Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Reactions - The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.17%, driven by weakness in GBP/USD and the yen, as UK consumer prices rose less than expected and Japanese fiscal concerns weigh on the yen [1] - The dollar is under pressure due to the Fed's liquidity boost, with the central bank purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills starting last Friday [2] - Markets are concerned about President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair, which could negatively impact the dollar [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Governor Christopher Waller described the US labor market as "pretty soft" with close to zero job growth, while inflation remains "pretty well anchored" around 2% [3] - Interest rates are still 50-100 basis points above neutral, allowing the Fed to lower them steadily without urgency [3] - The market is pricing in a 24% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming January 27-28 meeting [3] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The euro (EUR/USD) is down by -0.04% due to a stronger dollar and negative Eurozone economic news, including a downward revision of November CPI and the smallest increase in Q3 labor costs in three years [4] - The unexpected decline in the German December IFO business conditions survey to a 7-month low is also bearish for the euro [4] - Divergent central bank policies support the euro, as the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates while the ECB is seen to have completed its rate-cutting campaign [5] - Eurozone November CPI was revised downward to +2.1% year-on-year from +2.2% year-on-year [5]

Core Insights - The markets in 2025 have shown volatility, with both bullish and bearish trends impacting investor strategies [1] - The Social Security Administration has projected a 2.8% Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026, which may not keep pace with rising inflation at approximately 3% [2] High-Yield ETFs - Two high-yield ETFs are highlighted as potential alternatives for income-focused investors: the State Street Blackstone High Income ETF (HYBL) and the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD) [3] - The State Street Blackstone High Income ETF (HYBL) has around $545 million in assets under management and offers a dividend yield of 7.2%, significantly higher than the projected COLA increase [5] - HYBL aims to generate strong total returns with high income while maintaining lower volatility compared to broader bond and credit markets, investing in high-yield corporate bonds, senior loans, equity, and U.S. CLO debt tranches [5][6] - The top holdings of HYBL include Fair Isaac Corp 4%, JetBlue Airways Corp / JetBlue Loyalty LP 9.875%, and Cloud Software Group/Balboa/Citrix, reflecting a diversified economic exposure [6] - The SPYD ETF tracks the 80 highest dividend-yielding S&P 500 stocks and has a low fee of 0.07% [7]

Economic Indicators - Weekly initial unemployment claims in the US are expected to decrease by 11,000 to 225,000 [1] - November CPI is projected to rise by 3.1% year-over-year, while core CPI is expected to increase by 3.0% year-over-year [1] - Existing home sales for November are anticipated to rise by 1.2% month-over-month to 4.15 million [1] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for December is expected to be revised upward by 0.2 to 53.5 [1] Mortgage Applications - US MBA weekly mortgage applications fell by 3.8% for the week ending December 12, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down by 2.8% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down by 3.6% [2] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased by 5 basis points to 6.38% from 6.33% in the previous week [2] Stock Market Movements - Homebuilding stocks are experiencing declines, led by a 3% drop in Lennar after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 EPS [4][13] - Energy producers are rising, with WTI crude oil increasing by over 1% following President Trump's announcement of an oil blockade on Venezuela [5][12] - Mixed performance in stock indexes: S&P 500 down by 0.05%, Dow Jones up by 0.43%, and Nasdaq down by 0.33% [6] International Markets - Overseas stock markets show mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.21%, Shanghai Composite up by 1.19%, and Nikkei Stock 225 up by 0.26% [7] Bond Market - The 10-year T-note yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.17%, influenced by rising bond yields in Japan [4][8] - The yield curve is steepening, which is generally bearish for T-note prices, as investors buy short-term government debt and sell long-term debt [9] Company-Specific News - Jabil Inc reported Q1 net revenue of $8.31 billion, exceeding consensus estimates, and raised its 2026 net revenue forecast to $32.4 billion [14] - Netflix shares rose by over 2% as Warner Bros. Discovery plans to reject a takeover bid from Paramount Skydance [16] - Progressive Corp's net premiums written fell by 12% month-over-month, leading to a decline of over 3% in its stock [17]

