue from Western markets, making it vulnerable to global economic conditions [2] - Infosys anticipated a demand revival in 2025 after a growth slowdown in 2024, but ongoing client spending weakness and trade tensions have clouded the outlook [3] Executive Insights - CEO Salil Parekh described the current environment as "uncertain" and emphasized the need for agility in execution [4] - CFO Jayesh Sanghrajka noted that the lower end of the sales forecast reflects increasing uncertainty, complicating the assessment of external factors like trade policies [4] Financial Performance - Infosys reported an 11.75% year-on-year drop in net profit for the March quarter, totaling 70.3 billion rupees ($823.5 million), which was below analyst projections [5] - Revenue for the three months ending March 31 increased by 7.9% to 409.25 billion rupees [6]