Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +1.06%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.16%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell to a 3-week low and closed down -1.03%.The markets are discounting a 27% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28.This week's market focus will be on US economic news. On Friday, Nov existing home sales are expected to be up +1.2% m/m to 4.15 million. Also, the University of Michigan ...

Some questions now being raised about how much we might trust this print. Our Steve Leeman's looking into that. I'm seeing the Brucellis response this morning.Uh [laughter] dude, that was one flawed report. >> That's one of my bullet points here, Carl. And you guys were just talking about this stocks loving this cooler than expected inflation report.The bond market and economists highly skeptical with many saying changes to the data gathering process. They started gathering data midmon distorted the numbers ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin investors are preparing for "Witching Friday" on December 18, which could lead to significant market volatility due to the expiration of approximately $23 billion in options contracts on Deribit, the largest Bitcoin exchange [1]. Group 1: Understanding "Witching Friday" - "Witching Friday," also known as "triple witching," occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, when stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options expire simultaneously, often resulting in increased market volatility [2]. - The expiration of these contracts typically generates higher trading activity and larger price swings, as it triggers buying or selling of the underlying securities [3]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Leading up to "Witching Friday," Bitcoin has been experiencing a decline, trading down nearly 1% to $85,184, influenced by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and uncertainty regarding the macroeconomic environment, including potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan and concerns over U.S. inflation in 2026 [4][5]. - Other cryptocurrencies are also affected, with XRP falling nearly 2% to around $1.82, while Ethereum remains stable at $2,802 [5].

Market Performance - Stocks rebounded strongly on Thursday, with the Nasdaq leading the recovery, jumping 313.04 points or 1.4 percent to 23,006.36 [1] - The S&P 500 advanced 53.33 points or 0.8 percent to 6,774.76, while the Dow closed up 65.88 points or 0.1 percent at 47,951.85 [1] Economic Indicators - The Labor Department reported a slowdown in the annual rate of consumer price growth, with consumer prices in November up by 2.7 percent year-over-year, down from 3.0 percent in September [2] - Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, also slowed to 2.6 percent in November from 3.0 percent in September, contrary to expectations of remaining unchanged [3] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks rebounded significantly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging by 2.5 percent, driven by Micron Technology's 10.2 percent increase after better-than-expected quarterly results [6] - Software and networking stocks also showed strength, contributing to the Nasdaq's rise [6] - Airline stocks performed strongly, while energy stocks declined after a previous rally [7] International Markets - In overseas trading, the Asia-Pacific region showed mixed performance, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index down by 1.0 percent and China's Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.2 percent [7] - Major European markets moved upward, with the German DAX Index increasing by 1.0 percent, the French CAC 40 Index by 0.8 percent, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index by 0.7 percent [8] Bond Market - Treasuries rose in response to the inflation data, leading to a decrease in the yield on the benchmark ten-year note by 3.5 basis points to 4.116 percent [9]

Group 1 - The University of Louisiana System has formed a presidential search committee for the University of Louisiana at Lafayette to guide the search process following the resignation of President Joseph Savoie after 17 years [1] - The committee will include representatives from the UL Lafayette community and key stakeholders, with the first meeting scheduled for January 14 [1] Group 2 - President Donald Trump signed an executive order to expedite the rescheduling of marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, aiming to expand cannabis research [2] - The rescheduling process was initially started by former President Joe Biden but remained unresolved when Trump took office [2] Group 3 - U.S. stocks experienced a significant rise following a positive inflation report, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions next year [3] - Micron Technology's strong profit report contributed to a temporary halt in the decline of AI stocks, with the S&P 500 increasing by 0.9% and the Nasdaq composite leading with a 1.5% rise [3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 124 points, or 0.3%, indicating overall market strength [3]