Core Viewpoint - General Mills Inc. reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenue, reaffirming its fiscal 2026 outlook, indicating strong consumer demand and effective brand investments despite ongoing cost pressures [1][10]. Financial Performance - The company achieved second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.10, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.03 [2]. - Quarterly sales reached $4.86 billion, a 7% decline year over year, but exceeded the expected $4.781 billion [3]. - Organic net sales decreased by 1%, attributed to unfavorable price realization and product mix [3]. Segment Performance - North America Retail segment net sales fell 13% to $2.9 billion [5]. - North America Pet segment sales increased by 11% to $660 million [5]. - North America Foodservice segment sales decreased by 8% to $582 million [5]. - International segment net sales rose by 6% to $729 million, with organic net sales up 4%, driven by growth in Brazil, China, India, and North Asia [5]. Operational Metrics - Constant-currency net sales at Cereal Partners Worldwide fell by 1%, while Häagen-Dazs Japan remained flat year over year [6]. - Joint ventures reported a $60 million after-tax loss, a shift from a $30 million profit last year, due to an $85 million non-cash goodwill impairment related to CPW Australia [6]. - Adjusted gross margin decreased by 150 basis points to 34.8% of net sales, primarily due to higher input costs [7]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates organic net sales to range from a 1% decline to 1% growth [10]. - Adjusted operating profit and adjusted diluted EPS are projected to decline by 10% to 15% in constant currency [10]. - General Mills plans to invest in brand initiatives to drive volume-led organic sales growth, expecting a 25% increase in sales from new products in fiscal 2026 [10]. - Management indicated that brand investments are expected to support long-term growth despite short-term profit and EPS pressures [11][12].

A finalist to replace Powell sees room for 100 basis points of rate cuts. ...

Labor Market Assessment - The labor market is currently soft, with recent job growth averaging around 50,000 to 60,000 jobs per month [3] - This level of job growth is considered too high and likely to be revised downwards based on unemployment insurance administrative data, potentially nearing zero job growth [3][4] - Uncertainty surrounding AI is causing companies to delay hiring decisions, impacting the labor market [7] Monetary Policy and Inflation - Preemptive rate cuts initiated in September were intended to soften the economic impact of tariff uncertainty [4] - The speaker is not particularly worried about inflation, believing it will come down in the next three to four months [5][6] - Inflation expectations are well-anchored around 2% based on market pricing and TIPS [6] - The speaker advocates for continued rate cuts, viewing inflation as under control and the labor market as needing support [11] - A moderate pace of rate cuts is preferred, as dramatic action suggests waiting too long [12] Future Outlook - 2026 could be a better year due to the resolution of tariff uncertainty and potential productivity gains from AI [4][5] - The effects of tariffs are considered a one-time price effect, not expected to cause persistent inflation [10]

The September inflation reading of 3% represents moderate price growth, which is above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% but well below the elevated rates seen in 2022 and early 2023. ...

Good morning. CFOs are ending 2025 more confident, even as they confront a mixed growth outlook and mounting pressure to deliver efficiency gains from AI. Deloitte’s Q4 2025 CFO Signals report, released this morning, finds the CFO Confidence Score at 6.6, higher than the Q3 reading of 5.7, and the highest score since late 2021. The score, the highest 10, measures CFO confidence in economic conditions and sentiment about the capital markets. CFOs raised their assessment of the North American economy this q ...

Core Insights - More than 20% of women have no cash savings, and those who do have an average of $54,000, which is less than the $62,000 average for men, highlighting a significant savings gap [1][3] Group 1: Financial Realities for Women - Unique financial challenges such as caregiving responsibilities, career breaks, and the gender pay gap contribute to women's lower savings [3] - Rising costs and inflation further complicate the ability to save, making it difficult for women to build a financial cushion [3] Group 2: Positive Trends and Actions - An increasing number of women are prioritizing financial well-being by creating emergency funds and planning for the future [4] - The study indicates that nearly 25% of women have less than $1,000 saved for emergencies, and 20% have no emergency fund at all, suggesting a need for increased financial literacy and action [7] Group 3: Savings Strategies - Recommendations for boosting savings include automating savings, wisely using windfalls, choosing high-yield savings accounts, and trimming unnecessary expenses [7] - The importance of tailoring savings to individual circumstances is emphasized, suggesting that savings should align with personal financial situations [6]

Economic Outlook - UK inflation data came in cooler than expected, increasing the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut [1] - The industry is questioning whether recent weak economic data signals a temporary dip or a larger UK downturn [1]