Economic Outlook - The consensus in the market suggests that next year will see robust economic growth, supported by fiscal and monetary tailwinds, as well as deregulation [7] - Clarity around trade policy and a government focused on economic performance ahead of midterm elections may reduce the need for significant Federal Reserve rate cuts [7] Inflation Trends - Current inflation data is viewed with skepticism, and there is an expectation of a higher inflation number in the next report due in mid-January [4] - Despite concerns, there is a belief that the pace of inflation is moderating, indicating a disinflationary trend [4] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates will depend on economic growth and inflation rates, with modest rate cuts possible if labor market softness is observed [8] - The Fed is unlikely to make drastic changes unless there is significant evidence of economic downturns, particularly in small businesses, which have not been hiring [8][9] Small Business Impact - Small businesses, which account for 46% of employment in the U.S., are a key area to monitor for hiring trends and overall economic health [9] - The NFIB small business sentiment survey will be an important indicator; stabilization and improvement in hiring from small companies could signal a bullish market outlook [10]

With the skepticism surrounding the inflation data, what should you do with your money. Do you go all in on stocks. Do you proceed with some more caution.Let's ask Rebecca Patterson, independent director at Vanguard and the former chief investment strategist at Bridgewwater. Great to see you first of all. >> Good to see you.>> Do do you I hate to put it quite this way. Do you care about the the vagaries of whether this report is reliable or not. Can you can you wait it out.Do you look to the market reaction ...

Stocks. Look at that. They are higher across the board.We had some cooler than expected inflation data, but there is growing skepticism over how reliable the CPI numbers may really be. Steve Leeman joining us now with more on this story, which is going to get some attention, Steve, because, you know, questioning the data is like a thing. >> It is, but not for political reasons, for methodological reasons.Brian, to use a very large television word, stocks, as you say, they're loving this much cooler than inf ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is rebounding after four consecutive days of declines, with technology stocks recovering due to strong demand for AI memory chips from Micron, which saw its shares surge over 12% [1] - Consumer discretionary stocks, including major tech companies like Amazon and Tesla, are performing well, alongside gains in restaurants, retail, travel, and leisure sectors, driven by easing inflationary pressures indicated by a cooler-than-expected consumer price index [1] Company Performance - Texas Roadhouse has rallied for two consecutive days, with additional shares purchased at lower levels [1] - Financial stocks have been strong performers, leading to raised price targets for Goldman Sachs ($925 from $850), Wells Fargo ($96 from $90), and Capital One ($270 from $250), although Capital One's rating has been downgraded to a 2 [1] - Capital One shares have increased approximately 20% since comments from New York Fed President John Williams regarding potential interest rate cuts, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's return of about 4% [1] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Nike, FedEx, and KB Home are set to report earnings after the market closes, while Conagra, Lamb Weston, Paychex, and Carnival Corp will report before the market opens on Friday [1] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index and one-year inflation expectations will also be released [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - U.S. tech ETFs experienced a rally due to a cooler-than-expected inflation figure, which dampened Treasury yields [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November was reported at 2.7% year-over-year, alleviating inflation concerns, while the core inflation rate softened to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021 [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield moved closer to 4.11%, providing strong support for long-duration growth assets [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector Performance - The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) saw a 2.4% increase, benefiting from strong earnings reported by Micron Technology Inc [3][4] - The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) advanced by 3%, as easing inflation allowed the Federal Reserve to support growth without reigniting price pressures [4] - Micron's earnings beat reinforced optimism regarding memory pricing and AI-driven demand, lifting the broader chip complex [4] Group 3: Broader Tech Sector Gains - Nasdaq-linked ETFs, including the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, showed gains due to lower yields, which lifted valuations in megacap tech companies [5] - The Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF gained traction, reflecting renewed investor appetite for companies with longer-dated cash flows, as inflation effects dampened and bond yields receded [6] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Despite the enthusiasm in semiconductor ETFs, there are concerns about valuations having little margin to withstand potential disappointments if inflation figures and earnings trends turn negative [7] - Some investors are pairing tech-intensive ETFs with equal-weight or low volatility strategies to hedge against downside risk [7] - Cooling inflation and reduced yields are currently seen as potent catalysts for tech ETFs, with semiconductors leading the charge [8]